Because the Indianapolis Colts won on Sunday the focus was on the positive part of Anthony Richardson’s stat line — 56 yards rushing on 14 attempts — and not another troubling one.
The tone of Richardson’s news conference after a 16-10 win over the Miami Dolphins was happy, with him getting questions on his running ability, the Colts’ defense and even his muted first-down celebrations.
“I’m here because I’m me. I think I’m one of one, honestly,” Richardson said. “Not many people can do what I do.”
There’s truth in that, but it’s not all positive. Richardson is the most unique athlete playing quarterback in the NFL, a massive man who runs like a receiver. But he’s also the only starting quarterback in the NFL this season, and one of the very few over the past two decades, who isn’t completing half of his passes. He was 10 of 24 for 129 yards on Sunday. That puts him at 48.5% on the season. He has twice as many interceptions (6) as touchdown passes (3).
The Colts are 4-3 but on Sunday, there was a little bit of booing from the home crowd as the offense was stuck in the second half.
“I heard them booing, but I didn’t know who they were booing,” Richardson said. “We know we have to execute.”
It’s an unusual situation for the Colts. They drafted Richardson fourth overall in 2023 because of his immense talent, knowing it might take a while for him to develop. And the running side of Richardson’s game is keeping him afloat, though we’ve already seen him sustain multiple injuries through two seasons. But how many years will it be before Richardson pays off as a passer? The Colts also got a look at the offense with Joe Flacco running it, while Richardson was injured. With roughly the same amount of passing attempts this season, Flacco has a 102.2 passer rating while Richardson’s is 60. Flacco probably gives Indianapolis the best chance to win right now, but the right now matters a lot less than the visions of the finished product with Richardson.
The stark truth through the first part of the season is it seems like it will take multiple years for Richardson to get to where he needs to go. And the NFL isn’t a patient league.
Anthony Richardson’s passing comps aren’t good
There haven’t been many full seasons this century that look like Richardson’s start. And the list isn’t pretty.
Here are all of the quarterbacks to have more than 200 attempts since 2000, and complete 50 percent or fewer of their passes. You’ll recognize some of these names as memorable draft busts:
Ryan Leaf, 2000 (50%)
Akili Smith, 2000 (44.2%)
Mark Brunell, 2004 (49.8%)
J.P. Losman, 2004 (49.6%)
Mike McMahon, 2005 (45.4%)
JaMarcus Russell, 2009 (48.8%)
Tim Tebow, 2011 (46.5%)
That’s only seven players, and most came in the 2000s. Since the start of the 2012 season, there has been only one player to attempt 150 passes and complete fewer than 50% of his passes: Drew Stanton for the 2017 Arizona Cardinals.
This season, among players with 100 attempts, Jacoby Brissett is the only other quarterback under 61%. He was benched by the New England Patriots. Brissett completed 58.5% of his passes; Richardson is at 48.5%. Richardson has been 10% worse than any other regular QB in the NFL this season. And nobody improves 10% on their completion percentage overnight.
The NFL passing game has evolved and a quarterback completing fewer than 60% of his passes isn’t sustainable. Richardson isn’t even close to 60%. He has a cannon of an arm and the ability to hit big plays downfield, but isn’t close to being a viable passer yet. It’s hard to keep up in the NFL without a normal passing game.
This season’s best-case comparison for Richardson among the quarterbacks listed above might be Tebow. The 2011 Denver Broncos, thanks to a fantastic defense, some good fortune in close games and Tebow’s running ability, went 8-8 and won the AFC West. After that season, Tebow threw eight more passes in the NFL.
That’s not what the Colts signed up for when they drafted Richardson fourth overall. But if Richardson improves from where he’s at to become a reliable NFL passer, that’s truly when he’ll become one of one.
Can Richardson develop quickly enough for the Colts?
Everyone’s go-to example for an inaccurate quarterback fixing that problem rapidly is Josh Allen. He was 52.8% as a rookie, then went to 58.8% in his second season and 69.2% in his third. But there’s a reason everyone points to Allen. There are almost no other cases like him.
But Allen does provide a template. And Richardson is famously inexperienced. He had only 13 college starts. Due to injuries last season, he had only four starts as a rookie. The Colts went into this era with eyes wide open, understanding that there would be ups and downs. There was no microwave approach to his development. But with quarterbacks getting $55 million or more per season and Richardson’s rookie deal being just four years with a fifth-year option, they can’t let him develop in a crockpot either.
The Colts aren’t benching Richardson for Flacco anytime soon. They’re winning and a 39-year-old quarterback offers no hope for the future. There might be some unspoken urge to turn to Flacco if the Colts go on a losing streak that jeopardizes their place in the AFC playoff race, but they’re unlikely to act on it. Drafting Richardson was a long-term play for the Colts.
It’s just that his regression this season is a bit troubling. When he completed 59.5% of his passes last season in a small sample size, that was a decent starting point. Below 50% isn’t close to good enough.
There’s still a chance for Richardson to have an Allen-like improvement, and if he can get to 60% as a passer that might be more than good enough given his running ability and deep passing. He’s 22 years old with only 22 starts of high-level football. There’s plenty of room to grow. But despite the wins, what the Colts have seen this season from Richardson has to make them wonder how long it will take for him to blossom, if he does at all.