Give me directions, and then let me work.
That used to be my mantra when I was younger. (I’d like to think) I’m a pretty smart guy. I can execute. But that perspective changed as I got older.
Try having a family and think one set of instructions is sufficient. I’ve had to take graduate-level courses to learn how to operate our washing machine to my wife’s standards.
Anyway, Week 1 was our first set of blueprints.
The problem is some of us took the results as gospel. Marvin Harrison Jr. was too slow to be a good WR. Sam Darnold couldn’t possibly be this good (although, if you checked out last week’s piece, I came away impressed).
Week 2 emphasized the idea that every week is an opportunity to learn. And once again, I’ve got five storylines that taught me something new to take into Week 3.
‘Oh When The Saints Go Marching In’
The joke I heard throughout the offseason about the Saints started something like, “An aging, disgruntled RB, a weak offensive line and Derek Carr walk into a bar …”. But I don’t think the punchline was sitting atop the NFC South with a +65 point differential (first in the league).
To be fair, years of watching a stagnant offense lowered our expectations. The scheme offered no easy buttons. And then, Klint Kubiak came to the Big Easy.
When I say “easy buttons,” think of a basic passing play with two WRs on the field and a QB dropping straight back to throw. In this scenario, the signal caller won’t get any hints of the defense’s intentions, nor is there an option to make them second-guess what the offense is doing. Essentially, the play-caller is asking his squad to “out-talent” the opposition. But it doesn’t have to be that difficult.
Schemers can pull on levers like play-action and pre-snap motion to get information while forcing defenders to adjust in an instant. Others put the onus on their players. After two weeks, Kubiak is clearly in the former category.
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Play-Action Rate: 32nd (2023 rank), 2nd (2024 rank)
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Pre-Snap Motion Rate: 30th, 8th
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Designed Roll-Out Rate: 24th, 1st
The former 49ers’ and Vikings’ coordinator has used every tool at his disposal to enhance the offense. Play action and designed roll-outs integrated with the speed of Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed have been a deadly combo. Carr has seen eight pressures through two weeks. Twenty-three of his colleagues saw that many or more this past week alone. But, outside of the passing game, the biggest surprise has been the resurgence of the Saints’ RB1.
Kubiak has stayed true to his Shanahan roots with the use of outside zone (50.7% usage rate, fourth highest) in the running game. However, it’s not just the marriage of an elusive runner like Kamara and efficient rushing concepts. His blockers up front make it happen.
Even on an inside zone run as shown in the post above, the Saints’ line pushes the right side of Dallas’ defensive front a full yard before Kamara hits someone in a white jersey. With an offensive line averaging 1.28 adjusted yards before contact (sixth most), Kamara’s sitting at career-highs in rushing success rate and EPA per rush despite seeing eight or more defenders in the box at the sixth-highest rate among primary rushers.
Defenses know he’s coming — and still can’t stop him.
I’d advise the opposition to pressure Carr and make him “curl into a ball” as he has in years past, but his 96.5 PFF grade when under duress says otherwise. Dallas would agree.
Carr isn’t the same Carr. And this isn’t the same offense. With uptempo matchups ahead, Carr and Kamara (Carr-mara?) have the surrounding talent and scheme to remain fantasy-relevant throughout the 2024 season.
The Red Rifle rides again
I thought Dave Canales was brought in to try and “fix” Bryce Young. But after what appears to be a regression in Young’s mechanics, the switch to Andy Dalton makes sense.
But, of course, the question is: can he do better?
Let’s first look at his (and, formerly, Bryce’s) situation. Per TruMedia, the Panthers’ offensive line was allowing the seventh-lowest pressure rate through two weeks. Young’s average pocket time (number of seconds from snap to the pocket collapsing) was just below the league average at 2.1 seconds. Only one starter on the line has a PFF Pass Blocking Grade below 70.0.
Admittedly, defensive schemers did subject Young to the eighth-highest blitz rate. However, the second-year passer saw a clean pocket on 71.6% of his dropbacks. With 13 years under his belt, Dalton can operate under these conditions. And his pass-catchers (or at least, his primary receiver) will value Dalton’s experience.
Diontae Johnson’s route-running skills moved with him to Charlotte. At an average of 2.6 yards of separation, the former Steeler finds himself sandwiched between DeVonta Smith and Chris Olave in terms of creating windows for their QB. With Adam Thielen still navigating the interior (69.1% slot rate), he’s slightly ahead of Johnson at 3.3 yards. Both mesh with what Dalton can do under center.
Last week, the Ravens used Zay Flowers on multiple intermediate crossing routes to keep their offense moving. Both Johnson’s and Thielen’s route trees are diverse enough to replicate this attack.
We shouldn’t be looking to Dalton as a spot starter in Week 3. But he can lift the floor for his receivers in an advantageous matchup.
Mazda Marv, Maserati Marv — doesn’t matter. The kid can play
Of all the overreactions from Week 1, Marvin Harrison Jr.’s season-opening dud produced the weirdest. Instead of digging into how OC Drew Petzing deployed the former Buckeye, Harrison’s in-game speed became the focus.
Simply put, we lost the plot, as the kids say.
