As Max Verstappen can wrap up the 2024 Formula 1 driver’s title this weekend in Las Vegas, the constructor’s championship is likely to go to the final race of the season. And Red Bull has very little chance of winning it.
Thanks to a strong summer from both of its drivers, McLaren leads the constructor’s standings by 36 points over Ferrari with three races to go. The Scuderia are 13 points ahead of Red Bull in third.
Red Bull entered the season as the prohibitive favorites for the constructor’s title. And for good reason. Verstappen and teammate Sergio Perez won 21 of 22 races in 2023 as Red Bull’s cars were miles better than anyone else.
That advantage looked to carry over into 2024. Verstappen won four of the first five races of the season. Carols Sainz’s victory at the Australian Grand Prix came after Verstappen was forced to retire the car in the opening laps because of a brake fire.
But McLaren’s upgrades at Miami in May set the stage for a summer where Red Bull found itself on the back foot. Lando Norris got the win in South Florida, though Verstappen won three of the next four races.
Since then, however, Mercedes-powered cars went on a run. McLaren and Mercedes drivers won five straight races over the summer and seven of eight. Ferrari, meanwhile, won three races before Versrappen finally got back to victory lane in Brazil on Nov. 3.
If and when Verstappen wins a fourth straight championship and unless Red Bull can pull off a miracle comeback over the final three races, the 2024 season will be just the third since the turn of the century where the champion driver’s team didn’t win the constructor’s title. And if Red Bull can’t pass either McLaren or Ferrari, the team’s third-place finish in the constructor’s standings will be the lowest finish for a team with the champion driver since Williams was fourth in 1982.
Quite frankly, Red Bull can blame its poor constructor’s standing performance directly on Perez. Verstappen has scored 393 of the team’s 544 points so far this season. He’s ahead of Mercedes in fourth all on his own.
Perez is mired in eighth in the standings and 39 points back of seventh. He has the fewest points of any driver on the top four teams and has borne the brunt of the lack of Red Bull car superiority. Perez had three seconds and a third over the first five races of the season. He hasn’t finished on the podium since and has five finishes outside the points over the last 16 races.
Ferrari, meanwhile, has been keeping pace with McLaren. Charles Leclerc has two wins and over the past nine races and hasn’t finished any lower than fifth in that span. Sainz won two races ago in Mexico City, and has finished in the top seven in all but three races so far this season.
McLaren is still the deserved favorite, however. The team is -700 to take the driver’s title at BetMGM as both Norris and Oscar Piastri keep scoring points on a regular basis. Both drivers have finished in the points over the last 10 races, and Norris’ only non-points finish of the season came in Austria when he tangled with Verstappen while racing for the lead in the waning laps.
If McLaren wins the constructor’s title, it’ll be the team’s first in 26 seasons. Though Mika Hakkinen won the driver’s title in 1999 and Lewis Hamilton scored the championship in 2008 while driving for McLaren, the team hasn’t won the constructor’s crown since Hakkinen scored his first title in 1998. A ninth constructor’s title will move McLaren from a tie with Mercedes in third to a tie with Williams for the second-most team championships in F1 history. If Ferrari can overcome that 36-point deficit in three races, the Scuderia will add a 17th title to their resume.