Thursday, December 5, 2024

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire, Week 14: Welcome back Jordan Mason

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Quarterback

Russell Wilson, Steelers (Rostered in 35% of Yahoo leagues)

Wilson is the QB10 by points per game off the heels of a 414-yard, three-touchdown, evisceration of the Bengals.

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Since Week 7, Wilson is 11th in EPA per play and fourth in CPOE. Wilson and the Steelers face a Browns defense that has faded in 2024. Cleveland ranks 19th in EPA per dropback allowed and is a league-average fantasy matchup for opposing quarterbacks.

Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.

Bryce Young, Panthers (5%)

While anxious onlookers wait for the other shoe to drop with Young, he keeps putting together strong performances. Young threw for 298 yards and a touchdown with no picks and one sack. Young threw three interceptions in his first two games back starting in Week 8. The former No. 1 overall pick has not turned the ball over once in three subsequent games. Young is just inside the top 20 in EPA and CPOE since returning. He’s just a fantasy QB2, but six teams are on bye in Week 14 and we can fully take a mid-game benching off the table, greatly reducing the floor risk.

Will Levis, Titans (12%)

Much like Young, Levis seems to have figured some things out during his time on the bench. He returned in Week 10 and has multiple touchdowns in three-of-four contests. Levis is averaging 17.5 fantasy points and 240 passing yards during that stretch. The Titans face the Jags in Week 14. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing passers than Jacksonville.

Others receiving votes: Aidan O’Connell and Derek Carr

Running Back

Jordan Mason, 49ers (45%)

It’s oddly fitting that Mason was the biggest waiver wire add of the season to start the year and back in that position to close the year. Christian McCaffrey suffered a knee injury on Sunday and may miss the rest of the season. With the 49ers all but eliminated from playoff contention, it’s hard to imagine San Francisco rushing him back. Mason out-carried fellow backup Isaac Guerendo 13-3 and out-snapped him 24-11. Guerendo only ran five fewer routes and earned a target while Mason did not see a look in the passing game. The rookie will likely be used in a change-of-pace role to spell Mason, but the latter remains the clear No. 1 back to close out the year. This is a 100% FAAB situation.

Ameer Abdullah, Raiders (19%)

The Raiders’ backfield devolved into more of a committee in Week 13. Abdullah led the way with a 62 percent snap share and 61 percent of the routes. Backup Sincere McCormick took over as the primary option between the tackles with 12 carries to Abdullah’s 10. Zamir White and Alexander Mattison missed Week 13. If both are out for Week 14, Abdullah could hang onto RB3 value for a road trip to Tampa Bay. As underdogs to the pass-funnel Bucs, the Raiders won’t have many opportunities to establish their ground game, burying McCormick deep in the FLEX ranks.

Chris Rodriguez, Commanders (0%)

The Commanders walloped the Titans with a 42-19 score. Rodriguez, taking over RB2 duties in the absence of Austin Ekeler, earned 13 carries. He turned that into 94 yards and a score. Nearly all of his production was based on the blowout game-script. Rodriguez ran 12 times for 90 yards and his touchdown in the fourth quarter. Brian Robinson saw one carry at the top of the fourth quarter and got the rest of the game off. Rodriguez will remain involved to keep Robinson fresh. But, with the Commanders’ bye hitting this week and his value in Week 15 being modest at best, he’s only worth a stash in deeper leagues.

Blake Corum, Rams (14%)

Corum is making real headway in the Rams’ backfield for the first time this year. His 33 percent snap share and 23 percent route rate were both season highs. He also set a new best in rushing yards at 42 on eight attempts. His previous eight-carry game came in a blowout loss to the Cardinals. A one-score win over the Saints in Week 13 is a much more predictive sample. The Rams are underdogs to the Bills in Week 14, keeping Corum on the outside looking in for FLEX purposes, but his uptick in snaps could result in an RB4 ranking versus lame duck 49ers and Jets squads in LA’s next two games.

Ray Davis, Bills (17%)

The Bills got a blizzard game versus the 49ers on Sunday Night Football and met expectations with 30 running back carries compared to 18 pass attempts. Davis ran 11 times for 63 yards and a score. James Cook’s final carry came with nearly 14 minutes left in the fourth quarter as the Bills had this game wrapped up early. Davis saw seven carries from then onward while fellow backup Ty Johnson ran three times. Of note, Davis scored his touchdown in the first quarter. He remains nothing more than a backup to Cook, but the Bills close the fantasy season with potential blowout wins over the Patriots and Jets, putting Davis in a position to see more work in the fantasy playoffs.

