Sunday, December 22, 2024

Fantasy Football Pulse Check: Happy National Tight Ends Day!

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Happy National Tight Ends Day!

In true tight end fashion, the entire league hit us with a BOOM week to rival all weeks. Last week we had a total of eight touchdowns from tight ends. This week, we’ve been blessed with 16 TDs and 177 catches (an NFL record) on National Tight Ends Day. Since this is an official football holiday, I decided to give out mid-season awards to the collective group. While the tight ends were unusually extra this week, there are some critical takeaways and trends we can look to for rest-of-season value at the position and get a quick pulse check on who we can actually rely on moving forward.

Otton was nonexistent through the first two games of the season — and by nonexistent, I mean one reception on four targets. After that slow start, Otton settled into a solid role within the Buccaneers offense. Weeks 3 through 7, he averaged over seven targets per game, ranking as TE9 in average points per game during that span, with 8.6 fantasy points in half-PPR. Last week, he broke out with eight receptions on 10 targets for 100 yards after Mike Evans left early with an injury. This week, with both Evans and Chris Godwin out, Otton led the way as Baker Mayfield’s most reliable target, hauling in nine receptions on 10 targets for 81 yards and two touchdowns — a career-best for the third-year tight end. We expected Otton to step up given the injuries to the Bucs’ receiving corps, but he exceeded expectations, delivering an overall TE1 performance.

Pulse check: Just how much can we trust Otton moving forward?

This week was a favorable matchup against Atlanta, but upcoming matchups aren’t as friendly. However, regardless of the opposition, Mayfield has been dealing all season with only two games with fewer than two touchdown passes. There’s a lack of trust and experience in the Bucs’ receiving corps, and unless they make a trade for another receiver, Otton is likely to be Mayfield’s top target until Evans returns after their Week 11 bye.

I’m whispering ever so quietly here to avoid jinxing it … but since Week 5, Pitts has averaged 13.5 fantasy points per game in half-PPR, with his worst finish being TE13. Today was the Kyle Pitts day we’ve been waiting for: four receptions for 91 yards and two touchdowns. Pitts has emerged as the big-play threat we knew he could be. This was a favorable matchup, but Kirk Cousins spread the ball around fairly evenly and Pitts took advantage of his opportunities in impressive fashion.

Pulse check: Is Kyle Pitts SZN officially back on track?

Let’s be realistic here — two of Pitts’ past four games have been against Tampa Bay, whose pass defense is undeniably terrible. It’s no coincidence he finished as TE6 and TE2 in those matchups. Last week’s performance against Seattle, where Pitts had seven receptions for 65 yards and finished with 10 fantasy points (TE11), might be a more realistic expectation for him. That said, it’s fantastic to see he has this kind of ceiling after years of hoping for any sort of breakout. Cousins is maximizing the true potential of all of Atlanta’s previously destitute fantasy assets. While the schedule ahead isn’t fantastic, Pitts remains a mid-tier TE1, a “set it and (kind of) forget it” option.

After a rough start to the fantasy season where Andrews posted two straight weeks of zero points in Weeks 3 and 4, fantasy managers were ready to drop him and find any other option. The Ravens offense had been inconsistent in targeting tight ends and leaned heavily on blocking for Derrick Henry, who’s been dominant. As the Ravens have made adjustments, Andrews has found a more consistent role.

Pulse check: What’s real and what’s a mirage with Andrews’ recent surge?

Since those back-to-back zeroes, Andrews’ snap counts remain low at around 50% with his targets maxing out at five. However, he’s been efficient and the touchdowns are flowing. With Lamar Jackson playing at an MVP level, the Ravens have ample scoring opportunities, which gives all assets fantasy upside. While touchdown reliance is risky, it’s similar to how Sam LaPorta thrived in 2023, relying on touchdowns when yardage was minimal. We do need to proceed with caution, though. Without a touchdown, Andrews won’t put up TE1 numbers. Still, with his scoring potential, he’s returned to a start-worthy option.

