Thursday, November 21, 2024

Fantasy Football: Rookie RBs that matter for 2024 and beyond

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Rookie running backs are some of the hardest players to evaluate in fantasy football. This is especially the case in 2024, as zero running backs were taken in the first round of the NFL draft. But, just because a player enters the season buried on the depth chart, that doesn’t mean they can’t offer plenty of fantasy value — just look at De’Von Achane last year.

In this article, I’ll be taking a look at some rookie running backs who could potentially become fantasy-relevant this year, even if they aren’t starting the season as their team’s RB1.

Brooks was the first running back off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft, going 46th overall to the Carolina Panthers. He will miss at least the first four weeks of the season after being placed on the PUP list to start the season, as he is still recovering from the torn ACL he suffered in November 2023. However, I could envision him becoming a valuable fantasy asset for the back half of the season. Brooks will likely split touches with Chuba Hubbard upon return, but I’m willing to bet on talent winning out.

Brooks was electric in the open field in college, ranking top 15 in the nation in missed tackles last year at Texas. He is also a capable pass-catcher, hauling in 25 catches. Hubbard, on the other hand, is as average as it gets at running back. He ranked outside the top 30 in yards after contact per carry and breakaway run percentage last year, finishing as the RB26 despite ranking 11th among running backs in touches.

Generally speaking, I think the Panthers offense has sleeper potential across the board. They made improvements to their offensive line and receiving corps, and brought in quarterback whisperer Dave Canales as head coach. If Bryce Young can put things together in his sophomore year with this improved supporting cast, the Panthers could be a better scoring offense than we expect. This gives Brooks solid upside, assuming he is able to win the starting job once he debuts. I wouldn’t mind taking Brooks if he falls a little bit past his current ADP in the 10th round, especially if you can stash him in your IR spot to start the season.

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Benson will start the year as the backup to James Conner in Arizona after being taken in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Unlike other aging running backs, Conner proved last year that he still has plenty of gas left in the tank, meaning he will command the lion’s share of volume to start the year.

Conner ranked top three in both yards after contact per carry and breakaway run percentage and has been a top-24 fantasy running back by PPG in five of the last six seasons. With that being said, Conner has also been known to get banged up. He has missed four games in each of the last two years due to injury, meaning Benson could hold some value as the “next man up”.

Truth be told, I’m not the biggest fan of Benson this year because I think the Cardinals would rotate in Emari Demercado and Michael Carter in addition to Benson if Conner were to go down. It is worth keeping an eye on the Cardinals’ backfield rotation the first few weeks of the season to see how the No. 2 running battle shakes out, but I think Benson will be far more valuable in 2025 once Conner becomes a free agent.

It was a bit of a surprise when the Rams took Corum in the third round of the draft after striking gold with Kyren Williams last year. Their investment in Corum indicates that they are concerned about Williams’ injury risk, which makes sense as he has missed a combined twelve games in his first two seasons.

Williams saw some absurd snap counts last year — he had five different games playing over 90% of the Rams’ offensive snaps. With news that Williams will serve as the Rams’ punt returner this season, it looks like the Rams are shifting away from giving Williams a bell-cow workload, meaning Corum could get a solid amount of touches from Week 1 on. I could also see Corum seeing goal-line and short-yardage work after scoring 28 touchdowns in his last year at Michigan.

The Rams have almost no running back depth behind Williams and Corum, making Corum one of the premier backups in drafts this year. I would definitely consider taking him in the 10th or 11th round of my drafts as insurance for Williams.

Irving is essentially free in fantasy drafts right now but I think he could be a legitimate league winner. The Buccaneers announced that veteran Chase Edmonds was placed on season-ending IR, leaving Irving as the No. 2 back in the Tampa Bay backfield behind Rachaad White.

While White was effective in fantasy last season, he did so almost solely because of high volume. White actually had the same number of carries as Christian McCaffrey last year (272), but ran for 469 fewer yards. He ranked outside the top 50 in pretty much every running back advanced stat you could name and was no doubt one of the least efficient players in football.

Irving has already flashed in limited preseason work and was incredibly efficient in college — at Oregon, he ran for over six yards a carry in both of his final two years, which is quite the contrast from White’s 3.6 mark last season. Irving will probably start the season as a rotational back behind White, but I could easily see him win the starting role if he proves his superior efficiency to begin the year.

Given that Irving comes with essentially no risk to your fantasy team at his current draft price, he is a great lottery ticket who has several different paths to becoming a contributor to your fantasy team.

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