Running backs remain king in fantasy football. While it feels like there are more elite quarterbacks and wide receivers than ever before, the amount of consistent, dependable running backs is dwindling. This makes it all the more important to find value at running back in fantasy football. In order to help you do that, I will be taking a look at a few backfields each week that stick out based on recent trends or new information we learned.
This is especially crucial after Week 1, as nailing a waiver wire add would give you a high-value player for the rest of the season. Without further ado, let’s get into some of the key backfield patterns I noticed after the first week of the NFL season.
De’Von Achane managers can finally breathe a sigh of relief. After an offseason full of speculation as to how the Dolphins would split up the backfield touches, it looks like Achane is indeed the team’s 1A. Achane led the Dolphins with 10 carries in their win against the Jaguars, while Raheem Mostert had six and Jeff Wilson had five.
Notably, Achane was also used heavily in the passing game, something we didn’t see much of last year. Achane was second behind only Tyreek Hill on the team in targets with seven and had 76 yards through the air. Achane played 54% of snaps to Mostert’s 43% and received the team’s lone carry within the five-yard line which he punched in for a score.
Mostert will obviously still be a factor in the offense, but Achane’s receiving work and goal-line usage lead me to believe he can live up to his lofty preseason ADP. On the other hand, I would keep Mostert on your bench unless we see a drastic shift in the Dolphins’ volume distribution.
Unfortunately, fantasy managers are already having to deal with injury news to both Achane (ankle) and Mostert (chest). Mostert has already been ruled out for Thursday Night Football, while Achane is being labeled a game-time decision.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Is it time to sound the panic button for Travis Etienne? Despite looking like the clear bell-cow running back for the entire season last year, Etienne saw the same exact number of carries (12) as second-year back Tank Bigsby in Week 1.
Bigsby was far more efficient with his workload, running for 73 yards compared to Etienne’s 44. Etienne was the primary option in the red-zone situations, running in a one-yard touchdown and fumbling another chance at the goal line. Considering the differences in efficiencies between Etienne and Bigbsy, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Jaguars continue to work Bigsby in more. This could spell trouble for Etienne, who has been somewhat volume-dependent for his prior fantasy success.
Etienne will be a fantasy starter as long as he continues to get the goal-line work, but Bigsby should be a high-priority waiver add this week. I’ll be keeping a close look at how the Jaguars continue to use Etienne and Bigsby in the coming weeks so you can properly manage your expectations for the two of them.
The Jaylen Warren hype train looks like it is coming to a screeching halt. Warren had high expectations entering 2024 after an effective sophomore season, but Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith apparently had other plans. Najee Harris remained the featured running back for the Steelers offense in Week 1, playing 56% of snaps to Warren’s 31% (Cordarrelle Patterson played 13% of snaps at running back as well). Harris had a whopping 20 carries, compared to four for Patterson and just two for Warren.
I’m curious to see if the volume split up stays the same if Russell Wilson is under center instead of Justin Fields, as Wilson might be a bit more pass-heavy which would play to Warren’s strengths. Generally, though, the Steelers looked anemic on offense, and I am not at all confident that they can support multiple fantasy-relevant running backs. I would bench Warren for the time being and only start Harris if I had no other decent options.
The Chargers completely revamped their running game during the off-season, bringing in Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins from Baltimore to replace Austin Ekeler. In Week 1, the difference between Edwards and Dobbins was about as stark as you can get.
Edwards actually out-carried Dobbins, turning 11 opportunities into a measly 26 yards. Dobbins, meanwhile, was electric with his touches — he rumbled for 135 yards on 10 carries and currently leads the NFL in yards after contact per attempt and breakaway run percentage. Dobbins’ stats are padded by a 61-yard burst, but even removing that explosive play, Dobbins was far more efficient than Edwards.
The Chargers offense under John Harbaugh and Greg Roman looks to be a force of nature on the ground, which means Dobbins could become a legitimate fantasy starter in the coming weeks. He was on the field more than Edwards in Week 1 (58% of snaps vs. 42%), and no other Chargers running back played on offense. If the Chargers ride with the hot hand, I would feel confident in treating Dobbins as a weekly top-24 option.
Unlike De’Von Achane, fantasy managers who were hopeful that Jahmyr Gibbs would become the clear lead running back in the Lions offense will have to continue waiting. This backfield remains an almost perfectly even split between Gibbs and David Montgomery, with Gibbs playing 51% of snaps to Montgomery’s 49% on Sunday night. Gibbs had six fewer carries but five more targets than Montgomery, indicating the lightning-and-thunder dynamic of the duo. Fittingly, both Gibbs and Montgomery rushed in one-yard scores.
Moving forward, I would be comfortable starting both of the two running backs in fantasy. The Lions continue to look like one of the five best offenses in the NFL and are perhaps second to none on the ground. There was no real situational split up between Gibbs and Montgomery, and they generally just alternated series. This means that both of them should be able to deliver top-24 fantasy performances on a weekly basis, with Gibbs having a slightly higher floor because of his work through the air. While Gibbs may struggle to return on his first-round ADP, the two of them should be extremely fantasy-relevant for the entire season as they were last year.