Winter arrived in Canada this year full of vim and vigour—constantly on the move and lacking commitment to any one region.
What’s in store for the rest of the season? Things are going to warm up in a hurry as we approach the holidays. But have no fear if you’re one of the cold-weather lovers among us. The new year is likely to start on a much colder note for much of the country.
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Winter’s arrived in fits and starts
Cold and snowy weather showed up first across Western Canada during late November, spreading east through the first half of December.
This migration brought epic lake-effect snows to the snowbelts, and it promises a much more widespread white Christmas than we saw last year.
However, winter is about to take a seat as we round out 2024.
Much milder air will spread across the country from west to east during the final days leading up to Christmas. As a result, the final week of December will feel more like November across most of Canada. Temperatures are set to come in 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal for the final week of 2024.
The cold is just getting started
Despite the temporary warmup, don’t worry: winter is far from over.
During the first week of January, we expect that a major pattern will unfold and winter will storm the field once again. It will take several days for the pattern to get established, but once it does, we expect that it’ll be more persistent than what we saw during December.
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Here’s the pattern we expect to set up by Jan. 5—a significant trough building over the eastern half of Canada and the U.S.
This pattern will feature colder-than-normal temperatures from the central Prairies to the Maritimes. Extremes beget extremes, and above-seasonal temperatures are expected across B.C. and the Yukon during the same timeframe.
We expect his new pattern should continue through Jan. 20 and possibly beyond. During late January, we expect that the focus of the below-seasonal air will start to shift west into Western Canada.
The exact timing for this pattern shift is still uncertain, but we expect colder-than-normal temperatures to dominate across Western Canada during late January and early February. On the flip side, widespread above-seasonal temperatures are likely across Eastern Canada.
Warmer-than-normal air spreading into Eastern Canada is by no means an end to the winter season for this half of the country. Colder weather will still attempt to spread east at times—but with a changeable pattern, the periods of milder weather should outweigh the periods of colder weather.
Keep in mind, though, that high-impact and messy winter storms can still occur when temperatures are above-seasonal during the heart of the winter months.