From Deep: How Scottie Barnes’ return will impact 3 key players in fantasy basketball

The three-ball has become arguably the staple of scoring in the NBA — so we figured we’d take some shots from way downtown, too. Here, fantasy basketball analyst Dan Titus will break down three things fantasy basketball managers need to know each week. Or, he’ll break down multiple three-point pieces of advice, analysis and more — it just depends on how open he is From Deep.

Scottie Barnes is almost back!

Fantasy managers got a pleasant surprise on Wednesday afternoon when Raptors beat writer Josh Lewenberg posted that Barnes practiced in full and was upgraded to questionable ahead of Thursday’s matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves on X. He’ll wear goggles to protect his eye, but by all indications, we should see one of the most versatile fantasy players back in the mix.

He has missed the previous 11 contests with a fractured orbital bone and in his absence, the Raptors distributed his workload between RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and Gradey Dick. Now that Barnes is on the cusp of returning, what does this mean for that Raptors trio?

RJ Barrett

• The pros: Barrett’s been playing the best basketball of his career. Unfortunately, he’ll undoubtedly see less usage when Barnes re-enters the lineup. With Barnes off the floor this season, Barrett averaged 23.4 points, 6.5 rebounds and 6.8 assists with a career-best 31% usage rate. He has been inefficient, but the boost in assists and steals has helped him become a top-25 player in points leagues.

• The cons: Barrett and Barnes shared the court once this season, but when combining his numbers from last season with Barnes’, Barrett saw a 24.6 usage rate while posting 20.6 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. It’s not a significant drop-off, but the assists are less prominent. The efficiency, however, significantly improved with Barnes. Barrett shot 54% from the field and 40.1% from three with fewer turnovers.

• Final verdict: All this to say, Barrett remains a great option for points leagues, and fantasy managers might have a buy-low window emerging since most expect Barnes’ return to drive Barrett’s numbers down further. An efficient version of RJ is worth considering in 9-cat leagues.

Jakob Poeltl

• The pros: Speaking of career years, Poeltl is averaging 39 fantasy points per game this year. Kelly Olynyk’s been out with a back injury, leaving the Austrian big man with minimal competition for frontcourt minutes. It’s resulted in Poeltl playing 30-plus minutes a night, which is the most of his career. Poeltl is providing fantasy managers with steady volume as a rebounder and defender. Coming into this season, his best finish in 9-cat leagues was 71st. Poeltl is on pace to finish as a top-50 player now that he’s put up nearly 19 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 stocks per game sans Barnes.

• The cons: Poeltl’s scoring will likely regress once Barnes returns, but the rebounds and stocks should stick. I see the argument in selling high, especially after witnessing what he’s done over the last three games. Absurd work.

• Final verdict: I’m not selling at this point, but his elite play will likely draw interest from contenders once the trade deadline rolls around. Either way, Scottie Barnes’ return shouldn’t impact Poeltl as much as RJ Barrett from a pure counting stat perspective.

Gradey Dick

• The pros: Coming into Thursday, the second-year pro hasn’t endured much of a sophomore slump offensively. Dick’s increased his scoring output by 10 points per game this season, going from 8.5 points a night to 18.7 points per game. He’s been slightly more efficient this year, too. Dick’s true-shooting percentage climbed from .545 to .563. Basically, he’s become less accurate with more shot volume, but his ability to get to the line (4.3 attempts/g) and knock down 91% of his freebies counters the efficiency lost in the field. He’s also making the most of his opportunities on offense. His 22% usage rate is solid, but Dick is averaging the highest points per touch of any Raptor playing at least 20 minutes. He’s their best shooter in the mid-range and, with Barnes’ playmaking back in the fold, we should see Dick get better looks from beyond the arc as well.

• The cons: While that all sounds promising, Dick scored 15.4 points per game with Scottie in street clothes compared to 12.6 points when Barnes suited up. The scoring is coming down. Another issue with Gradey is that he does little outside of scoring and 3s. He’ll get 30-plus minutes, cool — but in four games playing alongside Scottie this year, Dick averaged 1.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists. He ranked as the 98th player in 9-cat leagues over that four-game sample, and while it’s been up ever since, I don’t see the upside if he’s not contributing to more categories.

• Final verdict: Fantasy managers have been abandoning ship with Dick’s rostership down by over 5% since Wednesday. While he’s exceeding expectations, I support the decision to drop him in most points and 9-cat leagues.