Monday, December 16, 2024

Behind the Warriors’ sudden rebirth — and why they look like legit title contenders again

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As much as the dynastic era of Golden State Warriors basketball was built on Stephen Curry fundamentally reshaping the geometry of the sport, it also depended upon defenses that consistently cut off opposing offenses’ oxygen.

The shift started under Mark Jackson, who shepherded a 51-win breakthrough for the long-moribund franchise in 2013-14 behind the scintillating shooting of Curry and Klay Thompson … and a defense that ranked third in the NBA in points allowed per possession outside of garbage time. From there, Steve Kerr and chief lieutenant Ron Adams iterated on the formula to historic success. Golden State finished first in defensive efficiency in 2014-15, en route to the first NBA championship of the Steph era; fourth in the 2015-16 season, which saw the Dubs win an NBA-record 73 games as arguably the greatest regular-season team of all time; back up to first in 2016-17, their first year with Kevin Durant, when they became arguably the greatest team of all time period.

Even in the final two Durant seasons, in which the Warriors at times engaged Chill Mode by relying on their overwhelming offense to breeze past most competition, Golden State still boasted top-10 units. And when Curry, Kerr, Thompson and Draymond Green returned to the top of the mountain in 2021-22, two injury-plagued and “two timelines”-inflected years later … they did it on the back of the NBA’s No. 2 defense.

(Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports Illustration)

(Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports Illustration)

After finishing 15th in defensive efficiency and 10th in the West last season, punctuated by a play-in round exit at the hands of the longtime-little-brother Kings, the Warriors looked poised to plummet: Thompson on his way out, no big fish replacing him, a slew of unproven youngsters and journeymen surrounding Curry and Green, their beards now flecked with gray. But where others saw them rushing toward the bottom, the Warriors saw an opportunity to get back to basics.

“It’s still about winning, and taking the steps necessary to give ourselves a chance,” Curry told Marcus Thompson II of The Athletic this summer after signing a one-year, $62.6 million contract extension. “The standard hasn’t changed. The expectation hasn’t changed.”

After taking down old pal Klay and the Mavericks at Chase Center on Tuesday, the Warriors sit at 9-2. And while there’s been plenty to love about Golden State’s offense in the early going, from the lowest turnover rate of the Kerr era and a dramatic uptick in shot attempts at the rim to Green taking 3s at his highest rate in a decade (and making 45.7% of them, his highest rate ever) and Steph being, y’know, Steph

… the biggest reason the Warriors are vying for the top spot in the West is a defense that has been one of the NBA’s crispest, most disruptive and flat-out nastiest in the season’s opening weeks.

The Warriors enter their Friday’s Emirates NBA Cup matchup against the Grizzlies fourth in the NBA in points allowed per possession outside of garbage time, according to Cleaning the Glass. New defensive coordinator Jerry Stackhouse has the Dubs flying around and wreaking havoc, discombobulating offenses in just about every way possible: Golden State ranks third in the NBA in steals, seventh in blocks, second in deflections and first in charges drawn, with Green leading the league and second-year nuisance Brandin Podziemski tied for second.

All told, the Warriors have forced turnovers on 16% of opponents’ offensive possessions — the eighth-highest share in the NBA, and the highest of any Golden State squad since that first ’14-15 title team.

Thompson’s exit, paired with the inability to land potential game-changers Paul George or Lauri Markkanen during the offseason, left a bitter taste in the mouths of many Warriors fans. Credit to general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr., then, for turning lemons into lemonade, filling the rotation spots of the outgoing Thompson, Chris Paul and Dario Šarić with Buddy Hield, Kyle Anderson, De’Anthony Melton and Lindy Waters III. Slot in those newcomers alongside rising youngsters Podziemski, Jonathan Kuminga, Trayce Jackson-Davis and Moses Moody, and pair them with returns to health from Gary Payton II and Kevon Looney, and suddenly Kerr’s cup runneth over.

“Last year, Steph and Steve were talking about the lineups and just kind of running out of options on lineups that we can go to,” Green told reporters after Sunday’s win over Oklahoma City. “This year, it’s the total opposite.”

Kerr has already taken advantage of that surfeit of options. He’s gone at least 10 deep in every game thus far, trotting out seven starting lineups in 11 games, with no five-man unit logging more than 34 minutes. Golden State’s reserves have seized their opportunities and earned more; the Warriors are averaging a league-leading 58 points per game off the bench, which would be the highest figure of any team in the 28 seasons for which NBA.com publishes play-by-play data.

One benefit to that newfound depth? It’s allowing Kerr to curb Curry’s workload. Steph still leads the team in minutes per game, but he’s averaging just 29.1, which would be a career-low — and, presumably, a pretty good pitch count for someone who’ll turn 37 in March and whom Golden State hopes to be leaning on come April, May and June.

Another? It lets Kerr act like he’s still coaching Team USA.

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After last week’s early-season-statement win in Boston, Payton compared the Warriors’ expanded rotation to a hockey team running full line changes every few minutes; this, he said, gives them “a lot of fresh legs.” That shows up in consistently cranked-up defensive effort, picture-perfect rotations and the kind of expertly executed help that closes openings before an offense can exploit them.

