In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Jets vs. Cardinals
Arizona has done that weird thing where a defense goes from a slight run funnel to a borderline extreme pass funnel, all in the matter of about a month. Cards opponents over the past four games are 6 percent over their expected pass rate; even balanced offenses are leaning hard on the pass against an Arizona defense giving up the league’s tenth highest completion rate over expected and the highest drop back success rate.
This should match well with what the Jets have decided to do on offense over the past six weeks. Aaron Rodgers and company are 5 percent above their expected drop backs rate since Week 4, and on the season, only the Bengals, Seahawks, and Bucs have a higher pass rate over expected. Teams facing the Cardinals over the past month have passed the ball at a league-high 64 percent neutral rate.
Rodgers should be able to slice and dice the toothless Arizona secondary this week. The Cardinals pressure the passer at the NFL’s fifth lowest rate and give up the league’s fourth highest EPA per drop back. Look for another pass-first game plan for the Jets — barring, as usual, weird game script — that could fuel opportunity and production for both Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. The Cardinals are particularly vulnerable in the intermediate range, as only seven teams allow a higher completion rate over expected on pass attempts between 10-19 yards.
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Falcons vs. Saints
This is one straightforward: The Falcons, when they took on these Saints in Week 4, were 11 percent over their expected drop back rate. Though it didn’t produce a whole lot in the way of fantasy production — Kirk Cousins had 236 scoreless yards on 36 drop backs — but the game plan was clearly of the pass-first variety.
The collapsing Saints are now the fourth most pronounced pass funnel defense in the NFL. Seven of the nine teams to face New Orleans in 2024 have been over their expected pass rate.
The problem here is the looming threat of wonky game script. The Saints, having fired head coach Dennis Allen after two months of the worst play in recent NFL memory, are in freefall. It would shock no one if the Saints fall behind early and can’t compete — and generate neutral game script — against a superior Atlanta team. And as Funnel Defense Report readers know well, the Falcons want nothing more than to run the ball like it’s 1967. A hefty lead against the Saints would open the door for another heavy workload for Bijan Robinson.
If not — if the Saints can kinda sorta keep up with the Falcons — Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts and, yes, Ray Ray McCloud are in excellent spots with Drake London (hip) possibly sidelined. McCloud, who caught six of seven targets for 52 yards in Week 4 against New Orleans, is very much in play as a PPR flex.
Texans vs. Lions
Eleventh in pass rate over expected on the season, the Texans have shifted massively toward the run with their onslaught of wideout injuries. It’s not the worst strategy for a shorthanded Houston offense, though OC Bobby Slowik’s insistence of running the ball on first down every single time is going to jokerfy an entire generation of fantasy football managers.
Slowik and the Texans might have no choice but to establish the pass in Week 10 against the Lions, the league’s second most pronounced pass funnel. Almost every Detroit opponent goes pass heavy, including the Titans in Week 8 (2 percent over their expected drop back rate). Only two teams have seen a higher pass rate against them in neutral situations (when the game is within one score).
A pass-happy approach for CJ Stroud and the Texans would be a welcomed development for folks who drafted Tank Dell or those who picked up Dalton Schultz as a streaming tight end option. Schultz in Week 9 against the Jets caught three of his five targets for 21 yards while running a route on about 80 percent of the Texans’ drop backs. A matchup against an extreme pass funnel like Detroit could also benefit Xavier Hutchinson, who functioned as Houston’s de facto WR2 in Week 9.
Run Funnel Matchups
Steelers vs. Commanders
That Tyrone Tracy didn’t exactly go off in Week 9 against Washington doesn’t mean the Giants didn’t go full bore against the run-funnel Commanders. The G-people at one point in the first half called ten straight rushing plays (with little success, naturally). Their 49 percent drop back rate in Week 9 was a staggering 18 percent below expected.
When you factor for Arthur Smith, that means — per my back-of-the-napkin math — the Steelers could be 122 percent below their expected pass rate in Week 10 against Washington. This is analytics.
As a reminder: No team is a more extreme run funnel than the Commanders through Week 9. Washington’s past six opponents have been well below their expected pass rate, and 44 percent of the yards gained against the Commanders this season have come on the ground — the second highest rate in the NFL.
Najee Harris is the most obvious beneficiary here. He’s likely to see 20 touches unless the Commanders get out to a big lead against Pittsburgh. Don’t ignore Jaylen Warren as a halfway decent flex option though. The last time the Steelers played — in Week 8 against the Giants — Warren had nine rushes to 19 for Harris. Warren racked up 12 carries in Week 7. It appears he’s finally over the hamstring issues that plagued him in the season’s first month or so. I could see Warren getting 10-12 touches in Week 10 against a Washington defense being gouged for the second highest rate of rush yards before contact.
Pass volume for Steelers pass catchers should be very much limited in this matchup. It profiles as one of those games where George Pickens has a 35 percent target share, or a grand total of seven targets. I would caution against playing any Pittsburgh pass catcher besides Pickens if you don’t have to.
Giants vs. Panthers
Back to the aforementioned Tracy, who didn’t do much last week with a plus matchup against a vulnerable Washington front seven. He finds himself in another excellent spot this week in Germany against a Panthers defense that profiles as the fifth most pronounced run funnel.
Outside of a strangely pass-heavy attack by the Broncos in Week 8, almost every team is leaning toward the run against Carolina. It should set up well for a Giants team that was 18 percent below its expected drop back rate in Week 9 — an approach that could become common without stud left guard Andrew Thomas.
Tracy saw 16 of the Giants’ 23 rushes in Week 9 against the Commanders. He also ran a route on 16 of 29 New York drop backs, which isn’t altogether hateful.
Only five teams have allowed a higher rate of rush yards before contact in 2024, and only the Cowboys have a lower rushing stuff rate than the Panthers. Carolina opponents aren’t ripping off a bunch of long runs every week, but they are getting chunk gains in positive game script. The Giants, if Daniel Jones can manage it, should have plenty of good game script on their side in Week 10. New York enters the game as 6.5-point favorites. I see Tracy as a must-start in 12-team formats.