The Houston Texans on Saturday afternoon of wild-card weekend is one of the weirdest traditions in sports.
Nine times the Texans have qualified for the playoffs in their history, and all nine times they’ve played the 4:30 p.m. Eastern slot on the first weekend of the playoffs. They’ll be the playoff opener again this season, as they take on the Los Angeles Chargers.
The matchup
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at No. 4 Houston Texans (10-7)
NRG Stadium
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
How to watch Chargers at Texans
The game will be broadcast by CBS and can also be streamed on Paramount+.
Betting odds
The Chargers are a 3-point favorite over the Texans at BetMGM. Los Angeles is the only road team that is favored on wild-card weekend. The total for the game is 42.5 points. That’s the lowest total of the six games in this round.
X factor
Joe Alt was a solid but debatable pick by the Chargers at No. 5 overall. Alt was a good tackle, but many felt the Chargers needed a receiver like Malik Nabers. Alt has turned out to be the right pick for the Chargers. He has been fantastic at right tackle, with he and left tackle Rashawn Slater providing the foundation of a good offense. This week Alt has a tough challenge against Texans pass rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who combined for 23 sacks this season. Slater has been one of the NFL’s best tackles all season. If Alt has a great game Saturday, the strength of the Texans’ defense will be neutralized.
How the Chargers can win
As the season went on, the Chargers opened up the passing game with great results. Over the last five games, Justin Herbert had a 108.7 passer rating with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. He attempted 33.6 passes per game, after passing just 28 times per game in Los Angeles’ first 12 games. A big part of the passing game has been rookie Ladd McConkey, who had 1,149 yards and was hot late in the season. Houston has a good pass defense, and the Chargers’ ability to create explosive plays could be the difference in which team moves on.
How the Texans can win
The Texans started the season 6-2 and Joe Mixon was a big reason. Mixon had 100 yards in five of his first six games this season. He scored a rushing touchdown in seven of his first eight games. Late in the season, when Houston started to struggle, Mixon wasn’t much of a factor. Over his last four games this season, Mixon had just 129 yards combined without any rushing touchdowns. C.J. Stroud isn’t playing well, the passing offense doesn’t have injured Stefon Diggs or Tank Dell, and the Chargers defense was 27th in the NFL in yards per rush allowed. If Mixon can produce like he did early this season, the Texans offense could reemerge.
Prediction
There’s a reason the Chargers are favored, even on the road. They’ve won eight of their last 11, and all three losses came to division winners (Ravens, Chiefs, Buccaneers). Jim Harbaugh has done a marvelous job in his first season back in the NFL. Houston came into the season as a popular Super Bowl darkhorse pick but it hasn’t played out that way. The Texans have struggled a bit, and were fortunate to play in a weak AFC South. They’re just 4-5 since Oct. 27. Their only win against a playoff team all season was Week 5 over the Bills. The Chargers have been the better team this season, they’ve been playing better lately, and that will continue in the playoff opener. Chargers 24, Texans 20