Sunday, December 22, 2024

Four Verts: Rams decimated, Sam Darnold rejuvenated and Saints … what??

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Week 2 in the NFL was filled with news and games that will affect the landscape of the league for the present and the long-term future. The benching of Bryce Young caught major headlines this week, but this week’s Four Verts column starts with a quality team that may have already had their season ended due to pure bad luck.

Every year, some team just gets swarmed with injuries that derail their season before it can really get going. This year, that team is the Los Angeles Rams. If their injuries weren’t documented, it would be difficult to believe that a team could pile up this many huge blows to their health before the end of September — and just about all of them are on offense.

Star wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, as well as starting offensive linemen Jonah Jackson, Steve Avila and Joe Noteboom, are all set to miss extended time, which is bad news for a Rams team currently 0-2 as the NFC West is shaping up to be one of the toughest divisions in football.

The offense that was supposed to be one of the most electric, well-rounded units this year is all but decimated. Matthew Stafford, the right side of their offensive line and their top running backs are really the only pieces that remain that had people excited. Kupp, Nacua, Jackson, Avila and Noteboom are set to miss several weeks to months as they rehabilitate their current injuries. Unless Stafford and the coaching staff can come up with something improbable, this is probably it for the Rams’ season.

Their biggest hope toward staying afloat as they deal with these injuries is a young defense growing up with haste. That’s a little tough to envision after they let the Lions march down the field in overtime in Week 1 before getting blasted by the Cardinals in Week 2. This is a task that this group isn’t ready for, which is fine. They’re incredibly young on the frontlines and time will be needed before they can be counted on week in and week out.

There isn’t too much else to say here. The Rams might have enough positive coaching and quarterback play to not be a total disgrace, but their ceiling and what they set out to achieve here is capped, if not just lost outright. Tough season for what was supposed to be one of the more watchable teams in the NFL.

Everyone, we need to have a meeting. An unforeseen force is brewing in New Orleans that has caught the entire football viewing public by surprise. Through two games, the Saints have been utterly dominant.

Crushing the 2024 Panthers is one thing, but they backed that up with a 44-19 win over the Cowboys to continue their hot start. The temperature was low on the Saints coming into the season, but they have been absolutely scorching to start things off here. They’ve been unequivocally the best offense in football through two weeks, scoring on their first 15 possessions of the season.

It’s hard to even grapple with this because it was just so out of left field. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak was hired from San Francisco to run the offense and so far, the results have been elite. According to Pro Football Reference, the Saints have averaged a blistering 4.38 points per drive, which is so astronomically good that there’s absolutely no way that figure lasts for the rest of the season. Elite offenses average around three points a drive, which is way below where the Saints are right now. This number will settle toward something that resembles a real-life offense rather than a video game one soon, but the results that have been produced by the Saints automatically have people wondering if this will be an elite offense this year.

The “Shanahan offense” has been brought to New Orleans. According to NFL Pro, 19 of Derek Carr’s 39 dropbacks so far have been with the use of play action. Carr is averaging 11.1 air yards per attempt on his play-action throws, ranking fourth in the NFL. Kubiak is keeping it simple so far. The Saints just crushed the Cowboys’ Cover 3 looks with crossing routes and routes that forced the Dallas cornerbacks to chase them all over the field. Defenses will adjust and take away some of the easy plays that have been there for the Saints up to this point, but there’s absolutely nothing to complain about just yet.

Every facet of this offense is rolling on all cylinders. Carr is off to the most efficient start of his career, averaging 11.4 yards per attempt and he only has four more incompletions (9) than touchdown passes (5) so far. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Saints also rank third in expected points added per rushing attempt (0.21) and have the second-lowest rate of run plays where the running back has been hit at the line of scrimmage (27.6%). Alvin Kamara is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and is on pace to score a measly 42 touchdowns this season.

As the Saints’ season progresses, figuring out which pieces of this run are sustainable for the long haul will be important. Right now, the offensive line looks like it might be that thing. Kubiak has been great at getting guys open down the field against single-high safety coverages, but the work the offensive line has put in, especially in the ground game, has been unbelievable. Rookie starting left tackle Taliese Fuaga is settling into that role faster than most people predicted, considering many saw him as a right tackle or guard prospect. He’s been mauling defenders in the run game and his pass protection has been just good enough for the Saints to hit big shots down the field.

All of this is a surprise. If the Saints even finished with a top-five offense for the rest of the season, that would be one of the biggest year-to-year improvements in the NFL. Hopefully the Saints enjoy this season with Kubiak because he is not long for an offensive coordinator role if this production keeps up.

