Thursday, September 19, 2024

Fantasy Basketball: 2024-25 Atlantic Division Team Previews

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By Raphielle Johnson

The 2024-25 NBA season is a little over one month away, making this prime time for fantasy managers to prepare for their drafts. Rotoworld will have articles dropping throughout this time, beginning with fantasy-related thoughts on every team. We’ll start with the Atlantic, which boasts the reigning champions and two other teams with title aspirations. Fantasy-wise, two Atlantic Division stars are worthy of first-round consideration, and a few others are unlikely to get out of the third round in most drafts.

2024-25 NBA Atlantic Division Team Previews

Boston Celtics

2023-24 Record: 64-18

Pace: 97.2 (23rd)

Offensive Rating: 123.2 (1st)

Defensive Rating: 111.6 (3rd)

One Potential Sleeper: Jrue Holiday

While his value to the Celtics never wavered in his first season with the team, Holiday’s fantasy value did take a hit. He finished the regular season ranked outside the top 50 in per-game value for the first time since the 2016-17 campaign, and Holiday had not failed to crack the top 70 since 2012-13. While they do not play the same position, Kristaps Porzingis‘ absence following left leg surgery means there will be one less marquee offensive option in the lineup when the season begins. Add in the Celtics’ need to manage Al Horford‘s minutes, as he did not play both ends of any back-to-backs last season, and Holiday’s defensive versatility could benefit him offensively. Getting Jrue in the 7th round of drafts may represent excellent fantasy value by the season’s end.

One Potential Bust: Kristaps Porzingis

Low-hanging fruit here, and not for skill reasons. Porzingis admirably played through a serious leg injury during the NBA Finals, and the result was a surgery in late June that’s expected to sideline him for 5-6 months. Add in the ramp-up time and the Celtics’ focus on being healthy for the stretch run, and it isn’t difficult to envision a scenario in which Porzigis doesn’t play half of the team’s regular season games. This should not remove him from your boards altogether, but KP is someone to pass on during the first half of drafts.

Notable Number: +11.6

Boston’s net rating led the NBA last season and tied with the 2016-17 Warriors for the third-best in league history. Joe Mazzulla’s team was dominant on both ends of the floor, winning 64 regular season games before ripping off a 16-3 record during the playoffs. Even with Porzingis unlikely to return before November at the earliest, the Celtics are well-equipped to repeat, and they won’t lack quality fantasy options, either. And given how their respective summers went regarding playing time for Team USA, Jayson Tatum (out of the rotation on most days) and Jaylen Brown (not selected to replace Kawhi Leonard) should not lack motivation.

Brooklyn Nets

2023-24 Record: 32-50

Pace: 96.9 (26th)

Offensive Rating: 113.2 (23rd)

Defensive Rating: 116.1 (20th)

One Potential Sleeper: Noah Clowney

With the Nets shifting into rebuild mode this offseason, it’s clear that some of the team’s younger players will have every opportunity to prove themselves in 2024-25. That includes Clowney, a 2023 first-round pick who played well to finish his rookie season. He started four of Brooklyn’s final six games, averaging 13.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 2.2 blocks, and 1.3 3-pointers in 30.6 minutes, shooting 61.2% from the field and 72.2% from the foul line. Clowney’s ability to step away from the basket offensively means he offers a dimension that starting center Nic Claxton does not, and there may be times when they’re on the floor together for that reason. Clowney is worth taking a late-round flier on, especially if Brooklyn moves another frontcourt veteran (or more) at some point.

One Potential Bust: Cam Thomas

At first glance, the departure of Mikal Bridges will boost Cam Thomas’ numbers. He finished last season with a usage of 30.7, which should only increase for the prolific scorer. In 66 games, he averaged 22.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.7 steals, and 2.2 3-pointers in 31.4 minutes, shooting 44.2% from the field and 85.6% from the foul line. However, despite the increased usage and production, Thomas still finished last season ranked outside the top 100. The issue regarding fantasy value is that he doesn’t offer a great deal outside of points and 3-pointers, thus limiting Thomas’ upside. Can he change that in 2024-25? It’s possible, but fantasy managers should temper their expectations ahead of Thomas’ fourth season in Brooklyn.

Notable Number: 45.6%

The Nets were one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA last season, ranking 28th in field goal percentage (45.6) and 19th in 3-point percentage (36.2%). And when your best remaining perimeter scorers (Thomas and Dennis Schroder) struggle with efficiency, that stands to limit the fantasy values of most of the Nets’ rotation players. While Claxton’s fantasy value should hold steady, if not improve, there isn’t much upside on this roster beyond Clowney.

New York Knicks

2023-24 Record: 50-32

Pace: 95.2 (30th)

Offensive Rating: 118.2 (7th)

Defensive Rating: 113.4 (10th)

One Potential Sleeper: Precious Achiuwa

While the Knicks added Mikal Bridges via trade, they did incur a significant loss as Isaiah Hartenstein signed with the Thunder in free agency. Mitchell Robinson will return to the fold after undergoing a second ankle surgery in May. Still, his medical history means he may not be the most reliable option despite being the starter. Also, Robinson isn’t guaranteed to be healthy when training camp begins. That may boost Achiuwa’s value, as he and Jericho Sims are in line to serve as the backups. Precious had his moments, especially during a nine-game stretch in January/February, in which he averaged 14.9 points, 10.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.6 blocks in 41.2 minutes. Achiuwa will not come close to that minutes average in 2024-25, but there will be times when his rebound prowess is needed, especially if Robinson can’t stay healthy.

