By Zak Hanshew
The 2024-25 NBA season is a little over one month away, making this prime time for fantasy managers to prepare for their drafts. Rotoworld will have articles dropping throughout this time, beginning with fantasy-related thoughts on every team. Next up in our division-by-division previews is the Northwest Division.
Oklahoma City, Denver, and Minnesota finished last season as the top three seeds in the West, with the latter reaching the Conference Finals for the first time in 20 years. And there are multiple fantasy studs in the Northwest, with Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way.
Denver Nuggets
2023-24 Record: 57-25
Pace: 97.4 (26th)
Offensive Rating: 117.8 (5th)
Defensive Rating: 112.1 (8th)
One Potential Sleeper: Christian Braun
For the second straight season, Braun is Denver’s potential sleeper pick. We here at Rotoworld were admittedly a season early on Braun. Still, with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope now in Orlando and no significant additions to the roster, Braun is in line to open the season as a starter. He’s shown flashes of quality two-way play in two seasons with the Nuggets, and as an NCAA and NBA champion, Braun has shown poise under the brightest lights. A breakout performance is undoubtedly in the cards.
One Potential Bust: Jamal Murray
Murray struggled again with availability last season, appearing in just 59 games. Following the regular season, he logged 12 playoff games and a run at the Paris Olympics for Team Canada. Murray tied his career-best mark by finishing 32nd in per-game fantasy hoops value, but fantasy managers should be leery of drafting him for the 2024-25 season after an eventful offseason. His early ADP (per Hashtag Basketball) suggests he’ll cost a mid-fourth-round pick, which may be a bit rich given his injury concerns.
Notable Number: 29.4
Denver ranked sixth in bench points per game last season and eighth in bench minutes (81.4). The Nuggets’ bench was one of the weakest in the Association, and the team relied heavily on its starters. After losing starter Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in the offseason, Christian Braun is expected to replace him in the starting five, which should mean plenty of playing time for the third-year wing.
Denver’s returning starters – Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray – should see heavy minutes again. As Denver’s presumed Sixth Man, Russell Westbrook should see expanded playing time off the bench but don’t expect heavy minutes from the rest of Denver’s secondary options.
Minnesota Timberwolves
2023-24 Record: 56-26
Pace: 97.8 (23rd)
Offensive Rating: 114.6 (17th)
Defensive Rating: 108.4 (1st)
One Potential Sleeper: Robert Dillingham
Minnesota traded up to acquire the standout one-and-done option out of Kentucky, and he should be one of the first guys off Minnesota’s bench to open up his rookie campaign. Father Time is undefeated, and Mike Conley will be 37 this season. Dillingham would presumably take over as the team’s starting point guard if he wears down or is forced to miss time. His electric offensive skillset makes him an intriguing stash in deeper leagues with the potential to be a viable option in 12-team leagues if given expanded minutes.
One Potential Bust: Rudy Gobert
At this point, you know what you get with Gobert. He’ll post a double-double average of 13 points and 11.5 rebounds, swat 1.5-2.0 shots per game, and shoot efficiently from the field. Gobert is the man for you if you’re into predictability, high floors, and low ceilings. According to Hashtag Basketball’s early ADP, Gobert is going at pick 49.3 on Yahoo, and this is now his ceiling. Grabbing a guy at his ceiling is never the best practice, so Gobert can be considered a potential bust due to the draft capital required to land him on your fantasy team. By drafting him at the current ADP, you’re spending a mid-round pick on a player who doesn’t have the upside for second or third-round value.
Notable Number: 108.4
Minnesota’s defensive rating is the most notable number of the 2023-24 campaign. The Wolves finished with a below-average offensive rating. Still, the elite defense propelled Minnesota to the Western Conference Finals and the second-best record in a highly competitive Western Conference. Defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert brought home new hardware with his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award, while Anthony Edwards continued to grow on the defensive end of the court. Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker hounded opponents on defense, and despite lacking a strong fantasy skillset, both players were integral to Minnesota’s success a season ago.
Oklahoma City Thunder
2023-24 Record: 57-25
Pace: 100.8 (5th)
Offensive Rating: 118.3 (3rd)
Defensive Rating: 111.0 (4th)
One Potential Sleeper: Isaiah Hartenstein
Hartenstein should be on fantasy managers’ radars after a career-best year in New York and a new opportunity to join the starting five in Oklahoma City. Hartenstein should see expanded minutes for his new team, which could result in additional rebounds and defensive stats. He’s a prototypical big man who can rack up double-doubles, steals, and blocks while shooting at a high clip and rarely turning over the ball. If you load up at other positions early, Hartenstein is an excellent, late-round C pick who can be had in the eighth or ninth rounds of 2024-25 fantasy drafts.
