There are just two more weeks until the first College Football Playoff rankings.
With this season’s playoff expanding to 12 teams, we are laying out the projected playoff field each week ahead of the inaugural 2024 rankings release on Nov. 5.
Without CFP rankings as our guide, we mostly rely on the AP Top 25 as our barometer to project the field. The CFP rankings and AP poll typically have many more similarities than differences at the end of the season. Here’s what the provisional playoff field looks like after the third Saturday in October.
First-round byes
1. Oregon (7-0, projected Big Ten champion)
The Ducks are atop the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2012 after Texas’ loss and their win over Purdue in Week 8. The path to an undefeated regular season also looks very achievable. No. 20 Illinois visits Eugene on Saturday and the Illini are the only ranked team remaining on Oregon’s schedule now that Michigan is 4-3. The Ducks’ visit to Ann Arbor on Nov. 2 looks a lot less tough now that it’s become clear that Michigan is unable to figure out its passing woes.
2. Georgia (6-1, projected SEC champion)
Were you one of the doubters that Kirby Smart told his team about in the days leading up to the Bulldogs’ big win over Texas? Doubting Georgia under Smart is always a bad move, though there’s a stark difference between doubting the Bulldogs and thinking that Texas could win at home as a 3.5-point favorite. Georgia’s defensive front was monstrous against the Longhorns, but the offense simply has to be better. Carson Beck has eight interceptions across four SEC games.
3. Miami (7-0, projected ACC champion)
The high-wire Hurricanes did it again against Louisville. Miami got a pivotal two-score lead in the fourth quarter and benefitted from Cam Ward’s arm barely moving forward on what could have been a key fumble in the 52-45 win. The good news is that Ward is the Heisman frontrunner among quarterbacks and has become the clear best QB in college football right now. The bad news is that Miami has won all three of its ACC games by one score and has given up 129 points in those games.
4. Iowa State (7-0, projected Big 12 champion)
If we’re going to point out Miami’s propensity for close games, we also need to note that Iowa State made it way too tough on itself in a 38-35 home win over UCF. The Knights rushed for 354 yards as RJ Harvey broke off an 80-yard TD run on the way to 196 yards on the ground and QB Jacurri Brown had a 67-yard rush as he ran 13 times for 154 yards. Iowa State needed to score the last 11 points of the game to get the win as Rocco Becht ran it in for the winning TD with 30 seconds to go.
First-round games
No. 12 Boise State (projected MWC champion) at No. 5 Penn State (at-large)
It’s a shame that the biggest non-power conference game of the week is at 10:30 p.m. ET Friday night. The Broncos visit UNLV in a matchup that could be a Mountain West title game preview. Can the Rebels be the first team to slow down RB Ashton Jeanty? The Nittany Lions visit Wisconsin on Saturday in a game that’s gotten tougher than it looked just a few weeks ago. Granted, the opponents have been Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern, but Wisconsin is on a three-game win streak and has won those games by a combined 117-16.
No. 11 BYU (at-large) at No. 6 Ohio State (at-large)
The Cougars were the cardiac cats in Week 8 as Jake Retzlaff hit Darius Lassiter for a 35-yard TD pass with 10 seconds left to give BYU a 38-35 win over Oklahoma State. Now BYU visits the same UCF team that just gave Iowa State fits. Ohio State hosts Nebraska on Saturday ahead of the biggest game in Week 10 when the Buckeyes visit Penn State. If Ohio State can do to the Cornhuskers what Indiana did in Week 8, it’ll go a long way toward building the fan base’s confidence ahead of the trip to State College.
No. 7 Texas (at-large) at No. 10 Clemson (at-large)
Yes, Quinn Ewers is still Texas’ starting quarterback. Steve Sarkisian stated that fact after the Longhorns’ loss to Georgia and if that wasn’t clear enough, the fact that Ewers played the entire second half should tell you that his job isn’t in jeopardy. Sarkisian’s decision to go to Arch Manning in the first half was eyebrow-raising, but Manning’s ineffectiveness against Georgia’s ferociousness made it easy to go back to Ewers. Clemson, meanwhile, continues to pile up the points. The Tigers beat Virginia 48-31 in Week 8 ahead of a bye on Saturday. The Tigers are the seventh-highest scoring team in the country at 42 points per game despite scoring just three against Georgia in Week 1.
No. 8 Tennessee (at-large) at No. 9 LSU (at-large)
This would be an exceptionally fun inter-conference matchup if it took place. Tennessee’s offense got on track in the second half of its win over Alabama, while LSU didn’t have any of the issues that the Vols did in Fayetteville. Tennessee is off on Saturday and can enjoy the win over the Crimson Tide for another week while LSU visits Texas A&M in the biggest game of the weekend. The Tigers and Aggies are the only SEC teams without a conference loss.