Just how good are Lando Norris’ chances of overtaking Max Verstappen for the Formula 1 title?
Norris enters the United States Grand Prix weekend 52 points behind Verstappen with six Grand Prix races and three sprint races to go. The USGP is the first of the three remaining sprint weekends, with a maximum of 34 points available. The winner of the sprint race will receive eight points (second place receives seven, third gets six and so on), while the winner of Sunday’s Grand Prix (Noon, ABC) can earn 25 points with an extra point for the fastest lap.
Norris is the favorite to get the win on Sunday, too. He’s +100 to win the race at BetMGM. Verstappen, last year’s race winner, is the No. 2 favorite at +400 while Norris’ McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri is at +500.
If Norris wins the sprint race and the Grand Prix while getting the fastest lap and Verstappen finishes second in both, he’ll gain just nine points on the three-time champion. That’s a decent chunk of points. But it wouldn’t be enough of a rate to catch Verstappen. Thanks to Daniel Ricciardo’s fast lap at the end of the most recent race in Singapore, Verstappen can still win the title finishing second to Norris in every sprint and Grand Prix remaining.
That’s why he’s still -190 to win the championship at BetMGM. Norris’ odds may be a bit inflated, too. Norris is +140 to win the title. But to do that, he’ll need some misfortune from Verstappen while avoiding problems of his own. And that may be too much to ask.
Since Formula 1 implemented its current points structure in 2010, a driver has overcome a deficit with six races to go just twice. And that driver was Sebastian Vettel.
In 2010, Vettel sat third in the standings and 31 points back of Lewis Hamilton after a 15th-place finish at the Belgian Grand Prix. Vettel went on to finish fourth and second in the next two races before winning three of the final four races of that season. And it was still an incredibly close points race.
Vettel entered the final race of the 2010 season 15 points back of Fernando Alonso and seven points back of Red Bull teammate Mark Webber. He scored the pole for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and led 40 of 55 laps while Alonso was seventh and Webber was eighth. That was just enough for Vettel to get a four-point win over Alonso.
Two years later, Vettel trailed Alonso again with six races to go. After a win in Singapore, Vettel cut Alonso’s points lead to 29 with six races to go. This time, he erased that deficit much quicker. Vettel’s victory in Singapore was his first of four straight and he took over the points lead from Alonso after the third victory. Following a victory at the Korean Grand Prix, Vettel was six points ahead of Alonso.
He never lost the points lead after that, though Alonso made it close in the season finale. Alonso finished second in Brazil while Vettel was sixth. Vettel went on to win his third consecutive title by just three points.
In each of the other 12 seasons, the driver holding the points lead with six races to go has gone on to win the title. That includes Nico Rosberg (+8) in 2016 and Verstappen (+6) during the iconic 2021 season.
That stat bodes very, very well for Verstappen. He has a significant advantage, even if Norris currently has more pace. But unless you’re a Verstappen fan, you can at least take solace in the fact that F1 appears to have a genuine title race on its hands. Two years ago, Verstappen had a 116-point lead at this point in the season and clinched the title with six races to go in 2023.