Sunday, December 22, 2024

Fantasy Football Week 3 matchups to exploit: Time for the Brandon Aiyuk breakout

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Aiyuk was limited in Week 1, running a route on 79% of the 49ers passing plays. This increased in Week 2 to a 93% route rate, an elite level, but the production was still missing. Through two games, Aiyuk has just six catches for 71 scoreless yards — not great for fantasy football managers.

But this should change in Week 3.

Aiyuk will face a Rams secondary that allows the most yards per passing play so far this season. Los Angeles allowed 121 yards to Jameson Williams in Week 1 and 130 yards to Marvin Harrison Jr. in Week 2. This is a great spot for Aiyuk, but it gets even better because Deebo Samuel is doubtful for this game.

Since Brocky Purdy became the starting QB in 2022, Aiyuk has played in six games without Deebo Samuel. In these contests, Aiyuk averages 15.1 fantasy points on 7.3 targets per game according to RotoViz. Start Aiyuk with confidence this week.

Swift hasn’t been good to start the season. Through two games, he ranks outside the top 36 fantasy RBs, producing a total of 72 yards on 28 touches. The interior of the Bears offensive line has looked rough. This is bad news for Swift, but there is some good news to discuss.

Swift has played 67% of the Bears snaps and handled 77% of the RB carries this season. He ranks 13th in RB usage according to player profiler and now he gets a great matchup against the Colts. Indianapolis allows the eighth-most yards before contact this season and it’s allowed both Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs to top 150 rushing yards the past two weeks.

Plus, the Colts just lost defensive tackle DeForest Buckner for at least the next four games. It may feel gross, but this is a strong matchup for Swift.

Cooper has just 27 receiving yards through two games. It hasn’t been pretty, but the good news is he’s seeing strong usage. Amari has earned a team-high 17 targets and leads the NFL with 170 air yards according to PlayerProfiler.

Cooper has three drops this season and one of those would’ve gone for a 50-yard touchdown; he’s been close to some big plays. But the important piece to take away here is Cooper is earning strong opportunities both downfield and in the red zone.

Eventually, this usage should lead to big performances, and that may start this week.

Cooper will take on the Giants who are allowing the sixth-highest EPA per passing play this season according to NFL Pro. Continue to start Cooper this week in a matchup he should be able to exploit.

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Robinson Jr.’s role has been strong to start the season. He’s played 59% of the Commanders’ snaps and earned 74% of the backfield carries. In Week 2, Robinson totaled 136 yards on 18 touches. He broke five tackles in this game and currently ranks top 10 on the season in broken tackles according to PlayerProfiler.

These broken tackle stats are important for his matchup this week. Robinson will face the Bengals who have allowed 160 rushing yards per game this season. But more importantly, the Bengals have struggled to tackle, allowing the sixth-most yards after contact this season according to NFL Pro. Despite being Washington being a big underdog, expect an efficient game from Robinson.

This one may seem gross — but hear me out. The Panthers benching Bryce Young and starting Andy Dalton matters. Dalton is a veteran QB who knows how to run an NFL offense. This should benefit all the Panthers’ skill position players — including Hubbard.

Believe it or not, the Panthers offensive line has been great to start the season. The free agency investments they made at their guard positions are paying off so far. This should help Hubbard, who earned 59% of the team’s snaps in Week 2 and handled 59% of the backfield carries.

This week Hubbard will face the Raiders who are allowing the most yards before contact in the NFL according to NFL Pro. Las Vegas also allows 6.1 rushing yards per play, the second-highest mark in the league. Hubbard isn’t a must-start player, but in a week filled with injuries you could do worse than flexing him in Week 3.

Higgins has missed the first two games of the season with a hamstring injury. But he’s trending to make his season debut in Week 3 against the Commanders, and the Bengals desperately need him.

Andrei Iosivas hasn’t been good while filling in for Higgins; he’s ranked 64th in yards per route run through two games and hasn’t been able to separate consistently downfield. The Bengals only have one completion of 20+ yards this season. This is exactly where Tee Higgins can help most, and he gets a great matchup to do so if he’s able to play in Week 3.

Higgins takes on a Commanders secondary that has allowed the highest EPA per passing play this season. Washington also allows 7.6 yards per passing play, the third-highest mark in the NFL. The Commanders just gave up five explosive plays of 20+ yards to rookie Malik Nabers in Week 2. Expect Higgins to have plenty of opportunities to produce for you in Week 3 if he’s active.

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