Sam Darnold is the starting quarterback of the 2-0 Minnesota Vikings, who are a game ahead of the rest of the NFC North through the first two weeks of the season.

Hold on, let’s run it back one more time. Sam Darnold is the starting quarterback of the 2-0 Minnesota Vikings, who are a game ahead of the rest of the NFC North through the first two weeks of the season.

After a season-ending meniscus injury to rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy, Darnold assumed the starting role and has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in football. According to rbsdm.com, Darnold ranks sixth in expected points added per play (0.209), which is more efficient football than he’s played for the vast majority of his career. While the numbers are nice, and Darnold is playing better football than in the past, he’s also been a product of playing in a very quarterback-friendly environment, which he’s been able to take advantage of so far.

Justin Jefferson just reminded the world how great he is in an instant with a 97-yard touchdown where he was able to split the safeties and track the ball in stride. Jefferson, running back Aaron Jones, a solid offensive line and head coach Kevin O’Connell pulling the strings is without a doubt the best situation in which Darnold has consistently gotten the opportunity to play.

What Darnold has shown is that he’s a quarterback that will probably be just as good as his surroundings, much due to his own faults. He has the arm strength to make every throw on the field, and throws with incredible accuracy at times, but his decision-making has still had moments of recklessness, they just haven’t cost the Vikings games yet. Time will tell if Darnold remains one of the more efficient passers in the league, but as long as the ecosystem around him is healthy, he’s good enough for the Vikings to win a decent chunk of games this year.

This isn’t to say Darnold is playing poorly — he’s not, he’s playing great for his standards. He’s just not playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league yet. Even this two-game stretch is a great step in the right direction for Darnold, who still has hopes of being a long-term starter in the NFL after multiple stops. So far, so good, but Darnold has to be able to produce like this on a consistent level to get that long-term contract he wants from another team.

Time to close the door on the Bryce Young chapter and move ahead. There’s a somberness that comes with the realization that the quarterback of the future isn’t even the quarterback of the present, but that’s the reality that the Panthers have to face. Young was so bad that it was a disservice to him and the rest of the team to keep playing him, making room for long time quarterback Andy Dalton to take the reins as long as he can just put together a functional NFL offense.

The Bryce Young era in Carolina is over (for now). Andy Dalton takes the starting reins, and it's unclear how long he'll last too. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

The Bryce Young era in Carolina is over (for now). Andy Dalton takes the starting reins, and it’s unclear how long he’ll last too. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

The bar is low for Dalton. Young has only thrown for 451 yards over his past four regular-season games, which is such a low figure it’s hard to comprehend in today’s NFL. Even just getting to 200 total yards would be something that the Panthers haven’t done this season. A situation that bad makes it impossible to see what the future might hold for Carolina, and Dalton, in theory, at least gives them an opportunity to start evaluating what players might hold over for the new iteration of this offense in 2025, which seems like a longshot to feature Young at this point.

First-year head coach Dave Canales has been put in a brutal spot, but he has to figure out if his offense even works in the NFL. That just didn’t seem like it could happen under the previous setup. They’ve made additions to the offensive talent with offensive linemen Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, and wide receivers Diontae Johnson and Xavier Leggette. If those players aren’t put in a situation where they can produce and play credible, professional football it would just be wasting a season of time when the nature of the NFL gives so few seasons to the players that make up the league. They have to learn what is on this roster — and fast.

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David Tepper, the least popular man in Charlotte, has been the single most tumultuous team owner since he bought the team in 2018. His decision-making has left the Panthers in a dismal state where they aren’t even playing competitive football and look set to have yet another starting quarterback under his watch. Still, Tepper is quick to fire people if the results aren’t moving forward and Canales should operate under the assumption that he could be the next Frank Reich. That’s not a reality any coach wants to live, but it’s one he was flying toward with Young under center.

No one is under any delusions that Dalton will be the long term quarterback for this team, which puts future in doubt — again. As of now, the 2025 quarterback class doesn’t have a slam-dunk QB1 prospect ready to be the first overall pick, but perhaps someone will emerge from the fray as a top-of-the-draft possibility. The defense is bad enough right now that they should still finish with a top pick even if Dalton plays well, so they’ll be in position.

The next 15 games are about moving forward and evaluating the rest of the squad as Canales attempts to put his mark on the team. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but a necessary one. They were just too far below the acceptable level for NFL play.

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