(Bloomberg) — Steadily falling gasoline prices are providing a tailwind for US Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign for the nation’s highest office as Donald Trump seeks to rile inflation-weary consumers by attacking her record on energy.
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Retail gasoline prices have fallen to a six-month low in the US and are only expected to fall further amid weaker-than-expected demand and a slumping outlook for the crude oil used to manufacture motor fuels. Regular unleaded was averaging $3.296 a gallon as of Thursday, down more than 10% from this year’s peak in April, according to data from auto club AAA.
The drop may provide Harris with a bump among voters who aren’t shy about blaming the White House for high gasoline prices, a key signal of how inflation is eating into their wallets, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and an adviser in the George W. Bush administration.
A recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll showed that roughly three in 10 voters in battleground states consider fuel prices the most crucial economic issue for them. In a portent of what may be in store for retail pump prices, benchmark New York gasoline futures have slumped to a 3 1/2-year low.
Harris “is getting very lucky,” McNally said in an interview. “The most visible price in life is falling.”
Trump has repeatedly assailed Democrats for energy prices that soared in the post-pandemic period, pledging to “drill, baby, drill” and take other steps to bolster fuel supplies. The former president vowed on Thursday to cut energy prices in half if re-elected, pledging to approve new drilling, pipelines, and refineries.
“Kamala Harris can’t bring down the price of anything because her energy policies are bringing up the cost of everything,” Trump said in an address to the Economic Club of New York. Trump’s attacks on energy and inflation are likely to continue in the run up to Tuesday night, when he and Harris are scheduled to face off in their first debate.
Despite the relatively recent price decline, gasoline is still almost 40% higher than when President Joe Biden took office in January 2021.
The Trump campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment. When contacted, the Harris campaign pointed to a previous statement that said Trump’s economic plan will “make life more expensive” for Americans by, among other things, raising the cost of gasoline.
Lower gasoline prices take a powerful cudgel away from Trump, who hasn’t been shy about blasting the Biden administration for moves such as the revocation of a key permit for TC Energy Corp.’s Keystone pipeline and the throttling of oil and natural gas leasing on federal lands.
“The issue is relevant because Republicans keep bringing it up,” said Kevin Book, managing director of Washington consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners. “They have a sense that it resonates with voters who are driving longer distance on lower incomes.”
As many as 30 states could see sub-$3 gasoline by Election Day in November, said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at fuel tracker GasBuddy.
“The timing looks pretty favorable,” DeHaan said. “We could see the national average falling under three dollars a gallon mark since the first time since Biden took the White House. We are talking about some metrics that American’s haven’t seen in a long time.”
–With assistance from Hadriana Lowenkron and Akayla Gardner.
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