How are things looking in the days and weeks ahead for B.C.’s ski resorts?
Well, If you tried to count the number of weather systems impacting B.C. in the next couple of weeks, you’d probably lose count.
Models continue to flaunt a normal- to below-normal temperature pattern across the province heading into the heart of November––a dream scenario for ski resorts.
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That is most welcome news after the dismal start to the 2023-24 season. Last year, conditions were influenced by El Niño and mountainous areas struggled to build new snowpack and keep what they had as a base. Things were much different just a year earlier, when resorts like SilverStar were able to open earlier than expected in 2022.
Meanwhile, lower elevations along the South Coast will have numerous impacts from three low-pressure systems to deal with this week, including heavy rainfall and potent wind gusts. Expect disruptions by Wednesday.
Days ahead: Three low-pressure systems affect lower elevations
The first system was a deep Gulf of Alaska low that shoved a sprawling front across B.C. on Sunday, which brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the region.
Our second system will be marked by onshore flow continuing into Monday with shower activity.
The third act of this atmospheric ballet will feature a stronger low developing Tuesday evening in the eastern Pacific. This system will drift toward the northern tip of Vancouver Island by Wednesday. Wind warnings will likely be issued with this low-pressure system.
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Wind gusts of 70-90 km/h are possible across exposed coastal sections around the South Coast, including Greater Victoria and the Gulf Islands. Winds subside early Wednesday, but storm cleanup will likely continue.
The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur on Wednesday when 24-hour rain totals approach 100 mm on western Vancouver Island and 50-75 mm across the Sea to Sky and North Vancouver.
As a result of the gusty winds and heavy rain, people can expect power outages, ferry delays and localized flooding.
There is high confidence for an unsettled pattern, but lower confidence on which coastal locations will see damaging winds.
Higher elevations get November gift
What brings stormy and occasionally disruptive conditions to the lower elevations is a dream for skiers. With at least six ski resorts scheduled to open this month, just how much snow will they see?
The first round through Tuesday brings up to 30-40 cm of snowfall across the highest mountains across coastal B.C. The Rockies and Columbia ranges are blessed with locally more than 20 cm of snowfall.
Wednesday features a prolific snowfall across Vancouver Island and Coast Mountains where more than 50 cm could accumulate, by far the biggest alpine snowstorm of the season thus far.
We’ve seen about 31 cm of snow at Whistler Mountain Resort over the past week. Revelstoke has seen 22 cm of snowfall the past 24 hours with a snowbase of 82 cm at the moment. Many of the major ski resorts throughout the province already have a few dozen centimetres of base snowpack even before this active pattern begins in earnest.
A colder pattern will develop across this region during mid-November, allowing for an increasing alpine snowpack during the middle and late part of the month.
Nov. 22 is the tentative opening date for Whistler, with Big White and Revelstoke planning to open about a week later on Nov. 28 and Nov. 30, respectively. Kicking Horse is scheduled to open on Dec. 6.