• Redblacks QB Dru Brown is starting to heat up: Since Week 6, Brown’s 80.9 passing grade ranks third in that span, and his six big-time throws are tied for second-most.
• Hamilton’s DI Casey Sayles has been unstoppable since 2022: He has the highest pass rush grade over that span as well as the second-highest run defense grade. His pass-rush grade ranked second in 2022, fifth in 2023 and currently ranks second this year at 88.4
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Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS VS. OTTAWA REDBLACKS
After starting the year 4-0, the Roughriders have fallen back down to Earth a bit with a 1-3 record over their last four games. They got fantastic play from QB Shea Patterson last week, where he finished with the highest offensive grade of the week at 85.2. Nonetheless, their defense can’t allow 42 points again, especially against an Ottawa team that’s a surprising 5-2. The Redblacks defense is one of the best in the league, allowing just 23.4 points and 333.1 yards per game — both marks rank third in the CFL. The Redblacks also have one of the shiftiest runningbacks out there in Ryquell Armstead, whose 24 broken tackles rank second in the league. If Ottawa’s defense can keep Saskatchewan off the field, it’ll likely use a heavy dose of Armstead to control the clock.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: WR JUSTIN HARDY, OTTAWA VS. HB ROLAN MILLIGAN, SASKATCHEWAN
If there’s any matchup to watch this week, it’s this one. Hardy is currently CFL’s No. 2 graded WR with a 76.6 grade. He’s averaging 2.23 yards per route run, which ranks fifth in the league, and has 18 explosive receptions (second-most). He’s been one of the league’s top receivers, and he’ll be going up against one of the best defensive backs. Milligan has an 84.2 coverage grade, which ranks second, behind only Winnipeg’s Tyrell Ford. Milligan will give up yards (1.00 yards allowed per coverage snap), but he more than makes up for it with his plays on the ball. The halfback has five interceptions and 11 forced incompletions, four of which were dropped interceptions. Milligan may not shut down Hardy completely, but his abilities should make any throw coming Hardy’s way something to watch.
PLAYER TO WATCH: QB DRU BROWN, OTTAWA
Ottawa is second in the East, already surpassing its 2023 win total. Brown’s 72.0 passing grade ranks second-last in the CFL, but that’s mostly a product of a struggling start. Since Week 6, Brown’s 80.9 passing grade ranks third in that span, and his six big-time throws are tied for second-most. He does have five turnover-worthy plays in that span, which he’ll need to tidy up. However, a strong performance this week could help Ottawa keep this season going strong. If he can take that next step towards being a top QB, Ottawa could be incredibly dangerous.
CALGARY STAMPEDERS VS. TORONTO ARGONAUTS
If there’s one positive for Toronto, it’s that it doesn’t have to wait long to get revenge after blowing a 23-6 fourth-quarter lead against these same Stampeders last weekend. The Argos looked to be in control until Calgary QB Jake Maier came alive in the fourth quarter. He recorded a 74.5 passing grade and a 100% adjusted completion percentage in the fourth quarter after posting a 41.4 passing grade and a 69.0% adjusted rate in the first three quarters. Toronto will need to find a way to turn its pass-rush wins into pressure this week. Last week, the Argos ranked second with a 14.9% team pass-rush win rate but a 5.2% pressure rate. If they can’t get more pressure on Calgary and Maier, they may struggle again in this game.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: LT ISIAH CAGE, TORONTO VS. ED CLARENCE HICKS, CALGARY
Toronto’s offensive line has been its strength, which is how it’s survived without QB Chad Kelly behind center. Nonetheless, Calgary found a way last week, recording 20 total pressures (second most in the CFL). The Argos were led by Hicks, who finished with a sack and four hurries on just 21 pass-rush snaps. Hicks has been good all year long and his 79.3 pass-rush grade ranks fifth in the league. Cage has struggled at times handling the pass rush, allowing 12 total pressures while losing 10.3% of his pass-blocking reps, including surrendering a sack and a hurry to Hicks last week on 10 pass-blocking matchups. If Cage struggles again, it could be a repeat game for Hicks and this Calgary pass rush.
