SMU or Alabama?
That’s the College Football Playoff committee’s big dilemma heading into the final set of rankings on Sunday. The Mustangs battled back against Clemson to tie the game with less than 30 seconds to go before losing 34-31 to the Tigers on a 56-yard field goal with no time left.
The loss drops SMU to 11-2 and the Mustangs will assuredly fall from No. 8 in the rankings. But will they fall out of the playoff?
Alabama jumped Miami for the final spot in the provisional playoff field on Tuesday despite having a 9-3 record to Miami’s 10-2 record. The Hurricanes have lost two of their last three games and ended the regular season with a loss at Syracuse.
It’s easy to see how Alabama could jump a two-loss SMU from the same conference given what happened less than a week ago. But we’re not sure the committee wants to open that can of worms. Committee chair Warde Manuel left the possibility of SMU dropping below Alabama open on Tuesday night, but also made it clear that was far from a guarantee.
“If they drop out if they lose, I’m not sure,” Manuel said. “What we’ll do is evaluate them in the performance, again, watching the game, having high regard for those teams who are playing. There are 18 teams that are playing this weekend and we will be watching all of them and evaluating the results of those games, and we’ll see how they move, if they move at all. As I referenced on the interview on ESPN, two years ago, TCU lost and stayed at No. 3 in that particular year, so those things can happen. People can lose and maybe stay where they are. They can move as we have done in other years and go down big or they can go down just a little. It just depends on the outcome of the game.”
We don’t think Clemson’s win was convincing enough to knock SMU totally out of the playoff. Here’s our final prediction for what the playoff field will look like when it’s announced Sunday at noon ET on ESPN.
First-round byes
1. Oregon (13-0, Big Ten champion)
2. Georgia (11-2, SEC champion)
3. Boise State (12-1, Mountain West champion)
4. Arizona State (11-2, Big 12 champion)
These four teams seem pretty straightforward. Boise State started the weekend five spots ahead of Arizona State and beat UNLV by 14 in the MWC title game. Arizona State dominated Iowa State in the Big 12 title game and was two spots ahead of Clemson in Tuesday’s rankings. Clemson didn’t do enough to get a first-round bye and Boise State should stay ahead of Arizona State.
First-round matchups
No. 12 SMU (11-2, at-large) at No. 5 Texas (11-2, at-large)
No. 11 Clemson (10-3, ACC champion) at No. 6 Penn State (11-2, at-large)
No. 10 Indiana (11-1, at-large) at No. 7 Notre Dame (11-1, at-large)
No. 9 Tennessee (10-2, at-large) at No. 8 Ohio State (10-2, at-large)
Here’s where things get really, really interesting. We have SMU with the final spot in the playoff field over Alabama and the Mustangs a spot below Clemson because of the head-to-head loss on Saturday night. It’d be odd for the committee to have both Clemson and SMU in the field and have the Mustangs ahead of the Tigers.
However, we’re not sure if head-to-head results will apply elsewhere among the first-round games. Texas and Penn State are locks to host first-round games after their conference title game losses on Saturday. And we think the committee will keep them ahead of Notre Dame because both of those defeats came by one score. Texas was at No. 2 in Tuesday’s rankings ahead of No. 3 Penn State and No. 4 Notre Dame.
With the top four conference champions getting byes, that would knock those three teams down to Nos. 5-7 in the playoff and leave Ohio State at No. 8. Yes, the Buckeyes beat Penn State in the regular season. But can the committee drop Penn State below Ohio State without doing the same thing with Texas?
Putting Notre Dame at No. 7 behind Texas and Penn State also allows the committee to avoid a rematch or a game between teams in the same conference in a first-round game. Indiana looks locked in at No. 10 and would be able to play the Fighting Irish instead of Penn State or going to Ohio State again.