By Ethan Wang and Joe Cash
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s exports likely grew at the slowest pace in four months in August, as cooling global demand and mounting trade barriers threaten to dim a bright spot in the world’s second-largest economy.
Trade data on Tuesday is expected to show outbound shipments grew 6.5% year-on-year by value, according to the median forecast of 34 economists in a Reuters poll, down from a 7.0% pace recorded in July.
Inbound shipments likely increased by 2% last month, marking a steep drop from the 7.2% growth recorded in July that was bumped up by a low base from the previous year and a rush to stockpile chips ahead of expected U.S. tech curbs.
South Korea, a leading index for China’s tech imports, saw exports to China rise at a slower pace in August, after it soared to a 21-month high in July.
The likely downbeat August data adds to a string of recent economic indicators suggesting China is struggling to regain momentum after a rocky start to the second half of the year.
Manufacturing activity shrank for the sixth consecutive month in August, with factory gate prices falling to their worst in 14 months.
Moreover, the expected deceleration in imports highlights weak domestic demand, as the economy is weighed down by a prolonged housing market slump and rising job insecurities.
Analysts believe the economy could regain some ground in the rest of the year, as fiscal spending is set to ramp up and exports retain some resilience.
However, significant risks remain, with escalating trade tensions and looming tariff hikes casting a shadow over growth prospects.
Canada last month announced a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles, joining the U.S. and European Union in tightening trade measures against China.
In Asia, India’s steel ministry is pushing to raise tariffs on steel imports from countries including China, while Malaysia has launched an anti-dumping probe into Chinese and Indonesian plastic products.
“The peak of Chinese export momentum is likely over,” Oxford Economics said in a recent note, warning that supportive price factors could fade as tariffs take effect.
China’s August trade surplus is forecast at $82.05 billion, according to the poll, down slightly from $84.65 billion in July.
(Reporting by Ethan Wang and Joe Cash; Polling by Rahul Trivedi and Anant Chandak in Bengaluru and Jing Wang in Shanghai; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)