Others receiving votes: Tyler Allgeier, Kimani Vidal, and Braelon Allen

Wide Receiver

Parker Washington, Jaguars (1%)

Washington posted a breakout performance in Week 13 with six catches for 103 yards and a touchdown on a dozen targets. He had a 29 percent target share on the day and a 28 percent target share after Mac Jones took over for Trevor Lawrence. With Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk done for the year, Washington is locked into a starting role and should see plenty of targets going forward, with or without Lawrence available.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Titans (17%)

He keeps getting away with it. NWI’s two touchdowns in Week 13 have him at a 21 percent touchdown rate this year. That is the second-highest rate for a receiver with at least 30 targes in the past quarter-century. This cannot and will not keep up. However, Westbrook-Ikhine does play a fantasy-relevant role for the Titans. Since DeAndre Hopkins was traded, NWI has an 18 percent target share and a 25 percent air yards share. He also leads the team with five end zone targets. While the touchdown rate will fall, NWI sees the ball enough to stick in the WR4/5 ranks.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Saints (31%)

Now this hyphenated touchdown scorer I cannot get behind. MVS has a 36 percent touchdown rate with the Saints. He has four touchdowns over his past three games despite catching seven passes on a 13 percent target share. There are worse bets to make off the waiver wire for Week 14, but there are also plenty better.

Adam Thielen, Panthers (10%)

The Panthers have become a fount of fantasy goodness since their Week 11 bye. Bryce Young is playing better and they are letting him sling it. Carolina has a +6% pass rate over expected in their past two games.

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This has led to loads of targets for everyone involved. Jalen Coker missed both games with a quad injury and doesn’t appear close to returning, leaving a clear starting trio of wideouts to fight for targets. This is the opportunities breakdown in those games:

Targets

Air Yards

Expected Points

David Moore

19

265

37.7

Adam Thielen

14

152

28.8

Xavier Legette

13

180

24.3

Thielen, playing primarily out of the slot, isn’t running as many routes as the other two receivers but upped his target share from 13 percent two weeks ago to a team-high 25 percent last week. I still give the edge to David Moore for Week 14, but Thielen is close behind. Even Legette is a viable FLEX play.

Others receiving votes: Ray-Ray, McCloud, Sterling Shepard, and KaVontae Turpin

Tight End

Tommy Tremble, Panthers (0%)

J’Tavion Sanders missed Week 13 with a neck injury and doesn’t figure to be back in the lineup anytime soon. Tremble took over the starting job and saw plenty of work, running a route on 96 percent of Bryce Young’s dropbacks while earning an 18 percent target share. He caught five passes for 77 yards. Both marks were career-highs for the fourth-year tight end.

Juwan Johnson, Saints (3%)

With the receiving room decimated and Taysom Hill going down with what appears to be a season-ending injury, Johnson set season-highs in route rate (79 percent) and target share (19 percent). He is playing a big slot role for the Saints, running 40 percent of his routes from the slot in Week 13. Johnson is tied for a team-high 10 catches out of the slot this year, half of which have come in his past five games. Down to practice squad call-ups across the board, the Saints will be forced to give Johnson more work in the coming weeks.

Luke Schoonmaker, Cowboys (10%)

Jaker Ferguson is likely back for Week 14, so proceed with caution here. Schoonmaker would be a great pickup if he weren’t in the picture. He upped his route rate to 79 percent—a season-high—in Week 13 and earned 15 percent of Cooper Rush’s targets. Schoonmaker has at least eight PPR points in each of his past three games.

Cole Kmet, Bears (46%)

With Hunter Henry and Zach Ertz on bye, Kmet takes the honorary “highest-scoring tight end available in over half of Yahoo leagues” title for a week. Like the entire Bears’ offense, Kmet’s production has been spotty to say the least. He has two games with 24+ PPR points, another with 13, and no others over nine points. He gets a 49ers defense that has given up at least 20 points in eight straight games and 30 points in back-to-back contests.

Others receiving votes: Noah Gray and Noah Fant

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