The final countdown to the Christmas holidays is upon us, and while it may not be looking or feeling much like it across southern Ontario, things are about to take a much more wintry spin.
Think snow, and the coldest temperatures of the year for some.
Will it be a white Christmas though? It will all boil down to a few factors this weekend.
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After a quick blast of snow, which could see 5-10 cm fall Wednesday, snow returns to the forecast to close out the week on Friday.
This is what could be the make or break for a white Christmas for some, especially outside of the snowbelts where it’s pretty well a guarantee thanks to the relentless early season squalls.
The best chance of snow will be through the early parts of Friday, with temperatures remaining below freezing. Most of the region should see between 2-5 cm fall, but locally, 5+ cm is possible due to the potential for lake enhancement near the west end of Lake Ontario.
By late Friday night, the frigid Arctic air will spread through, with temperatures around the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) dipping into the negative double-digit values. Across central Ontario, temperatures will cool to the minus teens.
Bundle up for a chilly, gusty Saturday
A cold morning on Saturday will also trend into a cold afternoon, with temperatures sitting in the -6°C to -9°C range throughout the GTA, and minus double digit highs north of the region.
Temperatures will feel much colder as wind gusts will peak between 20-40 km/h.
The sun will be shining, though with some passing clouds, except for areas along Lake Huron and southern Georgian Bay as some weak snow squalls will be ongoing.
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Even chillier conditions will move in for Saturday night, bringing the coldest air of the year to places like Toronto.
So far in 2024, -15.5°C has been the coldest temperature recorded back on January 17. This Saturday, Toronto could drop to -17°C. Barrie will see temperatures plunge into the low -20s, and Ottawa could see its first -20°C temperature reading of the year, as well.
Coldest day of the year coming Sunday
By Sunday, the winds ease, which will make the chill feel a bit more bearable, but it’ll still be the coldest day of the year.
Across the GTA, temperatures will remain below -10°C, which is actually a first since February 3, 2023! Some passing clouds will start the day, but the sun will be in abundance through the latter half.
Next week will feature quite a warming trend, however, and we are closely watching a relatively weak system and warm front, which is expected to impact the region during Christmas Eve and possibly into Christmas Day.
This will not be a major storm, but the timing relative to Christmas makes this a more interesting story. This could bring us a coating (a few centimetres) of wet snow, but also a significant risk for a changeover to rain as temperatures rise above freezing, especially for more southern areas.
Be sure to check back for the latest weather updates across Ontario