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Speaking of touchdown-dependent tight ends, Kraft has caught five touchdowns in the last five weeks since solidifying his role as TE1 in Green Bay. His receptions are modest — only 24 this season — but with five touchdowns, he’s scoring on 20% of his catches. In a Packers offense where Jordan Love spreads the ball around, you want touchdown equity, and that’s what Kraft offers.

Pulse check: Can Kraft remain a TE1 ROS?

I feel confident in Kraft as a mid-tier TE1, but we do have one issue: Love injured his groin this week. We don’t yet know the severity, but if Love is out and Malik Willis steps in, expect a shift in Green Bay’s offense. Matt LaFleur managed the Packers offense efficiently with Love out previously this season, focusing on the ground game and reducing passing volume. Kraft could still be an option if Love misses time, but we should proceed with caution, especially with tight ends becoming a bit more dependable lately.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

Coming into this season, I was worried for David Njoku. He’s a dynamic player, but being tied to Deshaun Watson presented challenges. With Watson out for the season and Jameis Winston now at QB, Njoku’s season feels safe and reliable. Though he’s not the first read in this offense — Cedric Tillman has stepped up after Amari Cooper’s trade and Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy are contributing — Winston’s 41 attempts this week provide more opportunity for all pass catchers. If you give Njoku volume, he will thrive. Njoku now has legitimate TE1 upside.

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

2024 has been challenging for Sam LaPorta’s managers. Before this week, he’d only hit double-digit fantasy points once. The lack of production has been puzzling, especially with the Lions facing pass-friendly defenses early on. LaPorta’s touchdown dependency presents a major issue with Jameson Williams emerging as the Lions’ WR2. This week, Williams served the first of his two-game suspension and LaPorta had his best performance, catching all six of his targets for 48 yards and a touchdown. LaPorta should be a reliable TE1 next week, but when Williams returns, LaPorta becomes a risky play with a tough playoff schedule. If you’re in a position to trade, now might be a good time to shop him around.

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars

Technically, Engram was outplayed by Brenton Strange (tight ends day, am I right?), but it was still a solid day for him with four receptions on five targets for 36 yards and a touchdown. Engram’s performance wasn’t flashy, but since returning from the four-game absence and a rough opening game with just one reception for five yards, he’s seen 19 targets over the past three games. He remains a top target in the Jaguars offense, which will need to keep up the high volume given their upcoming matchups against high-powered offenses that will absolutely obliterate their defense.

Not much needs to be said about Trey McBride’s latest performance. This was his best game of the season, with nine receptions on 11 targets for 124 yards. McBride has been one of the most reliable tight ends in the league, providing consistent volume as Kyler Murray’s second option. He’s seen no fewer than six targets per game, and while he doesn’t have significant touchdown equity (only three last season, none this season), his high volume is dependable.

There’s no true pulse check here, but Gesicki stands out as a player whose situational advantage could persist. Gesicki has consistently shown up big in games when Tee Higgins is out. With Higgins dealing with a leg injury, Gesicki had seven receptions on eight targets for 73 yards. This mirrors a similar performance back in Week 2 with Higgins sidelined. Gesick is less of a tight end and more of a big receiver so plugging him in with another big receiver like Higgins out is an easy transition. In Week 9, Cincinnati faces a favorable matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, and if Higgins is out, Gesicki is a solid streaming option.

This article is primarily written for the early games but it’s worth noting Dalton Kincaid, Adam Trautman, Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers and Zach Ertz all kept the good vibes going in the afternoon slate, and then George Kittle put an exclamation mark on the day with a monster game (6-128-1, good for 21.8 fantasy points).

The big takeaway from this group is the continued surge in volume for Kelce. DeAndre Hopkins wasn’t much of a factor in his first game with the Chiefs — although it will be interesting to see the snap count and if his presence helped open up volume for a strong day for Xavier Worthy. Kelce remained the clear first-look for Mahomes with 10 receptions on 12 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown.

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