Every year, the Global Business Forum in Banff, Alta., hosts experts from around the world to discuss geopolitical issues and global trends.
Major topics this year included geopolitical instability, wars and the U.S. election. Concerning Canada, experts agreed that the country must bolster its military forces and update critically important trade infrastructure, such as ports, railways and roads. Both the Armed Forces and infrastructure have been neglected by the Trudeau government for years.
The kickoff speaker was the distinguished American global thinker Robert Kaplan, a bestselling author of 22 books on foreign affairs. He is with the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Washington, D.C., and previously served on the Pentagon’s defence policy board and the U.S. Navy’s executive panel. He addressed world events, but also the U.S. election.
“The centre is gone in U.S. politics,” said Kaplan. “There is a move to the edges, and each side considers the other an existential threat.”
That makes it more difficult for Canada to navigate its relationship with the United States, no matter who wins the presidency. One speaker noted that Trump-bashing by Canadian Liberals is particularly unhelpful. Another said that the Bloc Québécois’ demand that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau protect supply management for farmers in Quebec will pose problems in upcoming trade negotiations with the U.S.
It’s clear that if Donald Trump wins, Canada will have to spend dramatically more on its military and Arctic security. It has been a laggard and failed to meet its two per cent of GDP commitment to NATO.
Globally, Kaplan said, instability will persist because competing interests will increasingly clash and fight for limited resources, wealth and dominance. The current pace of competition is “ferocious, economically and militarily,” he said.
“The Middle East war will last until there is a revolution in Iran,” he predicted. “Polls show that 80 per cent of Iranians hate their regime.” (The last Iranian revolution occurred in 1979 when Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew the shah of Iran. A theocracy has ruled ever since, but the country has been restive since the backlash against the killing of Mahsa Amini in state custody in 2022.)
In Canada, infrastructure shortfalls pose a potential risk due to how important exports are to our economy. One example cited was that there are only two rail lines carrying commodities into Vancouver through the Fraser Valley, which is prone to wildfires and mudslides. An interruption to this transit corridor would be catastrophic.
“There is the infrastructure that Canadians want — like parks and rec facilities; the infrastructure Canadians need — like hospitals and green transit; and then there’s the infrastructure that enables and pays for wants and needs — that’s trade infrastructure,” reads the Canada West Foundation‘s website. It has published many reports on what trade-related infrastructure needs to be upgraded across the country, a growing list that has fallen on deaf ears in Ottawa.
One speaker reminded the audience of Canada’s biggest infrastructure failure to date: the cancellation of an east-west oil pipeline. This has made Canada dependent on oil imports from the United States and elsewhere, even though it’s one of the biggest oil producers in the world. “It makes no sense,” said one expert. “We don’t have self-sufficiency despite our energy wealth.”
But one bright spot was that Canada, or rather Ontario, is becoming a world leader in the nuclear resurgence that’s underway involving small modular reactors. Nuclear offers the best hope of fighting climate change and meeting the soaring power needs that technology and artificial intelligence require.
“One AI image consumes as much electricity as charging your cellphone overnight. One chat query uses up 10 times more power than a Google search,” said Scott Thon, co-chair of the Global Business Forum and president of Berkshire Hathaway Energy.
The forum’s wide-ranging program also dealt with topics such as India’s rapid rise to superpower status, and the changing global strategic architecture and trading relationships. Despite the challenges, there was one bright spot concerning Russia’s war-mongering. As Kaplan said, “Every month of war in Ukraine weakens Russia economically and militarily.”