On the one hand, I understand the long-term concern for Harrison Jr. A lack of game-breaking speed will limit his ability to create after the catch. But, on the flip side, there are other ways he can win.
At Ohio State, the Cardinals’ WR1 notched aDOTs of 14.3 and 13.1 to close out his collegiate career. He never crossed 20.0% of the snaps from the slot. So, averaging over 10 yards per target (second on the team) and running a route from the interior on 18.5% of his routes aligns with his skillset. However, his QB’s situation didn’t.
The Bills, despite their defensive injuries entering the season, figured out how to put the Cardinals’ offensive line in a bind. L.A. didn’t have the same skillset. Plus, with a bump in Arizona’s pre-snap motion and RPO rate on Sunday, Kyler Murray could push the ball downfield instead of the dink-and-dunk offense we saw in Week 1.
Of course, continued development from Harrison Jr. will be key. Five of his 11 targets have come on Go routes. Just two have come across the middle of the field. A diverse route tree would give Marv and Kyler more ways to connect. But if Petzing and Murray can continue to scheme up the protection to keep their aerial attack looking downfield, Harrison’s speed won’t matter.
Bad News Bears
I can’t fault a team for following a (generally) +EV process. Chicago added pieces to its offensive line, traded for Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze. Along with bringing in OC Shane Waldron, the Bears did all they could to build around their franchise QB, Caleb Williams.
But then, reality hit.
Through two weeks, the 2024 1.01 is yet to throw one TD. Williams’ -0.28 EPA ranks just ahead of (the recently benched) Bryce Young. However, it’s not all on the former Trojan. Let’s start with the scheme.
I highlighted how much progressive playcalling can help a passer in the Saints section above. Play-action and pre-snap motion are just two of many dials an OC can turn to simplify the chaos. If you can believe that sitting at or near the top of the league in usage rates for those concepts is a boon for a QB, then Chicago needs to make some adjustments to its passing game.
Honestly, we should’ve seen this coming. Jaxon Smith-Njigba tried to tell us. Shane Waldron ran a similarly static offense last year in Seattle. But, no matter. Williams demonstrated his quick processing skills at USC. On attempts thrown in under 2.5 seconds, Chicago’s new triggerman was 12th in adjusted completion percentage. However, his coordinator isn’t the only problem.
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Coleman Shelton (Center): 55.6 (PFF Pass Blocking Grade), 22nd (Rank Amongst All Starters)
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Tevin Jenkins (Left Guard): 48.7, 54th
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Ryan Bates (Right Guard): 65.7, 35th
Go back and watch the hilarious sack in the post above and note how quickly Shelton gets beat (sorry, Bears fans). The pressure forces Williams into hero mode. But he’s not playing against Arizona State this time. The Bears’ QB is one of three passers with top-12 rates in blitz and pressure rate. Teams know they can get to him. Per Pro Football Reference, his average time from the snap to the pocket collapsing is 0.9 seconds.
I don’t think I can even blink that fast.
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Luckily, Chicago may be through the worst of their early-season schedule. They face the Colts (with injuries to their defense), Rams, Panthers and Jaguars before heading into their Week 7 bye.
For fantasy managers who just lost Isiah Pacheco, a trade for D’Andre Swift’s 57.1% rushing share (and three looks per game) may have some appeal. And outside of those with DJ Moore, buying low on Keenan Allen or Rome Odunze may pay off with the Commanders and Cardinals on tap coming out of the bye.
Chicago does need to make some changes to its offensive approach, but at least the matchups give Williams more runway to learn the position at the NFL level.
Michael Pittman Jr.’s WR22 ADP looked reasonable after notching personal bests in every receiving metric except for TDs in 2023. However, he’s the WR89 right now. And, after two weeks, everyone likely has buyer’s remorse.
To be clear, “everyone” is me in this scenario.
But if you also have him, basic analysis would give you (us) some hope. The fifth-year wideout leads the Colts’ pass-catchers with 15 targets. Let’s take the eval a bit further. Of the 37 WRs with 20.0% or more of their team’s looks, Pittman’s 27.8% targets per route run (TPRR) ranks 12th. In other words, he’s running routes and earning attempts at a high rate. Great!
But when you add more context to the picture, his situation looks all the more bleak.
Pittman is an intermediate route technician. His aDOT hasn’t exceeded 11 yards since coming into the league. Slants, hitches and curls comprise most of his route tree. A WR of this archetype would mesh with a standard dropback passer. Think Michael Thomas and Drew Brees (or Pittman and Gardner Minshew!).
Unfortunately, Anthony Richardson doesn’t fit that mold.
Before you get mad, yes, I realize the above is Richardson’s 2023 chart. But two starts in 2024 haven’t changed anything:
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Short Throws (LOS – 10 air yards): 24th (EPA per dropback rank)
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Intermediate Throws (11-19 air yards): 25th
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Deep Throws (20+ air yards): 16th
Richardson’s deficiencies shine brightest where Pittman does his best work. But even when they link up, defensive coverage limits any YAC. Or Richardson’s ball placement does the same.
Pittman’s overall usage indicates he’s still one of AR’s primary options. Without the TDs, we’ve got a buy-low situation on our hands. And, with interior receivers performing well against Chicago’s secondary, we should see Pittman’s production pick up as soon as this weekend.