PLAYER TO WATCH: WR REGGIE BEGELTON, CALGARY
Begelton was an All-Star a year ago, and so far this season, he has struggled to follow that up. Despite averaging a similar average depth of target (10.7 yards versus 10.8 yards last year), Begelton is averaging just 1.30 yards per route run compared to 2.15 a year ago. Begelton just hasn’t been getting open as frequently as last year. Last week, he caught eight passes for 96 yards, both of which were season-highs this year. Last year, he had six games with as many catches or yards. Begelton still has the talent that earned him that All-Star spot last year, and Calgary may need him to come through in a big way this week if they want to win again.
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS VS. MONTREAL ALOUETTES
We have our second immediate rematch of the week. Hamilton looks to figure out this Montreal team that handily beat it 33-16 last week. QB Bo Levi Mitchell struggled against this Montreal defense, making just one big-time throw versus three turnover-worthy plays while finishing with a 64.0 passing grade. Montreal has one of the CFL’s best defenses — led by players like CB Kabion Ento (81.4 overall grade) and DI Mustafa Johnson (77.1). Their not-so-secret weapon is RB Walter Fletcher out of the backfield in the passing game. His 90.6 receiving grade is the highest among running backs, and his 16 missed tackles forced also leads at the position. Hamilton struggled to slow him last week, so will it have an answer this week?
MATCHUP TO WATCH: RB JAMES BUTLER, HAMILTON VS. LB TYRICE BEVERETTE, MONTREAL
In the past, Hamilton has relied heavily on Butler to carry the load, but that has not been the case so far this year. Butler’s 79.2 rushing grade ranks in the middle of the pack among RBs, as does his 3.2 yards after contact per carry. He’s one of the best receiving backs though, as he has recorded an 84.5 receiving grade that ranks second. If anyone can contain him for an entire game though, it’s Beverette. The linebacker currently ranks sixth in the league with a 79.2 run-defense grade and also has a 70.9 coverage grade. Beverette is one of the most athletic, all-around linebackers in the CFL and is capable of taking Butler on every snap.
PLAYER TO WATCH: DI CASEY SAYLES, HAMILTON
Over the past three seasons, no defensive lineman has been as consistently good as Sayles. He has the highest pass-rush grade over that span as well as the second-highest run-defense grade. His pass rush grade ranked second in 2022, fifth in 2023 and currently ranks second this year at 88.4. Sayles has 32 total pressures, the most among interior defenders, and a 14.0% pass rush win rate that ranks fifth. Sayles also ranks second with three batted passes. Sayles is capable of taking over any game, and his consistency across multiple seasons shows that he isn’t going to slow down any time soon.
BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS VS. EDMONTON ELKS
The vibes going into this game couldn’t be more opposite for both teams. The Elks just won their first game of the season behind an offensive explosion led by new starting QB Tre Ford (72.3 overall grade). Edmonton’s defense has struggled at times this year and will need to be better if it wants to keep winning. Meanwhile, the Lions just had their worst loss of the season, a 25-0 defeat that saw them lose leading Most Outstanding Player candidate QB Vernon Adams Jr. to injury. The Lions are going to need big performances from their stars to pick up the slack if they want to avoid another loss.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: RG SUKH CHUNGH, BRITISH COLUMBIA VS. DI SHAWN OAKMAN, EDMONTON
With Edmonton’s pass rush struggling early in the season, the Elks brought in free agent Oakman to help bolster that front seven. It’s been a big success, as Oakman currently leads the CFL with a 17.5% pass-rush win rate. Oakman only has a 6.7% pressure percentage, so he’s not necessarily turning those wins into consistent pressure. Nevertheless, that may change against Chungh. The Lions’ guard has allowed 15 total pressures and has lost over 12.0% of his pass block snaps. The entire Lions offensive line has struggled throughout the season, and it has been their downfall in all of their losses. If Oakman and the Elks defensive line can get pressure, it could result in yet another Lions loss.
PLAYER TO WATCH: WR JUSTIN MCINNIS, BRITISH COLUMBIA
With Adams out for an indefinite amount of time, it falls to this elite receiving corps to help out likely starting QB Jake Dolegala. McInnis has been the best of the group, with a league-leading 83.8 receiving grade. More importantly, McInnis has caught 15-of-28 contested targets on the season. Only one other receiver has more than 10 contested catches this year. His 2.60 yards per route run ranks first as well. McInnis is a ‘throw it up and let him come down with it’ kind of receiver, which may be exactly what Dolegala needs to settle in as the new starting quarterback for the Lions until Adams can return.