The College Football Playoff cake is getting close to baked, which means much of the angst and anger of the past few weeks over hypothetical and projected scenarios have proved a waste of time.
Remember when Tennessee was controversially “out”? The Volunteers smartly took care of business and are not only comfortably in the field but may even get to host a playoff game at Neyland Stadium, which would be epic.
The selection committee will release its penultimate rankings on Tuesday as we head into conference championship weekend. That should provide a pretty good road map into what will happen on Selection Sunday.
The caveat: the committee can always reverse course and change everything up. There are no real rules here.
That said, a case can be made that 11 spots in this inaugural 12-team tournament are set. That suggests this is working out quite perfectly, because while there will be howls about seeding (Tennessee or Ohio State at 8?), the last team out will own a flawed resume and plenty of moments of regret that put them there.
As for the playoff teams, 11 spots are likely wrapped up:
Big Ten (4): Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana
SEC (3): Texas, Georgia, Tennessee
ACC (1): Championship game victor (SMU or Clemson)
Big 12 (1): Championship game victor (Arizona State or Iowa State)
Mountain West (1): Championship game victor (Boise State or UNLV*)
Independent (1): Notre Dame
(*There is a possibility of 11-1 Army, should it win the AAC Championship Game, of moving ahead of UNLV, but my guess is that the Rebels would get the nod with a win.)
That leaves one final spot, and the committee will have to make a decision between a bunch of teams that all have compelling pros and cons to their inclusion/exclusion. While that means it is likely a close choice, it isn’t the same as a “bad” choice.
The viable contenders (listed by record) for that last at-large spot are as such:
• SMU (11-2) if it loses in the ACC title game
• Boise State (11-2) if it loses the MWC title game
• Miami (10-2)
• BYU (10-2)
• Alabama (9-3)
• Ole Miss (9-3)
• South Carolina (9-3)
SMU and Boise State’s argument — beyond all the comparative metrics — would be pretty simple, at least philosophically. The Mustangs (No. 9) and the Broncos (No. 11) are expected to be ranked in similar spots (or higher) again on Tuesday, which would mean the committee — as of the completion of the regular season — considers them both to be playoff teams.
If that is the case after 12 games, why should they have to win in a 13th game to still be considered better than a cast of contenders that got to sit home on the couch and watch? Making a team run a longer race than the others doesn’t make intellectual sense.
But does the committee believe that? They didn’t in 2022 when Ohio State (which didn’t play conference championship weekend) leapfrogged USC (which did and lost) to reach the playoffs.
So who knows?
As for everyone else, it’s like picking the favorite ingredient out of a bowl of gumbo. So you like quality wins (Alabama)? Quality losses (BYU, Miami)? Margin of results (Ole Miss)? Number of victories (SMU, Boise State)? Late-season momentum (South Carolina)? Strength of schedule (Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina)?
There is plenty of push from the SEC that one of its teams deserve the final bid because of the strength of the league. In terms of past titles — and NFL talent — perhaps. This is a new era of the sport, though.
Conference expansion and the transfer portal have shaken everything up. Consider that the four major conferences could crown a champion that wasn’t in the league last season: ACC (SMU, American); Big Ten (Oregon, Pac-12); Big 12 (Arizona State, Pac-12) and SEC (Texas, Big 12).
In terms of this year, the SEC doesn’t own a lot of impressive non-conference victories over other leagues. Georgia beat Clemson and Georgia Tech. South Carolina beat Clemson. The only other victories over Power 4 teams with winning records: Texas over 7-5 Michigan and Missouri over 7-5 Boston College.
The SEC’s reputation is strong, its actual results don’t pop off a page, though
Will that matter?
There is no telling, although the big tell Tuesday will be the order of these teams, most notably where the committee puts a two-loss Miami club. Even then, opinion may swing wildly by Sunday.
What is clear, though, is that the teams that do get left out may have a complaint about how they compare to who did get that final bid, but they can’t pout too much about how they got themselves in this position.
Win more games or risk it.
Otherwise ignore the noise, the first season of the 12-team playoff is playing out pretty smoothly.