What a week for late-round running backs! Five backs drafted with ADPs of 90 or later finished in the top 10 on the early slate, and they were some of my personal favorites heading into the week:
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Tony Pollard (90.8 ADP)
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Chase Brown (113.8)
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J.K. Dobbins (130)
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Rico Dowdle (128.3)
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Chuba Hubbard (129.9)
This production isn’t an anomaly. These backs have continued to ascend as the season has progressed and proven their worth as high-upside fantasy assets. However, the question remains: just how much can we trust these backs moving forward?
Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans
Earlier this week, I predicted a strong performance from Tony Pollard of 20 carries for over 100 yards, plus solid receiving work and a touchdown to give him a top-10 finish. While he didn’t quite hit that mark due to the lack of a touchdown, he still had an excellent day with 28 carries for 128 yards and three receptions for 26 yards. He’ll likely finish as a borderline RB1 depending on the outcome of the primetime games.
Heading into the season, I had concerns about Pollard after his disappointing 2023 season and thought Tyjae Spears could take over the backfield. Spears has dealt with injuries and Pollard has dominated in touches with a strong statistical year, despite the Titans’ offensive struggles. Coming into this week, Pollard was RB22 in average points per game in half-PPR, which is respectable considering his limited touchdown opportunities. His production has been steady, maintaining a decent floor.
Pulse check: Is Pollard’s production sustainable in the Titans’ offense ROS?
The Titans offense feels different with Mason Rudolph at the helm. He’s not perfect, but he offers more stability. In better matchups, Pollard has a low-end RB1 ceiling, and in tougher matchups, he’s a flex option. The next couple of weeks are a bit shaky but the real key with Pollard is his playoff schedule. Week 13 through the fantasy championships in Week 17, Pollard faces Washington, Jacksonville (twice), Cincinnati and Indianapolis.
Pollard is a solid trade candidate at a reasonable value and you can reap the benefits in the fantasy playoffs. His job is secure, his workload is strong and his floor is solid.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
With Zack Moss out, Brown was upgraded from committee to lead back and was the only running back to touch the ball in Week 9 for the Bengals. Brown had 27 carries for 120 yards and caught all five of his targets for 37 yards and a touchdown. He took full advantage of a struggling Raiders defense and it was great to see him handle such a hefty workload — and a clear sign of the confidence the Bengals’ coaching staff has in him.
I discussed Brown in my “make or break” column and highlighted his potential to thrive this week, given the matchup. When injuries happen within committees, we often see another back step up to maintain the offensive structure, rather than a full lead-back takeover. We saw this today in the Commanders’ backfield where Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols all shared the load Brian Robinson Jr. out.
Brown, however, was a clear three-down back.
Brown was one of my favorite draft picks this season because, while Moss was expected to start the season as the lead back, I had full confidence that Brown was simply the better back and would eventually take over. As the season progressed, Brown steadily cut into Moss’ workload, but it was clear the Bengals had no intention of eliminating Moss from the committee. Both backs had decent floors, but their upside was capped due to volume limitations.
Pulse check: What happens when Zack Moss is back?
There are a couple of things working against Chase Brown. Advanced metrics have favored Brown for most of the season and despite his clear upper hand, the Bengals haven’t aggressively shifted the workload in his favor. It’s tough to believe they’ll phase out Moss entirely. While I think Brown may have earned slight favoritism, Moss’ presence will be enough to cap Brown’s true ceiling. This means Brown will have RB1 upside in excellent matchups but will perform more like a low-end RB2 in tougher matchups.
The Bengals’ upcoming schedule includes difficult run defenses, with Baltimore in Week 10, followed by the L.A. Chargers and then a bye week. I believe in Brown’s talent, but I’m not sure if the Bengals believe in him enough to make him the clear lead back. Talent usually wins out, but the Bengals’ organization is prone to questionable practices.
