No rest for the weary this week as an uptick in hurricane activity continues across the Atlantic basin.
Forecasters are watching multiple areas of interest for tropical development over the next couple of days, including a new tropical depression that may strengthen into a major hurricane by the end of the week.
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An unusual October hurricane in the works
A new tropical depression formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects Tropical Depression Twelve to gradually strengthen into a hurricane over the next couple of days as it moves northwest toward the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.
If the depression grows into a tropical storm, it’ll earn the name Kirk. This would be the eleventh named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and the seventh storm to grow into a hurricane.
Not only is the system on track to become a hurricane, but it’s likely going to grow into a major hurricane by the end of the week, the NHC said on Sunday. It’s unusual for a major hurricane to form this far east in the Atlantic during the month of October.
A new tropical depression developed in the eastern Atlantic – while this will fortunately stay well offshore far from North America, the NHC forecast for a major hurricane is extremely rare for an October storm in the main development region (MDR) east of 50W: pic.twitter.com/JZE9XDbSzB
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) September 29, 2024
Hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean tends to form much closer to North America as the season wears on, and it’s common to see major hurricanes form close to the Caribbean and United States in October.
If the forecast comes to pass, soon-to-be-Kirk would join just a handful of hurricanes that have intensified to major Category 3 status this far east so late in the year.
The developing storm poses no immediate threat to land.
A growing disturbance in the Caribbean
We’re also watching a disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea for signs of tropical development in the coming days. The NHC gives this system a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical system through this week.
This is a very sensitive time for a storm to develop given that folks from Florida to North Carolina are still reeling from Hurricane Helene’s devastating strike last week.
Models are struggling with the future of this disturbance and where it may track if it winds up developing in the days ahead. It’s worth closely monitoring for potential impacts around the Gulf of Mexico.
Joyce and Isaac are on their way out
On top of those developing systems, we’ve still got two active storms out in the Atlantic, both of which are approaching the end of their lifespans.
Tropical Storm Isaac is a former hurricane that’s racing toward the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Joyce is in the same vicinity as soon-to-be Kirk, and it’s expected to dissipate early this week.
We’re still in the heart of hurricane season through much of October, and the season doesn’t end until November 30. Stay alert for rapidly changing conditions over the coming days and weeks, and always make sure you’re prepared well before storms ever threaten land.
Stay with The Weather Network for all the latest throughout hurricane season.