The first set of College Football Playoff rankings are just a week away.
With this season’s playoff expanding to 12 teams, we are laying out the projected playoff field each week ahead of the inaugural 2024 rankings release on Nov. 5.
Without CFP rankings as our guide, we mostly rely on the AP Top 25 as our barometer to project the field. The CFP rankings and AP poll typically have many more similarities than differences at the end of the season. Here’s what the provisional playoff field looks like as the calendar gets ready to turn to November.
1. Oregon (8-0, projected Big Ten champion)
The Ducks are rolling. Oregon thrashed Illinois 38-9 in Week 9 to remain undefeated and no longer has any ranked opponents on its schedule. A visit to Michigan on Saturday is probably the toughest game remaining, but don’t sleep on a trip to Wisconsin on Nov. 16. Oregon should be favored in that contest and has one of the easiest paths to 12-0 of all the remaining unbeaten teams.
2. Georgia (6-1, projected SEC champion)
The Bulldogs aren’t in first place in the SEC but we’re confident in them at the moment. There’s a pathway for Georgia to get to the SEC title game at 6-2 in the conference — the SEC’s tiebreakers could get really, really complicated — and the Bulldogs shouldn’t have much of an issue with Florida in the teams’ annual rivalry game on Saturday.
3. Miami (8-0, projected ACC champion)
Could Miami sneak up to a top-two seed? It’s possible. The Hurricanes’ schedule is easier than Oregon’s. Miami has Duke on Saturday along with Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Syracuse the rest of the way. That trip to the Orange could be tricky, but if Miami goes 12-0 or even 11-1 and beats Clemson in the ACC title game, the Hurricanes could be higher than No. 3.
4. BYU (8-0, projected Big 12 champion)
The Cougars were underdogs at UCF in Week 9 and ended up winning 37-24 in a game that was not nearly as close as the score indicated. The Cougars held onto the ball for over 40 minutes and rushed for 255 yards as LJ Martin had 15 carries for 101 yards. BYU is off in Week 10 before visiting Utah in a game that we always thought would include a Big 12 contender. There’s just a lot of us that figured it’d be Utah.
No. 12 Boise State (6-1, projected MWC champion) at No. 5 Penn State (at-large)
UNLV did its best to keep Ashton Jeanty in check in Week 9. Jeanty had his “worst” game of the season with 33 carries for 128 yards and his fourth-quarter TD put Boise State up for good in the Broncos’ 29-23 win. Penn State hosts Ohio State in the marquee game of the week on Saturday and it’s currently unclear if QB Drew Allar will be able to play. He left the Nittany Lions’ win over Wisconsin with a knee injury late in the first half.
No. 11 Clemson (6-1, at-large) at No. 6 Ohio State (6-1, at-large)
The Tigers host Louisville on Saturday and have to be licking their chops at the Louisville defense. The Cardinals have given up at least 31 points in each of their three losses over their past four games. Clemson, meanwhile, has scored at least 48 points in all but one of the past six games as Cade Klubnik — no joke — has vaulted himself into the Heisman discussion.
No. 10 Texas A&M (7-1, at-large) at No. 7 Texas (7-1, at-large)
Yes, it’s theoretically possible that after not playing each other since Texas A&M left the Big 12 that the Longhorns and Aggies could play each other three straight times. They end the season against each other, could play each other in the SEC title game and then could also play each other in the playoff.
The odds of that happening are very, very low. But don’t rule out the possibility of back-to-back games. There’s a scenario where Texas A&M wins at South Carolina and Auburn to clinch a spot in the SEC title game before the teams meet in the regular-season finale.
No. 9 Notre Dame (7-1, at-large) at No. 8 Tennessee (6-1, at-large)
The Irish and Volunteers haven’t played each other in nearly 20 years. The last game came in 2005 in South Bend when Notre Dame won 41-21. Remember, Notre Dame cannot be a top-four seed because it’s not a part of a conference. So the best the Irish can do is hope for a first-round home playoff game. And given Notre Dame’s schedule and the guarantee that either Penn State or Ohio State will lose in Week 10, there’s a decent chance Notre Dame will host a playoff game.