LOS ANGELES — The signs were there in Philadelphia. On the surface, Kodai Senga’s two innings of one-run ball in Game 1 of the National League Division Series seemed like a triumphant return. He had settled in after allowing a lead-off homer to Kyle Schwarber, right?
Not really, according to people whose eyes are sharper than mine or yours.
“I don’t know what they’re seeing in Senga,” one veteran scout said in the wake of Senga’s return to the mound in Philly. “After the Schwarber homer, it was nibble, nibble, nibble. It seemed like he was afraid to throw it for a strike.”
And how was his fastball command?
“Iffy,” the scout said.
And the signature “ghost” forkball?
“Passable,” the scout said, shrugging.
A different scout said before Sunday’s NLCS Game 1 that the Mets should not start Senga, based on what he had seen in the previous outing. After Senga allowed three runs in 1.1 innings, throwing just 10 of 30 pitches for strikes, the scout said, “He’s afraid. No challenge to anything. Cutters and splits, away from attack.”
Senga bounced the ghost fork, threw the cutter everywhere but where he intended, and saw his fastball velocity drop.
It’s not as if, in an ideal world, the Mets would have chosen Senga for the series opener. Pitching plans this time of year require input from the training staff, coaches, and of course the players themselves.
In this instance — and this is a significant point — the Mets’ decision-makers were told that Sean Manaea, who would have been pitching on normal rest, and Luis Severino, who would have had two extra days of rest, should be pushed further back. That does not indicate a health issue for those pitchers. It simply means that Manaea and Severino were deemed more likely to be effective in Games 2 and 3 than in Game 1.
What’s done is done, but it doesn’t mean that the Mets should try it again.
Asked if Senga would definitely start in a Game 5 (if necessary), as scheduled, manager Carlos Mendoza said, “We’ve got to wait and see how he responds. I think it’s going to come down to how he’s going to bounce back.”
Senga, who missed nearly all of the season with arm and calf injuries, said he was healthy, and that the issues were mechanical.
The Mets might want to get him to a doctor ASAP in order to make sure that is the case. As recently as late September, Senga reported triceps tightness in a minor league rehab outing. If that issue resurfaces, the Mets could drop him from the roster and make Adam Ottavino the injury replacement. After Game 1, the bullpen will be without David Peterson and Jose Butto for Game 2 and could use Ottavino as soon as Monday.
Removing Senga due to injury from the NLCS would, by MLB rule, render him ineligible for the World Series. It would not be an easy decision.
On the other hand, the team is thinking hard about whether they can let him pitch again, anyway.