Thursday, November 21, 2024

Fantasy Basketball: 12-Team, 9-Cat Salary Mock Draft

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It’s officially “draft season” for fantasy basketball, with most managers going through mock exercises before doing the “real thing.” Rotoworld’s Raphielle Johnson and Noah Rubin recently participated in a 12-manager salary mock draft (click the link to watch it unfold) hosted by Fantasy Basketball International’s Adam King, filling out rosters for a 9-cat, head-to-head league. Salary mocks are interesting because most take one of two approaches to fill out their rosters.

For some, it’s the “stars and scrubs” method, allocating most of their cap space to two or three players and then paying the minimum (or a little more) to fill out the team. Others prefer a more balanced approach. While this may mean missing out on a Victor Wembanyama, Nikola Jokic, or Luka Doncic, the overall roster may have better balance. Below are the results of this mock draft in order of winning bid and some early takeaways.

Player Winning Bid

Victor Wembanyama 92

Nikola Jokic 83

It didn’t take long for things to get crazy, as Wembanyama was the first player nominated. $92 is an extraordinary amount for a player, even one with Wemby’s perceived upside (and floor). His price should average out in the seventies by the time mid-October rolls around. That bidding also impacted Jokic’s final price, with the three-time MVP being the fourth player nominated. Like Wembanyama, the Joker’s price should be in the seventies (likely a few dollars less) the closer we get to the regular season.

Luka Doncic 65

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 65

Anthony Davis 60

Three other players went off the board with price tags of $60 or more, and they’re among the top six in our preseason 9-cat (per-game) rankings. Doncic and SGA going for $65 isn’t a major surprise; the gap between them and Wembanyama/Jokic was too significant, but that happens in mid-September. As for Davis, $60 may be a bit much for some, given the injury history, but he did play 76 regular-season games in 2023-24. With the state of the Lakers’ roster, they need AD to play as often as possible to have any chance of being a factor in the West.

Giannis Antetokounmpo 49

Tyrese Haliburton 42

Joel Embiid 41

Jayson Tatum 41

Donovan Mitchell 41

Was Embiid’s final price too low? That argument can certainly be made, given his per-game production. However, last season’s injury woes may have scared some managers, not to mention Embiid’s participation in the Paris Olympics. An entire offseason to recover may be the preference of fantasy managers, but Embiid can’t be blamed for his decision to contribute to the Olympic gold medal-winning team. If his availability is closer to the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, Embiid could be a steal if his average price remains in the forties.

LaMelo Ball 39

Trae Young 37

Stephen Curry 37

Devin Booker 37

Chet Holmgren 36

Kawhi Leonard 35

James Harden 35

Ball’s price tag was an eye-opener. He’s shown the ability to be an impactful option in fantasy basketball, most notably the 2021-22 season. However, he’s played 58 games since, including 22 during the 2023-24 campaign. That did not deter the managers in this mock draft from driving the price, with Ball coming in at $39. Should LaMelo be more expensive than Young or Holmgren? That’s a fair question, but this wasn’t a case of any of those prices being severely out of whack.

Leonard coming in at $35 may indicate lingering concern following his early exit from USA Basketball’s pre-Olympic training camp. Will he be a full go when the season begins? And can Kawhi shoulder more of the workload with Paul George moving on to Philadelphia? At $35, Harden may be a steal if that’s where his price lands in October.

Scottie Barnes 35

Anthony Edwards 33

Kyrie Irving 33

Kevin Durant 32

Tyrese Maxey 32

Fred VanVleet 31

Paul George 30

De’Aaron Fox 29

Evan Mobley 29

Alperen Sengun 28

Domantas Sabonis 27

Jalen Brunson 27

Brunson at $27 and Lillard at $26 could be steals in category leagues, given the importance to their respective teams. The same can be said for Markkanen ($25), even with some concern about a potential shutdown if Utah is not in contention for a postseason berth. However, fantasy managers should avoid assuming that a player will be shut down in salary or “conventional” drafts. There’s more than enough time before the February trade deadline to make adjustments based on the direction a team is headed.

LeBron James 26

Damian Lillard 26

Dejounte Murray 26

Lauri Markkanen 25

Jaren Jackson 25

Cade Cunningham 25

Bam Adebayo 25

Karl-Anthony Towns 24

Jalen Johnson 24

Jalen Williams 23

Paolo Banchero 22

Ja Morant 22

Jaylen Brown 21

Zion Williamson 21

Morant ($22), Brown ($21), and Williamson ($21) were among the value buys in this mock draft. Simply put, this exercise served as a reminder that managers can cash in by exercising patience and fiscal discipline. Quickley ($20) may also fall into that category, as the Raptors made clear how highly they view him with that lucrative extension this summer. Was Siakam ($19) undervalued? He’ll have an entire training camp to work with Tyrese Haliburton and the other Pacers, which should improve on-court chemistry.

Jimmy Butler 21

Devin Vassell 21

Immanuel Quickley 20

Pascal Siakam 19

DeMar DeRozan 19

Desmond Bane 19

Franz Wagner 19

Trey Murphy 19

Derrick White 17

Myles Turner 16

Jalen Duren 16

Some players in this price range, including Murray, Bridges, and Allen, represent incredible value. The concern for the former is that he didn’t look completely healthy at the end of Denver’s season or playing for Canada at the Olympics. That didn’t deter the Nuggets from agreeing to an extension with Murray, who becomes a player of even greater importance to his team with another starter (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) leaving this summer.

