Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we will take a deeper dive into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more in fact or fiction moving forward.
[Last week: The NBA’s 2024 free-agency class was a dud]
Fact or Fiction: LeBron James’ Lakers are stuck in the middle
Following a road victory against the defending champion Boston Celtics this season, Golden State Warriors superstar Stephen Curry simplified matters: “A good team, or a relevant team, wins the games they’re supposed to win, steals a couple on the road against good teams and protects home court.”
By this definition, LeBron James’ Los Angeles Lakers (12-10) are a good team. They are in place for a play-in tournament bid in a crowded Western Conference. They are 10-3 against teams with a worse record than them, they have stolen three road wins from would-be postseason teams, and they are 7-3 at home.
But what makes a great team? It wins more than the games it’s supposed to. Championship teams this century have won on average 63% of their games against teams with a .500 record or better during the regular season. And they steal more than a couple on the road against good teams. Title teams since 2000 have similarly averaged a .635 winning percentage against teams on the road in the regular season.
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Only three teams have exceeded both marks through the first quarter of this season: the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder, which is a pretty good short list of the true contenders.
Just how much do these benchmarks mean to a team’s title aspirations? Only one of the 25 champions this century, the 2006 Miami Heat, finished below .500 (19-21) against opponents with winning records. And only one champion since 2000, the 2023 Denver Nuggets, registered a sub-.500 record (19-22) on the road. In other words, it is practically impossible to win a title with a losing record in both categories.
Two other teams — the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets — are better than .500 on the road and against winning opponents. You can also feel good about including them on any longer list of contenders. One made the NBA Finals last season; the other is in second place in that stacked Western Conference.
The full list for all teams this season in both categories:
No team is fighting harder than the Lakers against championship indicators to log a winning record.
They are 5-9 against teams with winning records and 5-7 on the road. Since the season’s first two games, when James and Anthony Davis were fresh from an offseason, the Lakers have three quality wins — one against the Memphis Grizzlies, who were without Ja Morant, and two against the 11-10 San Antonio Spurs.
Over the past two weeks, as the grind of the regular season takes its toll on a 39-year-old James and the oft-injured Davis, the Lakers have been outscored by 16.8 points per 100 possessions, losers of four 20-point blowouts. Only the Washington Wizards, who have lost 15 straight, have been worse in that span.
The Lakers own a -4.7 net rating, equal to both the Charlotte Hornets (6-15) and a 27-win projection.
That is startling. More concerning: The Lakers are being outscored by 9.3 points per 100 possessions when James is on the floor. Their rating offensively (109.0) and defensively (118.3) when he is on the court is equivalent to the NBA’s 25th- and 29th-ranked outfits. (That is bad.) It does not help that the Lakers have surrounded him with porous defenders, save Davis. And it is a wonder they have the record they do.
By this definition, not Curry’s, the Lakers are not even a good team. But we will give them the benefit of the doubt. I do not care to argue about whether they are good, average or bad. They are not great.
Whether James is hitting a wall at age 40 is a question for another day — and one anyone should beware. What is clear is that he has not been the same player he was to start the season. Those splits:
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First 11 games: 24.3 points (52/46/79 shooting splits), 9.4 assists (3.1 turnovers), 8.1 rebounds a game
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Last 11 games: 20.3 points (46/22/71 shooting splits), 8.7 assists (5.1 turnovers), 7.7 rebounds a game
And often this level of defense:
What does it mean for James to be on a “good” team so far from great? That is the question, and it is one only he can answer. The realization will come this season if it has not already. Because we do know now the Lakers are miles from true contention. In order to achieve those aforementioned 63% benchmarks, the Lakers would have to finish the season 23-7 against teams with winning records and 21-8 on the road.
That is not happening, not with a -4.7 net rating. Not when blowout losses are compounding. Not when, a few weeks shy of his 40th birthday, James has yet to miss a single game, and Davis has only missed one.
Knowing that, do the Lakers get desperate? And what does that desperation look like? Zach LaVine is not elevating them to true contention, where Boston, Cleveland and Oklahoma City reside. They have little to offer beyond what young talent remains (Austin Reaves, Dalton Knecht and their ceilings) and first-round draft picks in 2029 and 2031. To mortgage that for good, or for relevant, requires an answer from James.
The Lakers need to know where James stands on this season, the next and beyond. Or they have to make their own call. To deal the rest of this decade’s assets for a team that cannot win the title — and could see James retire at any season’s end — would be madness. But what do we call what it is they are doing?
The Lakers have failed to win a playoff series in three of the past four seasons and are on pace to make it four out of five. In that span, they are 97-137 (.415 winning percentage) against teams with winning records and 77-93 on the road (.453 winning percentage), about what they are now. Nothing has changed.
And why should we expect it to? James is clearly in decline, as he should be at 40, though his is nowhere as steep as everybody else’s. (Are we supposed to say that?) Yet he is owed $48.7 million this season and $52.6 million next season. It has proven impossible to reconstruct a contender around James and Davis, because they can no longer carry one on their own, and their salaries do not allow for much assistance.
This is the Catch-22 in Los Angeles. James is good enough to make the Lakers relevant, but no longer good enough to make them contenders. So the sideshow must go on. How much longer, only James can tell us.
Determination: Fact. LeBron James’ Lakers are stuck in the middle.