A Donald Trump presidency: 10 experts on Canada-U.S. relations say it does Canada no good

It would be catastrophic. Trump’s tariffs policies would disrupt the Canadian economy, his immigration policies would create tremendous difficulties (moral, legal, financial) for Canada, and his foreign policies would mean that Canada would be on its own to deal with the bullies of the world—China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S.Stephen Saideman, international affairs expert, Carleton University

In general, I think a Trump victory would have the potential to further threaten the collective spirit that animates much of Canadian policy. That collective spirit is especially crucial for universal programs such as healthcare and public education. Luckily, we have these great bones in Canada, but we have to work hard to protect them and to stop the erosion of public trust in these programs. This collective spirit and these universal programs are critical in the fight against the kind of mass inequality which plagues the U.S.Stacy Douglas, associate professor, Department of Law and Legal Studies, Carleton University

If Trump wins, the consequences will be potentially seismic and not just for Canada but globally. It is not just the tariffs that he says he will impose of U.S. trading partners, 10 to 20 per cent, and China, 60 per cent or higher. If we are not exempt from those tariffs, it would likely throw the Canadian economy into a recession.Fen Hampson, Canadian foreign policy expert, Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations

A Trump victory is likely to complicate trade issues in Canada, especially if there is an across the board tariff. And there will be strains on NAFTA as Trump will test those boundaries, both with Canada and with Mexico. That will be true regardless of which party forms the next government in Canada.Larry LeDuc, political science expert, University of Toronto

I sincerely hope nobody in Canada takes examples from the thuggery in the U.S., particularly happening at polling places and Democratic headquarters. But we also know there has been thuggery in Canada, such as when Liberal MP Catherine McKenna’s office got trashed. But the outright violence and election denialism I really hope does not get into Canada. Thus far, you have not had a Trumpist candidate who incites their followers to violence.Melissa Haussman, professor and author, Carleton University

A Trump victory would signal that the resurgence of global neo-fascisms that the world has experienced since 2016 (from Washington D.C. to Buenos Aires, to London, Moscow, New Delhi, and beyond) has not yet run its course. I would expect a Trump victory to embolden Canadian Conservatives to embrace ever more extreme rhetoric and policies on a whole raft of issues from immigration to education, to healthcare, and to climate change.Philip Kaisary, cultural comparativist, Carleton University

I don’t think it’s going to go well, whatsoever. He’s (Donald Trump) already putting things into place to contest the election before it even happens. He’s now claiming that early polls show he’s way ahead, which will raise doubt when he doesn’t win. Mike Johnson, who is the Speaker of the House, seems to be hooked to the hip with Donald Trump.Brian Schmidt, American foreign policy expert, Carleton University

A Trump victory would further add support to a deeply antagonistic style of politics practiced not just by Poilievre but by the premiers of three of Canada’s largest provinces—Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta.Peter Hodgins, associate professor of politics, Carleton University

A Donald Trump victory would not be good for Canada for a myriad of reasons. Chiefly among them is the uncertainty it would bring to our most important economic relationship, rising global instability from a more insular and isolationist presidency that could see crucial support pulled from allies like Ukraine, a greater challenge to our collective ability to combat climate change from a weakening American commitment to mitigation efforts, and, more broadly, the growing threat of democratic backsliding and authoritarianism just across our southern border.Lewis Krashinsky, political behaviour expert, University of Toronto

He will destabilize trade relations. Instability means uncertainty and uncertainty is bad for business. More specifically, Trump has promised to impose across-the-board tariffs on imports which would effect all kinds of Canadian sectors, including those that are deeply integrated with the U.S., like the auto sector. The USMCA comes up for renegotiation in 2026 (halfway through the next presidential term), which could also be destabilizing. The USMCA is the economic rulebook for North American trade and changing the rules creates economic uncertainty.Aaron Ettinger, U.S. foreign policy expert expert, Carleton University