Alberta is no stranger to getting its fair share of winter weather in the autumn season. However, this year, a lack of fall snow has led to winter weather falling behind across the province, including Calgary.
While talking about winter weather in the fall may sound like a misnomer, plenty of record-breaking snow events have happened in Calgary over the fall months.
A new record was set back in 2019 for the largest September snowfall when 24.6 cm of snow blanketed the city on Sept. 29. Communities outside of Calgary, such as Lethbridge, recorded even higher snow totals—up to 50 cm!
Calgary’s October snow record was set only a year prior, in 2018, when the month kicked off with a whopping 32.8 cm of snow.
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Outside of these exceptional events, Calgary receives an average of 32.5 cm of snow over the fall months—September, October, and November.
So far this season, however, the city has only reported a measly 3.1 cm of snow, putting it in second place for the city’s least snowiest fall—for now, at least.
November in Calgary typically sees 18.8 cm of snow, and with only a couple weeks left in the month, will the winter weather be able to catch up?
Unfortunately, the answer is likely no.
Temperatures in the city so far this fall have been sitting about 4°C above normal, although they are expected to drop next week with the potential for a system to develop. This will be the city’s best chance for snow, as temperatures will once again rise to close out the month.
A ridge of high pressure will also move over the province for the last week of November, bringing abundant sunshine and pleasant temperatures—which also means no snow.
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With this pattern of warm temperatures and sunshine shaping up, it’s likely Calgary will see this season remain in the top five least snowiest falls on record.
Dec. 1 marks the start of meteorological winter, when we expect to see winter weather across the country start to dominate the forecasts.
This upcoming winter was forecast to be a La Niña winter, which would bring below-seasonal temperatures to Western Canada and a more active storm track to the West Coast and Eastern Canada. However, sudden shifts in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle have resulted in a much weaker La Niña event to develop than previously expected, which will greatly reduce the impacts we would expect to see on Canada’s winter weather.
It is possible the La Niña could regain its strength later in the season, but it will likely be too late for November and Calgary’s autumn snow.