CNN’s senior political data reporter Harry Enten flagged a “problem” for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign on Friday as he pointed to polling data that shows 28% of Americans who responded that the U.S. is on the “right track.”
Enten told CNN’s John Berman that the “right track” figure, on average, is at 25% when the incumbent party in the White House loses the presidential election.
“That looks a heck of a lot like that 28%,” Enten said.
He added that the same figure, on average, is at 42% in years when the incumbent party wins the presidential election.
“This to me is a bad sign for Kamala Harris’ campaign,” Enten said.
“The bottom line is it looks a lot more like a loser than it does like a winner when it comes to the country being on the right track.”
Enten later told Berman that “far more than 28%” thought the country was on the track when the incumbent party won that year’s election.
President Bill Clinton won the 1996 election when the figure was at 39%, for instance, while Ronald Reagan won his re-election bid when the figure was at 47% in 1984.
“So, there is no historical precedent for the White House party winning another term in the White House when the country, when just 28 percent of the country, thinks that we’re on the right track,” Enten said.
“John, simply put, it would be historically unprecedented.”
You can watch more of Enten’s analysis below:
H/T: RealClearPolitics