We’ve moved into December, the final segment of the fantasy football season. With most leagues in the last week of the fantasy regular season, it’s time to start breaking down those playoff schedules. Today we’ll tackle the first assignment: Rushing Strength of Schedule for the fantasy playoffs.
A bunch of caveats have to be established up front:
The rankings below are how the teams look for run-defense opponents in Weeks 15-17, inclusive. I’ve used some stat analysis (weighted to results in the last two months) and observation, with some special sauce mixed in.
Your use of this list will depend on your unique position. Maybe you don’t have to play in Week 15. Maybe you won’t make it to Week 17. Running these stats based on three cumulative matchups is a quick-and-dirty way to run the math, but it’s obviously not perfect.
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I did not factor in home/road splits or possible weather. And the strength of an offense’s run game is irrelevant to this exercise. Just because the Raiders have a good schedule and the Texans have a bad one doesn’t mean I want you to bench Joe Mixon for Alexander Mattison.
Next week we’ll look at the passing game Strength of Schedule for the fantasy playoffs.
Again, the opponents listed are for Weeks 15, 16 and 17. If your league uses Week 18, that research is on you.
The Fantasy Gods Love You
1. Raiders: (Falcons, Jaguars, @Saints): I’m curious to see if there’s any staying power to what Sincere McCormick showed last week. But take note that the Raiders rank dead last in percentage of running plays.
2. Titans: (Bengals, @Colts, @Jaguars): Tony Pollard has been solid all year despite playing through nagging injuries. The key is for the Titans to keep games competitive; on four different occasions, Pollard hasn’t made it to 10 carries.
3. Cardinals: (Patriots, @Panthers, @Rams): Given the age and workload of James Conner, Trey Benson is a worthwhile contingency stash.
4. Lions: (Bills, @Bears, @49ers): Time to start another long touchdown streak. The Lions ran unlucky in the Thanksgiving game, but their line is a steamroller and the backs complement each other well.
5. Eagles: (Steelers, @Commanders, Cowboys): The Eagles have the heaviest run rate, by far, in the league. If Philly allowed Saquon Barkley to score a few one-yard touchdowns (he doesn’t have any), he’d really be obliterating the league. Barkley’s last seven scores have all come from 19 yards and up, and his average touchdown comes from an absurd 28.5 yards away.
6. Colts: (@Broncos, Titans, @Giants): Unfortunately for Jonathan Taylor, a lot of the ground touchdowns will be steered to Anthony Richardson.
7. Jets: (@Jaguars, Rams, @Bills): With Breece Hall not 100%, make sure Braelon Allen isn’t floating around your waiver wire.
8. Falcons: (@Raiders, Giants, @Commanders): Kirk Cousins is the cause of all pain, but Bijan Robinson has lived up to advance billing.
9. Buccaneers: (@Chargers, @Cowboys, Panthers): I’m hesitant to use the phrase “league winner” but Bucky Irving gives off those vibes. And maybe things are tidying up in that backfield; Sean Tucker has just five snaps over the past three games.
We Can Work With This
10. Ravens: (@Giants, Steelers, @Texans): Derrick Henry’s career YPC rises as we move through the season. December is his money month.
11. Rams: (@49ers, @Jets, Cardinals): Blake Corum saw his biggest snap share last week; perhaps it was a silent (and brief) Kyren Williams punishment, but let’s keep an eye on it.
12. Packers: (@Seahawks, Saints, @Vikings): The Pack has the fourth-highest run rate in the league. Josh Jacobs has been overshadowed by Barkley and Henry, but he’s been a home run, too.
13. Vikings: (Bears, @Seahawks, Packers): Aaron Jones Sr. has four fumbles in three weeks, something that needs cleaning up. He also has the best yards per target of his career.
14. Chargers: (Buccaneers, Broncos, @Patriots): We know Gus Edwards is a low-ceiling ham-and-egger; at least rookie Kimani Vidal offers some passing chops and the upside of the unknown.
15. Panthers: (Cowboys, Cardinals, @Buccaneers): Rookie Jonathon Brooks did more in his second game, but I’m still willing to follow Chuba Hubbard into a burning building.
Not a Dream, But Not a Nightmare
16. Cowboys: (@Panthers, Buccaneers, @Eagles): Rico Dowdle looked the part on Thanksgiving and this rating is a little skewed by the Eagles looming. I’ll start him proactively in Weeks 15 and 16.
17. Jaguars: (Jets, @Raiders, Titans): Unfortunately it’s a platoon and the Jaguars have gotten poor quarterback play all year. I can’t start these backs proactively.
18. Giants: (Ravens, @Falcons, Colts): Brian Daboll might be coaching for his job, and that means Tyrone Tracy Jr. has to play, even with the occasional fumble.
19. Saints: (Commanders, @Packers, Raiders): The Saints are going nowhere and Alvin Kamara already has a worrisome odometer for 2024. Do they scale back a little down the stretch?
20. Broncos: (Colts, @Chargers, @Bengals): Sean Payton has talked up the hot hand all along, but you had to be a little curious about what Jaleel McLaughlin showed in the Week 13 finale.
21. Commanders: (@Saints, Eagles, Falcons): They’ll use multiple backs and rushing quarterback Jayden Daniels seems healthy again, so keep expectations in check.
22. Dolphins: (@Texans, 49ers, @Browns): De’Von Achane’s rushing efficiency has fallen significantly, but he’s bringing more volume and juice to the passing game.
23. Bengals: (@Titans, Browns, Broncos): Chase Brown was one of the best picks you could have made in August, and he’s doing it despite a spotty Cincinnati offensive line.
Lanes Could Be Hard to Find
24. Seahawks: (Packers, Vikings, @Bears): Kenneth Walker III is almost always dinged up; don’t let Zach Charbonnet sit unclaimed on your waiver wire.
25. Bills: (@Lions, Patriots, Jets): The underreported story here is how the Bills have built an excellent offensive line. The Niners did not bother Josh Allen at all in the glorious Sunday night snow game.
26. Chiefs: (@Browns, Texans, @Steelers): Isiah Pacheco looked healthy in Week 13 and is ready to shove Kareem Hunt out of the way.
27. Patriots: (@Cardinals, @Bills, Chargers): Rhamondre Stevenson had been in a rut, but his Week 13 efficiency was his best showing since Week 5. To be fair, he’s working behind the worst offensive line according to PFF’s grading.
28. Bears: (@Vikings, Lions, Seahawks): At least new play-caller (and head coach) Thomas Brown seems to know what he’s doing; former OC Shane Waldron was a poor fit from the start.
29. 49ers: (Rams, @Dolphins, Lions): Isaac Guerendo isn’t stepping into the same offense that we’ve seen in past seasons; Brock Purdy isn’t healthy and we can’t be sure about LT Trent Williams, either. But anyone starting for a Kyle Shanahan offense demands our attention. Hope your best FAB offer was enough to land Guerendo this week.
30. Texans: (Dolphins, @Chiefs, Ravens): Joe Mixon’s season is a near-miracle when you consider how poorly the Houston offensive line has played.
31. Browns: (Chiefs, @Bengals, Dolphins): Nick Chubb has looked sluggish in all six of his games. Long-term injury optimism is not your friend.
32. Steelers: (@Eagles, @Ravens, Chiefs): Take heart that Arthur Smith wants to run, run and run some more. The Steelers rank dead last in pass rate over expectation.