Friday, November 22, 2024

From Deep: 3 super weird fantasy basketball stats to know

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The three-ball has become arguably the staple of scoring in the NBA — so we figured we’d take some shots from way downtown, too. Here, fantasy basketball analyst Dan Titus will break down three things fantasy managers need to know each week. Or, he’ll break down multiple three-point pieces of advice, analysis and more — it just depends on how open he is From Deep.

Today, I’m breaking down three weird fantasy nuggets that have stood out to me as we pass the midway point of Week 4.

Many wrote off the Dubs before the season got underway but the Warriors are off to an impressive 9-2 record to begin the year. Much of their success is drawn from their deep roster, composed of youth and overlooked vets who have seemingly bought into Steve Kerr’s philosophy of having fluid rotations as long as it’s translating to wins.

And it is!

But the weird part is, for how well this team is playing, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga — no one — is averaging over 30 minutes per game. Even in the load management era, having seven players average at least 20 minutes per game but none exceeding 30 minutes a night is unprecedented. Draymond Green is a top 100 player in 27.5 minutes, while Curry and Buddy Hield make up two-thirds of the non-centers whose production under 30 minutes provides fantasy managers with top 40 or better per-game value. Given Curry’s age, it’s probably best he’s not playing minutes like Kevin Durant (36), who’s already on the shelf with a calf injury.

Curry’s playing the fewest number of minutes since his third NBA season, yet his efficiency and productivity make him one of the top 10 players in fantasy right now. While unconventional in today’s game, Kerr’s introducing a unique wrinkle to his rotations, allowing his players enough playing time to be effective. He could also be setting up for a possible trade scenario down the line.

However the Warriors decide to move, they’re a well-oiled machine right now that’s getting contributions from nearly everyone up and down the depth chart.

The league leader in steals is none other than three-year pro, Dyson Daniels.

Daniels moved up to the fifth-shortest odds in the Defensive Player of the Year race, according to BetMGM, when he wasn’t even on the list of options to begin the year. He’s been a menace on defense, averaging an absurd 7.6 deflections per game on top of converting those deflections into over 3.5 steals per game.

Should Daniels keep up with this pace for the rest of the season, he’d be the third player in NBA history to average at least 3.5 steals per game. He’s amassed 23 steals over his last four contests, including three consecutive performances with six or more. Daniels is the fourth player in NBA history to swipe six or more steals in three straight games.

He’s good, but his length, depth and disruption have catapulted him into one of the top perimeter defenders in the league.

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Daniels went undrafted in 66% of Yahoo leagues and now, thanks to mostly his defense, he’s 78th in points leagues and 34th in per-game value in 9-cat leagues. I don’t want to discount what Daniels is doing offensively, though. He’s increased his scoring from six points to 14 ppg this season and improved his FG percentage to 47% through Thursday. Still, Daniels’ leap in fantasy production is driven by his current dominance in a regularly scarce category: steals.

As if a three-time MVP, a Finals MVP and one of the best players ever had anything more to accomplish, through 10 games, Jokić is on track to lead the NBA in rebounds and assists per game. No one has done that in league history since Wilt Chamberlain in 1967. When analyzing the Joker’s unreal start to the 2024-2025 season, he’s putting up the best numbers of his career on a per-minute basis. In fact, Jokić’s 1.78 fantasy points per minute is the second-highest rate since 1977.

It’s no surprise that Jokić is the No. 1 overall player in points leagues (67.73 fantasy points per game) and 9-cat formats. The Nuggets’ dependency on Jokić is fantasy gold and despite lackluster play from Jamal Murray, Jokić’ is raising the floor for Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr. and others. Fantasy-wise, he’s playing better than Wemby, but it’s still very early, and I still believe that Jokić and Wemby will be the top two players in each format.

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