Atlanta Hawks 2024-25 season preview: Why the stakes are high for Trae Young and Co.

The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We’re breaking down the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 teams. Enjoy!

ATLANTA HAWKS

2023-24 finish

Offseason moves

• Additions: Zaccharie Risacher, Nikola Đurišić, Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr., Cody Zeller, David Roddy, Keaton Wallace, Dominick Barlow

• Subtractions: Dejounte Murray, Saddiq Bey, Wesley Matthews, Bruno Fernando, Trent Forrest, AJ Griffin, Dylan Windler

• Complete roster

The Big Question: Can Atlanta build a decent defense around Trae Young?

I know: Not exactly the most original question. But despite the All-Star pick-and-roll playmaking dynamo producing three top-10 finishes in offensive efficiency in six pro seasons, Atlanta has won just 45% of its games since drafting Young. The only season in which it advanced beyond the opening round of the playoffs? You guessed it: the only one in which it fielded a league-average defense.

So: If the Hawks aren’t going to trade Young (and you’d assume they’re not, judging by the fact that they moved his backcourt partner instead, for a return evidently greater than what they could recoup by flipping the remaining $138 million on Trae’s contract), and if they’re not going to tank (a safe bet, considering the Spurs still control their 2025, 2026 and 2027 first-round picks from 2022’s Murray trade), then they need to try to be pretty good. (What a concept!) And that would seem to require building a more watertight defense than the unit that has finished bottom-five in points scored per possession in five of the last seven seasons.

The good news: Quin Snyder has some tools to work with there.

Jalen Johnson raised eyebrows with his offensive breakthrough in his third season: 16 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game, shooting 68% at the rim and 38% on above-the-break 3-pointers. But the 22-year-old with the 6-foot-9, 220-pound frame and 7-foot wingspan made his presence felt on the other end, too, averaging 4.4 combined steals, blocks and deflections per 36 minutes of floor time.

A player with the size and quickness to guard either forward spot who also grabs a quarter of available defensive rebounds can help a team just by eating up space. With Johnson on the floor, the Hawks’ largely feckless defense allowed nearly four fewer points per 100 possessions than when he was off of it.

The return from the Murray trade should help, too. Veteran Nance brings smarts, leadership, versatility and active hands, consistently posting elite steal rates for a big man. The prize, though, could prove to be former lottery pick Daniels, a 6-foot-8 Aussie with a 6-foot-11 wingspan, enough speed to stick with smaller ball-handlers, enough strength to body bigger wings, and a penchant for wreaking havoc; among players to log 1,000 minutes, only Matisse Thybulle, Alex Caruso and Dennis Smith Jr. logged as many steals and deflections per minute last season.

If Daniels can get his jumper online — just 31.2% from deep as a Pelican, and 36.7% from the short corners — he could be a perfect fit next to Young in the backcourt, taking on the toughest defensive assignments while serving as a complementary playmaker and off-ball cutter on offense.

Between Johnson, Daniels, Nance and De’Andre Hunter, that’s a lot of defensive options to deploy in the project of insulating Young. And if top overall pick Risacher, a 6-foot-8, 215-pound swingman with a 6-foot-10 wingspan who profiles as a versatile and smart defender, looks as comfortable on that end as he did offensively in his preseason debut …

… then this could be the best combination of length, physicality and athleticism on the perimeter that Atlanta’s put around Young yet. Make some improvements containing the ball, pair that with solid rim protection from Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, and maybe these Hawks climb out of the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency.

And with a steady floor beneath him, maybe Young — who’s now one of just three players ever with multiple seasons averaging 25 points and 10 assists per game, and who had the Hawks offense humming like the friggin’ Celtics in the minutes he played without Murray last season …

… can offer more reminders of why Atlanta went all-in to build around him in the first place.

Best-case scenario

The new arrivals produce something like the 18th-best defense in the NBA, marking this edition of the Hawks as somewhat more serious than the last couple of iterations. With that steady backbeat behind him, Young rips off a face-melting solo of a regular season, leading the league in scoring and assists as he vaults Atlanta back into the top three in points scored per possession. With Trae at the controls, Johnson earning (some) All-Star buzz, Risacher showing promise and Bogdan Bogdanović vying for Sixth Man of the Year, the Hawks blow past .500 all the way … to 46 wins, which at least gets them out of the lower half of the play-in bracket. Progress!

If everything falls apart

Another disastrous defense leads to progressively more rancid vibes, as the enervating sense that you can’t build a winner around Young permeates the organization and fanbase. We’re reminded that progress isn’t linear, as Johnson struggles to build on his near-Most Improved Player breakout now that he occupies a more prominent spot on the scouting report. Risacher fizzles more than he flashes, leading to renewed laments over the grim luck of winning this lottery. The Hawks are a little better on defense and a little worse on offense, and the result is another mid-30s win total followed by either making the play-in virtually by default or — even worse — falling short of that, thus handing the Spurs a golden ticket in the Cooper Flagg lottery.

Fantasy spin

There’s precedent of Young being worthy of a first-round pick in fantasy. Young finished 12th in per-game value and fourth in total value in the 2021-22 season before Murray went to the A. Now that Murray is gone, expect Young to carry a 30-plus percent usage rate and average 25 points with 10 assists this season.

Johnson missed 26 games last season, but he has an elite fantasy profile. He’ll cost a late-third rounder, while Bogdanović’s ADP remains too low despite trending up over the past week to a mid-eighth-round selection. Bogi is a good source of points, 3s and steals. Keep an eye on Daniels as a late-round flier.

I’m still drafting more shares of Okongwu (ADP 117) than Capela (91.5), primarily because of ADP. Capela is an automatic double-double. I’ve just grown concerned about his minutes diminishing over the past four seasons and the Hawks’ long-term financial commitment to Okongwu. Okongwu has been efficient on a per-minute basis while also helping fantasy managers in FG%, blocks and rebounds. — Dan Titus

2024-25 schedule

Moving on from Murray represented a talent downgrade, but I think this roster fits better than its predecessor, which won 36 games despite Young, Johnson, Okongwu and Hunter combining to miss 106 games. Slightly better health luck, slightly better depth and slightly better performance in crunch time — Atlanta was just 21-26 in games that were within five points in the final five minutes — might make for a slightly better outcome. I’ll take the over (although not by much).