The potential labour disruption at Air Canada could cost the economy $1.4 billion, according to a new report from Fédération des caisses Desjardins du Québec.
Economists Randall Bartlett and LJ Valencia, estimate that a two-week pilot strike at Canada’s largest carrier could result in daily losses of roughly $98 million, a 0.06 per cent month-over-month loss to real GDP in September.
“Because of its outsized role in the Canadian airline market, a prolonged pilot strike could negatively impact economic activity,” they wrote.
The number of passengers could decrease by 2.1 million, a 29 per cent decline from the previous month, they added.
Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge operate close to 670 daily flights on average, carrying more than 110,000 passengers within Canada or internationally. Air Canada Cargo is the country’s largest air carrier of goods by capacity.
Air Canada pilots could walk off the job as early as Sept. 18. The airline is preparing to wind down operations as early as Friday, in preparation for Sept. 15, when either the union or the company may issue a 72-hour strike or lockout notice.
Air Canada said its talks with the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) was nearing an impasse over wage demands.
Business groups on Wednesday expressed “deep concern” over the looming pilot strike, which they said would significantly disrupt Canada’s supply chain.
“The potential for a labour disruption is alarming, given the wide-reaching implications it would have on Canadians, the nation’s economy, supply chains and our global reputation,” said the letter by Canadian Chamber of Commerce signed by 41 business groups and 53 local chambers of commerce.
The group was to hold a press conference in Ottawa on Thursday to urge the federal government to take action to prevent the potential labour disruptions.
The Desjardins economists said their study assumes a strike would last two weeks, similar to the last major Air Canada pilot strike in September 1998. During that time, Air Canada’s losses were estimated at $200 million, or approximately $355 million in today’s prices.
• Email: dpaglinawan@postmedia.com
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