The first two years of Unai Emery’s reign as Aston Villa manager was a frictionless ascent from relegation fears to Champions League music.
But over the international break Villa were left to stew on four consecutive defeats in all competitions and a record of just one win in six in the Premier League. It is, by any measure, the lowest ebb of the Emery era so far.
It’s a minor blip not a crisis, salvageable with a few tweaks or a slice of good luck, yet there is a feeling that Aston Villa aren’t quite as good as they were this time last year.
Injury and fatigue, a knock-on effect of Champions League football, is surely a factor, but analysis of their Premier League performances in 2024-25 reveals four tactical issues for Emery to solve.
Bailey off form; Diaby sold – Villa lack incision
Winger Leon Bailey has just two goal involvements in the Premier League after hitting 19 in 2023-24. With the £50m sale of Moussa Diaby – who managed 14 goal involvements – Villa’s creative output has reduced.
They could really do with Ian Maatsen’s movement in behind, because at the moment too much of Villa’s play is funnelled through the excellent Morgan Rogers.
Emery has tried to shake this up recently, bringing on Jhon Duran to play alongside Ollie Watkins.
But whereas Rogers – or Diaby last year – can link midfield and attack, Villa’s strikers tend to create bigger gaps between the lines, prompting that second-half collapse at Spurs, losing 4-1.
Spurs scored twice within 10 minutes of Duran coming on for Rogers, after which the game became stretched as Villa’s front two – both making forward runs – pulled the team lengthways and emptied midfield.
It allowed Tottenham to repeatedly drive through open spaces and score almost at will.
It’s only a small problem. Bailey, John McGinn, and Jacob Ramsey could all find form soon, and in fact Villa’s attacking numbers are broadly similar to last season.
Their xG has dropped slightly from 1.70 expected goals per game to 1.52 per game but they have still created the second most ‘big chances’ in the Premier League (37).
Watkins had a prolific 2023-24, with 19 goals and 13 assists in the Premier League, although he missed 22 ‘big chances’ – the fourth most.
This season, Watkins has already missed more ‘big chances’ (11) than anyone else in the division after 11 games, scoring five league goals.
Improved defence overshadowed by mistakes
Villa’s defensive record is a reason for optimism.
They’re making far too many errors leading to shots – nine already, compared with 11 across the whole of last season – but their expected goals against per 90 minutes statistic is actually down, from 1.56 per 90 last season to 1.08 (not including penalties).
That’s the fourth best score in the division behind Arsenal, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool.
That’s partly explained by Emery dropping the defensive line a little deeper.
Last season Villa allowed more through balls (124) than anyone else. This year they have allowed the fewest (13).
One eye-catching statistic is goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez having the fourth lowest save percentage in the division (60.5%) and the Argentine also ranks third bottom for conceding more goals than expected, according to Opta’s expected goals on target model (-2.2).
Martinez’s save percentage in 2023-24 was 66.4% and 72.1% in 2022-23.
So, at both ends it is a case of minor details; mistakes at the back, profligate finishing up front.
Luiz sale weakened Villa’s midfield control
From the sluggish 0-0 draw with Manchester United to the stretched and open 4-1 defeat by Tottenham Hotspur, Villa just aren’t playing with the same sense of control since Douglas Luiz was sold to Juventus in the summer.
The stats bear this out.
Comparing this season to last, Villa’s average possession in the Premier League over the first quarter of the season has dropped from 52.8% to 50.5%, while their passes completed and progressive passes have also declined.
The knock-on effect is twofold.
Villa are playing slightly deeper and less assertively, such as in draws with Man Utd and Bournemouth. While also taking part in games that are less compressed, creating space between the lines, hence the wildness of the Spurs defeat or the 2-2 draw with Ipswich.
Luiz and Boubacar Kamara, the partnership that led Villa to 46 points from the first 23 league games of last season, has been replaced with Amadou Onana and Youri Tielemans.
Both have played well, but the style shift is affecting Villa’s ability to control games.
Onana is less involved than Kamara, averaging 40 passes per 90 minutes this season compared with Kamara’s 55.6 per 90 last season, although swapping Luiz for Tielemans has proved the bigger issue.
Tielemans and Luiz may attempt a similar number of passes but Tielemans’ are more vertical and direct, explaining why Villa’s possession share has dropped.
For a clearer example of this difference – of how Tielemans’ style stretches Villa more, making them vulnerable to disjointed passing or end-to-end games – take a look at a typical pass map for both players below:
Villa’s changed build-up phase affects their control
Luckily for Villa, Kamara is now back from injury. That can help their control of midfield – and of central defence.
Last season Kamara (number 44 in the graphic below) was instructed to drop into a back three alongside the centre-backs when Villa had the ball, creating a more solid central base which to build possession and attacks.
In 2024-25, Villa have shifted to a less secure back two.
Villa’s ball progression has suffered: their touches per 90 minutes have dropped from 606.8 to 567.0 this season, and 67% of those have been in their own third, according to football data provider FBRef.
In other words, Villa aren’t passing it out from the back in the same measured way.
Fixing this may be as simple as moving Kamara back, which could increase Villa’s control and possession share, as well as theoretically allow Emery to integrate his more attacking left-back, Maatsen, free to roam forward with a back three holding down the fort.
An alternative would be to sign a new right-back, as Emery reportedly attempted in the summer, which would allow Ezri Konsa to move permanently back into central defence in place of Diego Carlos.
Carlos is defending well but his passing is rarely incisive or line-breaking, whereas Konsa excels at progressing the ball even when under pressure.
At the moment, the setup is lacking sharpness and Duran’s late goals have been papering over cracks.
Emery needs his best attackers to find form, his defence to sharpen up, and Kamara to hold things together at the base of midfield.