Brissett vs. Maye: Simulating the Patriots’ season with both QBs originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
Jerod Mayo and the New England Patriots already made their decision: Jacoby Brissett — not rookie first-rounder Drake Maye — will start at quarterback for the team’s Week 1 showdown vs. the Cincinnati Bengals.
Letting Maye learn behind the veteran to begin his NFL career may be the right move for his development. Still, we’re left wondering how a full season of the third-overall pick under center would look versus one with Brissett at the helm.
Our partners at Strat-O-Matic helped bring that vision to life. They ran two simulations of the 2024 Patriots season — one with Maye and one with Brissett — to determine how New England would fare with both signal-callers.
Check out the results below:
Jacoby Brissett at QB
Head coach Jerod Mayo named Brissett the team’s starting quarterback because he gives the Patriots “the best chance to win right now.” Strat-O-Matic’s simulation disagrees.
With Brissett under center, the 2024 Patriots compete for the league’s worst record at 4-13. Their only wins for the season come in Week 2 against the Seattle Seahawks, Week 9 at the Tennessee Titans, Week 15 at the Arizona Cardinals, and Week 16 at the Buffalo Bills.
Brissett’s final stat line isn’t terrible, but it isn’t nearly good enough to compete in the AFC East. He finishes the campaign with 346 completions on 530 pass attempts (65.3 percent) for 3,508 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.
Drake Maye at QB
The Patriots’ top draft pick is ready to start in the NFL, according to Strat-O-Matic’s simulation.
Maye leads New England to an 8-9 record. It still isn’t enough to clinch a postseason berth, but it’s enough to inspire hope that the organization has its QB of the future and is trending in the right direction.
With Maye leading the charge, the Pats earn wins over the Bengals (Week 1), Seahawks (Week 2), Miami Dolphins (Week 5), Chicago Bears (Week 11), Los Angeles Rams (Week 12), Indianapolis Colts (Week 14), Cardinals (Week 15), and Bills (Week 18). The 22-year-old ends his debut season completing 347 of 552 passes (62.9 percent) for 3,774 yards with 22 TDs and 13 INTs.
For the sake of comparison, Mac Jones was 352 for 521 (67.6 percent) for 3,801 yards, 22 TDs, and 13 INTs in his rookie season with the Patriots. He helped New England clinch a postseason berth with a 10-7 record but fell to the Bills in the Wild Card round.
Final takeaways
While Maye’s numbers aren’t much better than Brissett’s, it’s clear something clicked with the rookie in charge of the offense. A four-win advantage is nothing to scoff at.
Maye’s ability to step up in crunch time could be the difference. Five of his eight wins came by four points or fewer, including a dramatic 21-20 win at home vs. Miami.
Regardless of who’s under center, DeMario Douglas and Ja’Lynn Polk are the most productive Pats receivers. Here’s how the second- and first-year pass-catchers fared with Brissett and Maye in Strat-O-Matic’s simulation.
The Patriots also found decent success in the ground game under both QBs in Strat-O-Matic’s simulation. Stevenson tops 1,000 total yards with both Brissett and Maye, while Gibson comes impressively close (947 total yards with Brissett; 859 total yards with Maye).
Here’s how the rest of New England’s skill position players fared with both QBs in Strat-O-Matic’s simulation:
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There aren’t any glaring discrepancies in those numbers, either. The only major difference between Brissett and Maye in Strat-O-Matic’s simulation is the Patriots’ win total, but that’s the only number that matters in the end.
New England opens its 2024 campaign Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. in Cincinnati.