Donald Trump closing in on 270, but 2024 U.S. presidential election final result remains too close to call

With vote counts pouring in from across the United States, the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is proving to be one of the tightest in recent memory. Canadian and American experts are weighing in on why the 2024 U.S. presidential election remains too close to call.

The Republicans have taken control of the Senate and according to Reuters and The Associated Press, Trump has North Carolina, and have also declared Georgia in favour of Trump. However, other key swing states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and others remain too close to call.

This close race underscores the country’s polarization and highlights the procedural complexities in American elections that leave outcomes in suspense well beyond election day.

Delayed vote counting key regions

In battleground states like Pennsylvania and Arizona, vote counts are delayed due to local laws prohibiting the early processing of mail-in ballots, which are expected to skew in favour of Harris.

So far both candidates are seeing strong support in different areas, with Harris leading in urban centres and Trump maintaining his base in rural counties. This divide emphasizes the broader geographic polarization between urban and rural voters.

“The reality is that cities are being counted slower than the countryside, and cities will all break towards Kamala Harris,” Stephen Saideman, an international affairs expert at Carleton University explained.

He added that early calls can create misleading narratives around the outcome.

“Republicans have created an environment in which they don’t allow these votes to be counted until the day of,” Saideman said.

Electoral college challenge

Another layer of uncertainty stems from the electoral college system, which amplifies the significance of key swing states.

Melissa Haussman, North American political science expert at Carleton University, pointed out that “key parts of states have not yet reported and so they don’t want to make the report until they get more of the precincts and districts in.”

Pennsylvania, for example, did not start counting mail-in ballots until Tuesday, leading to extended delays and potential shifts in vote totals.

Shifting voter demographics

Trump is performing better than expected among Latino voters and rural communities, which could narrow the margins in states previously leaning toward Harris.

“Trump is over-performing with rural voters and Latino voters compared to 2020,” Lewis Krashinsky, political behaviour expert at the University of Toronto, noted.

Razor-thin margins and rising polarization

As Krashinsky highlighted, “razor-thin margins” in several states are a reflection of the deeply divided American electorate.

“This is the reality of American elections these days,” Krashinsky said.

A recent survey showed that many Americans are concerned about the security of the electoral process, reflecting anxieties around potential attempts to influence or disrupt the final results.

Looking ahead

As results continue to be processed, the spotlight will remain on states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin, which could determine the election outcome. But if Harris eventually overtakes Trump in these states, it may intensify claims of election fraud among Trump supporters.

“Votes of people who voted before today are just as legitimate as those of people who voted today.” Saideman said. The challenge, however, will be ensuring that all votes are counted accurately and accepted by a skeptical public.”

In an era of rising partisanship, every step of the election process is scrutinized, making it increasingly difficult to declare a winner on election night. With a divided electorate and complex vote count processes, this race, much like recent elections, will require patience as the country waits for a final call.