One Potential Bust: OG Anunoby

The word “bust” may be harsh for Anunoby, who hit the jackpot in free agency this summer. However, injuries are a concern for the Knicks wing, who appeared in 50 games between New York and Toronto in 2023-24. After appearing in 67 games or more in his first three seasons, Anunoby has hit that number once in the last four (67 appearances in 2022-23). A hamstring injury suffered during Game 2 of the Knicks’ second-round series against the Pacers was essentially the end for Anunoby, who tried to play through the issue in Game 7. OG finished the regular season ranked just outside the top 75 in 9-cat, and the Knicks’ rotation will be deeper this season, especially on the wings.

Notable Number: 29.4

After ranking second in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage in 2022-23, the Knicks led the league last season. Robinson, Hartenstein, and Achiuwa all finished with individual percentages of 13.3 or higher, with the former at 20.7. The loss of Hartenstein is a big deal, not only because of the offensive rebounding ability (and how it impacted New York’s overall offensive production) but also because of his skills as a secondary playmaker. There will be room for others to pick up the slack, boosting the fantasy values of those who step up.

Philadelphia 76ers

2023-24 Record: 47-35

Pace: 97.5 (18th)

Offensive Rating: 116.9 (14th)

Defensive Rating: 113.8 (11th)

One Potential Sleeper: Caleb Martin

After making 49 starts and averaging 29.3 minutes per game in 2022-23, Martin took a slight hit regarding playing time in Miami last season. Appearing in 64 games (23 starts), he averaged 27.4 minutes, but his points (10.0) and assists (2.2) increased slightly. Martin decided that moving to Philadelphia was best for him, and the change in scenery may have increased his chances of being a fixture in the starting lineup. Fantasy managers won’t expect significant scoring output from Martin due to the presence of Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey. However, he’s versatile enough to offer value in other areas, potentially making Martin a worthwhile late-round target in drafts.

One Potential Bust: Kelly Oubre Jr.

Oubre is another supplementary piece whose play will be important for the 76ers this season. However, while he is a better scorer than Martin, there is concern in the non-points production. Oubre averaged 5.0 rebounds in 2022-23, and he’s met or exceeded that number in four of his last five seasons. However, Philadelphia’s clear upgrade from Tobias Harris to Paul George could negatively impact the Tsunami Papi, even if he remains in the starting lineup, as the production outside of points, rebounds, and 3-pointers has been limited.

Notable Number: 26.6

Paul George finished the 2023-24 season with a usage of 26.6, the lowest for him since the 2017-18 season with Oklahoma City (25.7). A tie that bound those two situations was the presence of three stars in the lineup. With the Thunder, George shared the floor with Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony, and Kawhi Leonard and James Harden were in the starting lineup with him in Los Angeles last season. PG will be in a similar situation with the 76ers due to the presence of Embiid and Maxey, but this should not be a concern for fantasy managers. George finished last season as a 1st-round player in 9-cat formats, and while he won’t be selected that early in drafts, he can do the same in 2024-25.

Toronto Raptors

2023-24 Record: 25-57

Pace: 99.4 (11th)

Offensive Rating: 112.3 (24th)

Defensive Rating: 118.8 (25th)

One Potential Sleeper: RJ Barrett

Throughout his NBA career, Barrett has been a player whose value to the team has exceeded his fantasy value by a significant margin. He finished last season ranked just inside the top 200 in 9-cat formats but showed signs of improvement after being traded to Toronto in late December. The issues for Barrett are limited defensive production and poor foul shooting, as he averaged 0.9 “stocks” while shooting 71.5% from the foul line last season. The good news: RJ shot a career-high 49.5% from the field and experienced significant boosts in his points, rebounds, and assists post-trade. An entire season alongside Scottie Barnes could boost Barrett’s fantasy value, making him a potential sleeper.

One Potential Bust: Scottie Barnes

As the lone Raptors player to finish last season ranked within the top 75 in fantasy, Barnes may be the only option for this section. He was excellent for most of the 2023-24 campaign, providing top-25 per-game value in 9-cat formats. However, after the acquisition of Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, Barnes was only a 6th-round player, averaging 18.5 points, 6.9 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.5 blocks, and 1.1 3-pointers. In this case, picking Barnes as a potential “bust” is not about his production falling off of a proverbial cliff but rather an inability to reach the season-long heights of the 2023-24 campaign. Using a top-25 pick on Barnes is reasonable; he should go that high in most leagues. But reaching that level with this roster could prove difficult.

Notable Number: 118.8

Toronto finished last season ranked 25th in defensive rating, the first time the franchise did not crack the top half of the league in said category since the 2014-15 campaign. And that team won 49 games before getting swept out of the playoffs; Darko Rajakovic’s squad was nowhere near contending for a postseason spot in his first season at the helm. Having a healthy Barnes on the floor will help boost the defense, as the Raptors were especially poor after losing him to injury. However, neither Barrett nor Immanuel Quickley is known as a lockdown defender. The trades of Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby were necessary, but they left significant holes in the rotation that the Raptors are still working to fill.

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