A likely tropical storm is brewing and it could bring foul weather to some popular tourist destinations through this weekend.
Forecasters are watching a disturbance in the western Caribbean that’s on the cusp of growing into a tropical storm.
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The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) declared the system Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen on Friday afternoon, a designation that allows forecasters to issue watches and warnings before a disturbance actually develops into a storm.
If this system grows into the season’s fourteenth storm as expected, it would earn the name Nadine.
Fortunately, the sprawling system won’t have much time to organize itself before it makes landfall in Belize on Saturday afternoon. This would be the first named storm to hit Belize since Hurricane Lisa in November 2022.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for the coast from Belize City northward to Tulum, including Chetumal. Gusty winds and very heavy rainfall are expected here through the weekend.
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Regardless of the system’s development, flooding rains are the greatest hazard as it pushes inland over the next couple of days.
Widespread rainfall totals of 100-200 mm are expected throughout Belize, portions of southern Mexico, and northern sections of Guatemala. The system’s rains will extend far inland from the point of landfall, with flooding likely toward the Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca.
The NHC notes that some areas in southern Mexico could see as much as 300 mm of rain from this system. This region is highly susceptible to flash flooding and landslides, especially around hilly and mountainous terrain.
Elsewhere, forecasters are watching a disturbance northeast of the Caribbean with a low chance of development over the next week. Other than that additional disturbance, conditions remain relatively quiet across the rest of the Atlantic basin, and there are no tropical threats to the U.S. or Canada in the next week.
Header image courtesy of NOAA.
Stay with The Weather Network for the latest updates throughout hurricane season.