If Moss’ injury remains an issue, it’s Brown to the moon. If Moss makes a quick return, we’re back to more of the same.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers
For a lesser-known running back in one of the league’s worst offenses, there’s been surprising debate among fantasy managers regarding Chuba Hubbard. Heading into the season, we expected Hubbard to be a short-term stand-in before Jonathon Brooks returned from the PUP list.
Instead, we’re heading into Week 10, and Brooks has yet to see action.
Hubbard has been excellent as the Panthers’ lead back. Outside of a poor Week 1 performance, Hubbard hasn’t finished lower than RB33 and has three (and potentially four depending on Week 9’s primetime games) finishes inside the top 10. He’s typically boasted a double-digit floor with a strong ceiling and has been one of the most reliable backs in the league.
Brooks is likely to be active in Week 10, but it’s hard to imagine the Panthers, who aren’t competing, pushing Brooks into a heavy workload right away. Hubbard has been effective, and there’s no reason for the Panthers to rush Brooks back, especially with a bye in Week 11. I expect Brooks to be used minimally in Week 10, with Hubbard remaining the lead back for one more week.
Pulse check: What happens after the bye week?
After the bye, Brooks could see an increased workload, but Hubbard should retain flex value, particularly during the playoff stretch with matchups against Dallas, Arizona and Tampa Bay. The Panthers offense doesn’t have enough juice to support two productive backs, so something has to give here, but that “give” could easily fall on Brooks.
The Panthers have no incentive to give a hefty workload to Brooks and the hope is that they keep minimal usage of Brooks with Hubbard remaining the lead back. His ceiling would be lowered but he’d remain start-worthy.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys
We’ve talked about backs in disappointing offenses like Tennessee and Carolina, but Dallas is on a different level. They’ve been vastly underperforming compared to expectations and are in an absolute tailspin that could get worse with Dak Prescott dealing with a hamstring injury and CeeDee Lamb nursing a shoulder injury.
Despite Dallas’ Week 9 struggles, Rico Dowdle had a strong fantasy performance. His volume was low, but he was incredibly productive, taking advantage of the matchup with Atlanta: 75 yards on 12 carries, plus five receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown.
Pulse check: Was the Week 9 performance a blip or should we expect RB1 production ROS?
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Dowdle in a full workload; about a month. Back in Week 5, Dowdle had a breakout performance with 20 carries for 87 yards and a receiving touchdown, but he got injured the following week. Dallas had a bye in Week 7, and in Week 8, Dowdle was a late scratch due to illness. With Ezekiel Elliott inactive in Week 9 for disciplinary reasons, Dowdle had no competition and thrived despite the offense’s struggles.
He’s been by far the best back in Dallas, and his job is very secure. After a tough matchup with Philadelphia next week, the competition lightens up, particularly through Week 16, when Dowdle faces Cincinnati, Carolina and Tampa Bay. Dowdle should maintain the lead-back role and has RB1 upside, even with the looming team injuries.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
I saved Dobbins for last because he truly is the Cinderella story of the year.
Everyone’s favorite comeback player is currently Kirk Cousins, but don’t count out Dobbins! He’s dominated the Chargers’ backfield from the start and hasn’t let up. Week 9 saw one of his best performances of the season with 14 carries for 85 yards and two touchdowns, plus two receptions for 20 yards. Heading into Week 9, Dobbins was RB17 in average points per game in half-PPR, averaging 13.7 fantasy points per game.
Pulse check: Will the clock strike midnight on our Cinderella story?
At this point, the only thing working against Dobbins is his own injury history. He hasn’t played more than eight games since his rookie season in 2020 so it feels like we’re at a critical time and holding our breath with every hit. There’s no threat to his workload and the Chargers offense continues to improve as their young receivers develop. That improvement will increase touchdown opportunities, leading to more games like his Week 9 production.
The road ahead for Dobbins is a bit tough. While there are favorable matchups against Atlanta and Tampa Bay, there are also difficult run defenses in Baltimore, Kansas City and Denver. Despite the potential defensive traps, Dobbins remains a strong three-down back with true RB1 upside — health permitting of course.