Watch the Warriors play defense, and you’ll find yourself struck by the degree to which they often seem to be everywhere. They chase ball-handlers over the top of screens. They bump cutters. They haul ass back on the fast break, giving up a microscopic and league-best 0.87 points per play in transition, according to Synergy Sports. (The next-stingiest team in transition, the Orlando Magic, gives up 1.02; the size of the gap between Golden State and second place is the same as the gap between second and 25th.)

They apply a level of ball pressure that, frankly, seems like it’d be very annoying to deal with over the course of 100 or so possessions, because they’ve got the quick hands, feet and thinking to extend their defense, rotate behind it, and get away with it. The Warriors have trapped pick-and-roll ball-handlers 47 times in 11 games, according to Synergy, compared to 83 in 82 games last season; after dropping back in zone defense an average of 3.2 possessions per game last season, they’ve done it zero times this season.

Beat one Warrior off the dribble, and there’s another, maybe two, racing over to not only impede your progress, but rudely separate you from the ball. Work to pry open what you think is an open look, and watch as they slam that window shut; they rank fourth in the NBA in contested shots per game, third in field-goal attempts on which they have a defender within 2 feet of the shooter, and have blocked a league-high 10 3-point attempts. They concede nothing.

Some of that is a function of Golden State’s overwhelming length. There’s no Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren or Kristaps Porziņģis here, but in Green, Jackson-Davis, Looney, Anderson, Kuminga, Moody and Andrew Wiggins, Kerr has seven rotation players between 6-foot-6 and 6-foot-9 with 7-foot-plus wingspans. (Wiggins has gotten off to a very strong start. He ranks in the 99th percentile in the NBA in perimeter isolation defense, according to The BBall Index, despite taking on an All-NBA team of individual matchups. He’s also posting career-highs in offensive rebounding percentage and contested defensive rebounding percentage — critical for a Warriors team without a ton of height on the interior.)

Guards Payton and Melton both stand 6-foot-2, but have 6-foot-8 wingspans and the lateral quickness to be point-of-attack menaces. (Melton, who was limited to 38 games last season by back issues, will be on the shelf for a while after spraining his left ACL.) Hield, at 6-foot-4, has a 6-foot-9 wingspan, as well as a relentless drive to pursue the ball that Kerr, Stackhouse and Co. have weaponized.

Some of it, though, is a function of attitude — which, as Julius Campbell taught us, reflects leadership. And when you’re talking about the Warriors’ defense, that leadership comes from Green … who has been an absolute monster out of the gate:

Opponents are shooting just 40% when Green is the closest defender, according to NBA Advanced Stats. Out of 166 players to guard at least 100 field goal attempts, that’s the ninth-lowest mark; it’s also on pace to be the lowest defensive field goal percentage he’s allowed since 2015-16, the year he made his first All-Star and All-NBA teams, and finished seventh in MVP voting.

While the league’s preeminent giants lock down the paint primarily through the threat of their shot-blocking, Green controls the half-court by extinguishing sparks before they can catch fire. Nobody’s better at mucking up possessions with positioning, stunts, shifts and communication; opponents are taking just under 28.7% of their shots at the rim against the Warriors with Green on the court, which would be the second-lowest rate in the NBA. When they do venture inside, he might not get the block, but he still manages to make them regret it. They’re shooting only 62.1% on point-blank looks when he’s on the floor, a top-six clip.

“He’s been unreal,” Curry said of Green after Tuesday’s win over the Mavericks. “Truly motivated. He’s moving well. He’s locked in mentally. … He’s been all-world defensively.”

Honestly? He was last season, too: The Warriors defended at a top-three level, and had the point differential of a 56-win team, when Green was on the floor in 2023-24. The issue, though, was all the time he wasn’t on the floor; he cost himself more than 20 games through suspensions and ejections, and the Warriors sputtered to an early exit partly because it never fully recovered from him putting them behind the 8-ball.

Green has come into the season intent on re-establishing himself as not only a bellwether, but the belle of the ball when it comes to defensive game-changers in the NBA — one who, at just 6-foot-6, remains a giant in his own right, capable of casting a towering shadow over opposing offenses.

“I spent all summer watching everyone talk about Chet and Wemby, and what they’re doing defensively,” Green said after holding Zion Williamson to 3-for-12 shooting in a Warriors win. “Don’t forget about Dray.”

This start to the season has served as an emphatic reminder — not only of the difference Green makes, but of just how dangerous a fully operational version of the Warriors can really be.

Basketball-Reference.com publishes a metric called Simple Rating System (SRS), which takes into account a team’s average point differential and the strength of schedule it has faced. Through 11 games, the Warriors’ SRS is 11.04 — second-highest in the NBA, behind only a 10-2 Thunder team that got off to a historically elite defensive start. Heading into this season, only 11 teams have ever had an SRS above 10.0. Eight of them wound up winning the NBA championship: the 1971 Bucks, ’72 Lakers, ’92, ’96 and ’97 Bulls, 2015 and ’17 Warriors, and last year’s Celtics. (A ninth, the 2016 Warriors, lost in the Finals.)

Whether this early-season success will sustain remains to be seen. We’re an awful long way from the postseason proving ground; it’s possible that, by springtime, the Warriors look more like just another member of the West’s middle class. This start has shown, though, that it’s also possible they’re not. That, a decade after their first Larry O’Brien Trophy, Golden State’s formula — Steph throwing lightning bolts, Draymond breathing fire, everybody else passing and moving in concert, and a defense that chokes offenses out — still works. If it ain’t broke … well, don’t stop using it to break people.

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