One Potential Bust: Jalen Williams
He improved his production in Year 2 and finished 41st in per-game fantasy value. Another top-50 season is undoubtedly attainable, but how much higher can he climb? After being drafted as a value pick in two straight seasons, Wiliams’ ADP has finally caught up with his numbers, and you’re likely drafting him close to his ceiling if you spend a mid-fourth-round pick on him. Hashtag Basketball’s early ADP has Williams picking 41.8 on Yahoo, which could set him up to bust based on draft capital alone.
Notable Number: 53.1
Oklahoma City allowed the fifth-most rebounds to opponents last season, which was surprisingly an improvement after allowing the most rebounds per game across the previous two seasons. The Thunder made an apparent effort to address this deficiency on the glass by signing Isaiah Hartenstein to a lucrative, three-year, $87 million deal. Hartenstein will presumably take over as the team’s starting center, which will have a ripple effect across the roster. Chet Holmgren will move to PF, Jalen Williams will move to SF, and Lu Dort will come off the bench behind newcomer Alex Caruso, who will be the likely two guards next to Shail Gilgeous-Alexander in the backcourt.
Portland Trail Blazers
2023-24 Record: 21-61
Pace: 97.8 (21st)
Offensive Rating: 107.6 (29th)
Defensive Rating: 116.6 (23rd)
One Potential Sleeper: Donovan Clingan
Portland is loaded in the backcourt with young talent that presumably fits the bill for the team’s rebuild effort. Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams certainly aren’t old men, but it’s unclear if Portland’s front office views them as cornerstone pieces of the franchise. Williams is likely on the move or ready to spend significant time on the bench after the Blazers invested the No. 7 pick in this year’s draft on UConn standout big man Donovan Clingan.
A two-time NCAA champion with the Huskies, Clingan has a winning pedigree, and the big man can be an elite rebounder, shot-blocker, and efficient shooter at the next level, making him a worthwhile, late-round sleeper pick. At worst, he should see 20+ minutes behind Ayton, and at best, he could become the starting center if Ayton is moved or is forced to miss time.
One Potential Bust: Jerami Grant
Grant could be in line for a bounce-back season after notable declines in rebounds and blocks and an increase in turnovers in 2023-24. Those declines could also be the new norm for a player who has relied heavily on scoring and three-pointers to maintain top-100 fantasy value in recent seasons. The emergence of other reliable scoring options like Scoot Henderson and Deni Avdija, as well as a quality rebounder and shot-blocker in Donovan Clingan, means Grant could finish outside the 10th round for the second straight season.
Notable Number: 11.5
Portland made the 28th-most three-pointers per game in 2023-24. It’s surprising, considering the team boasts three-point specialists Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant, but the rest of the roster failed to convert consistently from beyond the arc. Scoot Henderson has clear room for improvement in his efficiency across the board, and Shaedon Sharpe is also due for positive regression in that department. New addition Deni Avdija shot a career-best 37.6% from downtown last season, so Portland’s 3-point makes should tick up during the 2024-25 campaign.
Utah Jazz
2023-24 Record: 31-51
Pace: 100.2 (10th)
Offensive Rating: 114.5 (18th)
Defensive Rating: 119.6 (30th)
One Potential Sleeper: Keyonte George
After a slow start to his rookie campaign, George got going and lit up opposing defenses. He tied the rookie record with nine three-pointers made in a single game and posted three 30-point games. George was a streaky and often inefficient shooter, but when he was feeling it, he was an excellent option on offense. He showed his playmaking chops as the season progressed, and George is an intriguing prospect heading into Year 2 with a presumed starting job in his hands.
One Potential Bust: Collin Sexton
It’s extremely tough to predict who from this team will be a bust due to the laughable early ADPs (per Hashtag Basketball) of guys like Sexton, Walker Kessler, and John Collins. Still, Sexton could burn fantasy managers after disappointing in his first season with the Jazz. Was last season’s bounce-back just a mirage, or are the good times here to stay? Was Sexton given additional playing time due to numerous injuries across the roster, or was he genuinely trending in the right direction? There are no colossal bust risks on this team, but Sexton could be the one who disappoints.
Notable Number: 14.8
Utah allowed the most threes per game, and the team allowed opponents to shoot a staggering 39.5% (highest in the Association) from beyond the arc. Utah needs perimeter defense, and the team should get a boost from No. 10 pick Cody Williams, who profiles as a quality perimeter defender thanks to his length, speed, and athleticism. At 6-foot-5, 210 pounds, Isaiah Collier has the size and strength to be a solid perimeter defender. Both rookie first-rounders could see meaningful minutes right out of the gate.