(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks may struggle in early trading after Chinese economic measures underwhelmed and the release of anemic inflation data over the weekend. Bitcoin topped $80,000 after President-elect Donald Trump took a clean sweep of the seven US battleground states.
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Equity futures from Sydney to Tokyo and Hong Kong signal losses on Monday after China’s 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 billion) plan to help local governments deal with hidden debt stopped short of including new measures to boost domestic demand. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% on Friday as US stocks capped their best week this year in anticipation of Trump’s pro-growth agenda.
A softer start is expected in Asia after the region’s stocks jumped 2.4% last week amid improved sentiment following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut and hopes for more stimulus in China. Investors are now shifting to assess how quickly Trump will implement his fiscal and protectionist trade policies, including proposed tariffs on China.
“The market’s next move will hinge on whether Trump prioritizes cutting taxes or raising tariffs, each having vastly different impact,” Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets in Sydney, wrote in a note. “This clarification may still be months away and it’s worth remembering that back in 2016, Trump’s first move was to cut taxes which sent stock markets surging before tariffs on China caused headwinds.”
Sentiment toward China is faltering as foreign direct investment slumps amid geopolitical tensions, competition from domestic industries and concerns over the nation’s economic outlook. Consumer inflation eased closer to zero in October, suggesting the government’s latest round of stimulus is far from sufficient to free the economy from the grip of deflation.
“Many feel that China is keeping its tactical powder in play for such time as the Trump-China tariff negotiations build, and they can respond in a more targeted fashion to stem the likely economic fallout,” Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne wrote in a note. “In the short-term, however, it does suggest downside risk to China/Hong Kong equity and the yuan.”
The dollar edged higher against major peers in early Asian trading, extending last week’s gain amid concerns that Trump’s fiscal policies will stoke inflation. While the US Treasury yield curve flattened Friday, firms including BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, and TCW Group are warning that the bond market selloff is likely far from over.