It can be easy to tilt and question even the easiest start/sit decisions — especially In the fantasy football playoffs. Can we trust the recent boom performances? Should we stick with the stars that got us to the postseason who have disappointed lately? Dalton Del Don is here to help us gauge the trustworthiness of certain players in fantasy’s biggest weeks.
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
Robinson Jr. lost two fumbles over the first 17 minutes of last week’s game, when he posted his worst fantasy performance of the season during the semifinals. Robinson Jr. hadn’t committed a single fumble all season before Sunday’s game, and he was facing an Eagles defense that entered allowing the lowest EPA/rush since Week 9. Philadelphia hasn’t let a running back run for 100 yards this season, and the Eagles had ceded the fewest rush schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs over the previous five weeks. Moreover, Robinson Jr. has been game-script-sensitive all year, and the Commanders were trailing for most of the matchup.
Robinson Jr. carries extra risk now should he lose another early fumble in Week 17, but he should remain Washington’s workhorse otherwise. The Commanders are four-point favorites with a healthy implied team total (26.5 points), so Sunday night’s matchup is more favorable. Robinson Jr. has gotten 5.1 YPC at home this season and sees good usage in the red zone. He can be trusted as a top-20 RB this week.
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Irving had a nice game last week, but fantasy managers were frustrated with him not playing for most of the fourth quarter. Irving didn’t see a touch over the final 10 minutes (15 plays), ceding playing time to Rachaad White. Irving is shaky in pass protection, but White lost a fumble to end the game. Even if White remains the Bucs’ more trusted back in pass protection, game script should prove favorable for Irving in the fantasy championship.
Irving saw 17-of-25 RB opportunities through three quarters last week, and Tampa Bay is eight-point favorites Sunday. The Buccaneers have the highest implied team total (29.5 points) in the league this week facing a Carolina defense allowing the most schedule-adjusted rushing fantasy points to RBs over the last five weeks. Irving is a budding star who’s third in the NFL in missed tackles forced per attempt, and he appears to be over his back injury.
White remains a thorn, but Irving can be trusted fully as a top-10 back in the fantasy championship.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Wilson has been the WR21 in fantasy points per game this season, which qualifies as a big disappointment given his ADP. It took a few games for Davante Adams to get healthy and acclimated in New York after the trade, but he’s been the Jets’ clear WR1 over the last six weeks. Wilson has been fantasy’s WR41 and has a 22.5% target share since Week 10; Adams sports a 32.5% target share over that span (the fourth-highest in the league). Wilson saw 11.0 targets per game without Adams on the field, but he’s seen 8.2 with him on it.
Wilson gets a fading Bills’ pass defense allowing the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers over the last five weeks. Wilson is frustrated, and the squeaky wheel may get the grease this week. But Aaron Rodgers has continued to favor his buddy Adams, and New York’s implied team total is a lowly 17.5 points. Given his beta usage and saddled by a Jets offense that somehow scored just nine points while never punting last week, Wilson’s trust level has fallen to low-end WR2. And he’d become a bench candidate should Rodgers not be able to go.
Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns
Jeudy was fantasy’s WR4 over Weeks 11-15, as only Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams and Puka Nacua averaged more fantasy points over that five-game span. But the QB switch from Jameis Winston to Dorian Thompson-Robinson ended that party as expected last week; DTR had zero net passing yards at halftime. The Browns produced only 67 catchable air yards; they averaged 171 with Winston starting.
Thompson-Robinson is 0-for-11 with three picks on passes thrown 15+ yards this season. He’s a major problem for Cleveland pass catchers, and DTR has been named the Browns’ starter again in Week 17 if healthy. Winston was inactive last week with a shoulder injury, and Bailey Zappe is the team’s QB3. Cleveland has an anemic 16.5-point implied total this week.
If Winston is somehow healthy and starting, Jeudy’s fantasy value can be resurrected. But he otherwise belongs firmly on benches during fantasy championship week.