Darius Garland 15

Tobias Harris 15

Jamal Murray 15

Mark Williams 15

D’Angelo Russell 14

Mikal Bridges 14

Jarrett Allen 14

Miles Bridges 13

Julius Randle 13

Isaiah Hartenstein 13

OG Anunoby 13

Zach LaVine 13

Brandon Ingram 12

Bradley Beal 12

Jalen Suggs 12

Jordan Poole 11

Brandon Miller 11

Josh Giddey 11

Rudy Gobert 11

Cameron Thomas 11

Jabari Smith 11

Onyeka Okongwu 11

Clint Capela 11

Deandre Ayton 10

CJ McCollum 10

Nicolas Claxton 10

Khris Middleton 10

Keegan Murray 9

Jusuf Nurkic 9

Tyler Herro 9

Anfernee Simons 9

Ivica Zubac 9

Nikola Vucevic 8

Coby White 8

Michael Porter 8

Daniel Gafford 8

Bogdan Bogdanovic 8

Walker Kessler 8

Jrue Holiday 7

Austin Reaves 7

Brandin Podziemski 7

Jonathan Kuminga 7

Chris Paul 7

Jakob Poeltl 7

Jalen Green 6

Terry Rozier 6

Amen Thompson 6

Brook Lopez 6

Klay Thompson 6

Kyle Kuzma 5

Naz Reid 5

John Collins 5

Scoot Henderson 5

Marcus Smart 5

Alex Caruso 4

RJ Barrett 4

Collin Sexton 4

Herbert Jones 4

Keyonte George 4

Cameron Johnson 4

Tyus Jones 4

Al Horford 3

Jonas Valanciunas 3

Kristaps Porzingis 3

Donte DiVincenzo 3

Taylor Hendricks 3

Trayce Jackson-Davis 3

Dereck Lively 3

Deni Avdija 3

P.J. Washington 3

Shaedon Sharpe 3

Jonathan Isaac 2

Dennis Schroder 2

Dyson Daniels 2

Draymond Green 2

Aaron Nesmith 2

Noah Clowney 2

Josh Hart 2

Norman Powell 2

Zach Edey 2

Alex Sarr 2

Jerami Grant 2

Keon Ellis 2

Mike Conley 1

Jaden Ivey 1

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 1

Gary Trent 1

Ausar Thompson 1

Kelly Olynyk 1

De’Anthony Melton 1

Grayson Allen 1

Max Strus 1

Jeremy Sochan 1

Bobby Portis 1

Tari Eason 1

Kelly Oubre Jr. 1

Aaron Gordon 1

Mitchell Robinson 1

Malik Monk 1

Jordan Clarkson 1

Buddy Hield 1

Andre Drummond 1

Raphielle’s Team

Nikola Jokic ($83)
Tyrese Maxey ($32)
Jayson Tatum ($41)
Jaylen Brunson ($27)
Naz Reid ($5)
John Collins ($5)
Mike Conley ($1)
De’Anthony Melton ($1)
Max Strus ($1)
Tari Eason ($1)
Aaron Gordon ($1)
Malik Monk ($1)
Buddy Hield ($1)

Raphielle’s thoughts: I went into the draft to avoid spending more than $55 on any single player. Four nominations later, that went out the window, with Jokic being the target. I won, but at what cost? It proved to be an issue during the latter stages of the draft, as I lost out on low-cost targets such as Terry Rozier and Jonathan Isaac. While the top end of this roster looks good, there isn’t much margin for error regarding injury.

Noah’s Team

Kevin Durant ($32)
Domantas Sabonis ($27)
Damian Lillard ($26)
Pascal Siakam ($19)
Cade Cunningham ($25)
Ja Morant ($22)
Jrue Holiday ($7)
Jaylen Brown ($21)
Jonathan Isaac ($2)
Terry Rozier ($6)
Tyler Herro ($9)
Zach Edey ($2)
Keon Ellis ($2)

Noah’s thoughts: I didn’t enter into this auction mock with a plan (simply because it was just a mock), but that isn’t necessarily bad. Sure, you can have a list of players to target that fit a specific build that you feel fits together perfectly and will win you your league, but then your plan gets thrown out the window after one or two players.

For example, Victor Wembanyama went for $92 in this league. You were going to have to pay a premium to get the top-tier guys. Nikola Jokic went for $83, and Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went for $65. However, after Wemby, Jokic, and Luka were gone, some managers may have felt they needed to pull back and be a bit more conservative, allowing me to slip in and get Kevin Durant for $32. Fred VanVleet, who is generally drafted about two rounds later than KD, went for $31 a bit later in the draft.

The lesson isn’t, “Look at this great value I got in a meaningless mock!” In auction drafts, timing is everything, and there isn’t a one-size-fits-all dollar amount for each player. Conversely, you don’t want to hold onto all your money just to let everyone spend theirs, especially if they’re getting players at good value. If other managers are being conservative, get the guys nominated early. If they’re blowing the bag immediately, take a step back and be patient. Zig when others zag.

They take much longer than snake drafts, but you can get incredible value in auction drafts if you play your cards right. My method in this draft was to set a maximum dollar amount in my mind when each player was nominated. If there was a player I wanted that went higher than my amount, I didn’t overpay. This draft was a lot of fun, and if you stay disciplined, you can end up with an incredibly strong team.

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