By Svea Herbst-Bayliss
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Billionaire investor Daniel Loeb adjusted his portfolio to capture a potential boom in corporate activity after the Nov. 5 U.S. election where he expects the Republican Party will chalk up wins.
Loeb believes the Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, is more likely to win the White House and that his party’s policies could help boost financial markets.
“The likelihood of a Republican victory in the White House has increased, which would have a positive impact on certain sectors and the market overall,” Loeb wrote to investors in his hedge fund Third Point on Thursday. Reuters obtained a copy of the letter.
Third Point has made stock and option purchases and increased positions that “could benefit from such a scenario” while also shifting the “portfolio away from companies that will not,” the letter said. He did not elaborate on what trades the firm has been making.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll this week found that Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris held a marginal lead of three percentage points over Trump as the two stayed locked in a tight race.
Even if Trump loses, Loeb expects the Republican Party will establish a majority in the U.S. Senate which he expects can limit the “economic downside of a “Blue Sweep” by the Democratic party.
Many large investors have expressed concern about the Democrats’ economic and fiscal proposals and Loeb wrote that the party’s plans could result in “crushing taxes,” and “stifling regulations” that could hurt growth.
Wall Street has long held out for a rebound in mergers and acquisitions activity and Loeb wrote that fewer regulations and the elimination of the current administration’s “activist antitrust stance” will “unleash productivity and a wave of corporate activity.”
Since January, Loeb’s flagship fund has returned roughly 14% with the broader stock market S&P500 index gaining about 23.6%.
Turning to the broader economy, Loeb said that interest rates still need to come down, at a time there is no evidence of a looming recession and as inflation is slowing.
But he also thinks markets should remain underpinned by healthy consumer spending and active levels of individual investing.
(Reporting by Svea Herbst-Bayliss; Editing by Alistair Bell)