The Shuffle Up series rolls along. Today we’ll hit the tight ends. This position was a fantasy wasteland for the early weeks, but production spiked in Week 8 (ah, the Hallmark holidays) and things have since reverted back to normal.
I’d never want to eliminate the tight end position from fantasy leagues. It’s just another opportunity for us to hopefully make better choices than our opponents.
The salaries are unscientific and meant to illustrate where I see pockets of value. Everything to this point has been an audition; I’m ranking and tiering them as if I were drafting from fresh right now. Remember the golden rule — no player gains or loses extra value because you choose to roster them.
The Big Tickets
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$34 George Kittle
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$30 Travis Kelce
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$28 Brock Bowers
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$26 Trey McBride
The 49ers are just 28th in red-zone percentage (touchdowns per trip), but Kittle is part of the answer there. He’s seen 13 red-zone targets and he’s caught 12 of them, good for six touchdowns. And Kittle is still as dynamic a downfield threat as any tight end, posting a position-best eight catches over 20 yards. He’s very close to clinching a Hall of Fame spot when he eventually retires.
It’s a shame Bowers doesn’t have a plus quarterback to push him to the top of the position. He’s collected the most YAC among tight ends but still his YPC is an ordinary 10.2, a statement more about his support cast than Bowers as a player. The Raiders just fired their play-caller, but with the limited quarterback talent here, Bowers can’t completely spread his wings.
McBride is doing just fine with volume but with only three touchdowns (and none this year) against 41 career games and 33 starts, we have to see him as a capped-upside player. Kyler Murray hasn’t been consistent this year, and the Cardinals rank just 26th in pass rate over expectation.
Legitimate Building Blocks
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$23 Cade Otton
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$22 Evan Engram
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$22 David Njoku
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$21 Kyle Pitts
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$21 Tucker Kraft
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$16 Sam LaPorta
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$15 Mark Andrews
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$13 Jake Ferguson
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$11 Dalton Kincaid
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$10 Taysom Hill
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$10 T.J. Hockenson
The term “League Winner” is probably overused in fantasy circles, but at least call Otton a league-tilter. He’s been the TE5, TE1 and TE2 the last three weeks, coinciding with the Mike Evans and Chris Godwin injuries. He has five targets inside the five-yard line, tops among tight ends. He has had a 24.6% market share the last two weeks, only trailing Travis Kelce (a whopping 29.4%) over that period. Baker Mayfield has struggled to find secondary receivers he can trust, but Otton’s role isn’t going away.
Kraft will always have to battle for targets against a loaded Green Bay receiver room, but he’s doing two exciting things to keep his fantasy value afloat. First is the red-zone equity, where Kraft already has nine targets, four catches and four touchdowns (only Kittle has more). But the Packers also know how to scheme up Kraft in space; he’s fourth in YPC at the poison, and his YAC per catch is best among tight ends. Matt LaFleur knows how to put his players in position to excel.
Hill has absolutely no weekly floor but he is probably the best goal-line back in New Orleans and this is a team desperate for offensive help after Alvin Kamara. A healthy Hill is an interesting tight-end sleeper in any week.
Some Plausible Upside
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$8 Dallas Goedert
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$8 Hunter Henry
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$8 Cole Kmet
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$7 Mike Gesicki
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$6 Zach Ertz
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$6 Pat Freiermuth
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$5 Jonnu Smith
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$5 Dalton Schultz
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$4 Isaiah Likely
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$3. Tyler Conklin
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$3 Theo Johnson
Johnson has flashed some as a rookie and is coming off his best yardage game of the year, but he’s also left some plays on the table. He has a position-high four drops on the year.
Say this for Conklin, the Jets have tried to get him involved. He’s run 265 routes, tops at the position. But Conklin isn’t a downfield mover (just 9.2 YPC) nor an intermediate route-runner (5.24 average depth of target). He was always working with a capped range, and now with Davante Adams in town, we can’t count on goal-line equity, either.
Likely is merely a stash-and-hope player, someone who could spike if Andrews gets hurt but won’t have standalone value without that. The acquisition of Diontae Johnson also spreads the Baltimore target tree even more widely.
Bargain Bin
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$2 Juwan Johnson
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$2 Ja’Tavion Sanders
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$1 Noah Fant
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$1 Colby Parkinson
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$1 Will Dissly
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$1 Chig Okonkwo
Data from TruMedia, Fantasy Points and Pro Football Reference was used in this article.