Well, we’re a month into the season, and just as everyone predicted the Minnesota Vikings are 4-0 and have the highest-scoring team defense in fantasy football.
No, really, it’s true.
The Vikings haven’t played great defense—especially of late. As a matter of fact, after four weeks, there isn’t a team in the NFL allowing more passing yards per game than the 274.3 the Vikes are giving up after Jordan Love’s huge game Sunday.
But even in a 32-29 shootout, the Vikings were still able to salvage a decent fantasy outing thanks to three interceptions, a sack and a fumble recovery. Through four weeks, the Vikings are second in the NFL with 10 takeaways and lead the league with 14 sacks. When it comes to the big plays that are the bread and butter of fantasy production, the Vikes just keep piling them up.
Is that pace sustainable? Frankly, probably not—especially if Minnesota’s secondary turns out to be a long-term issue (as it was a year ago). But right now, Jonathan Greenard, Camryn Bynum and the Vikings are absolutely a hot hand worth riding when a Jets offense that couldn’t find the end zone last week against the Denver Broncos comes to US Bank Stadium in Week 5.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Chicago Bears (vs. Carolina Panthers)
That the Bears are a .500 football team a month into the season says a lot more about the Bears defense than it does Caleb Williams’ development as a quarterback—the Bears are allowing less than 300 yards of offense per game, rank 10th in points allowed, have logged the NFL’s third-most takeaways and rank second in fantasy points behind the aforementioned Minnesota Vikings. The Carolina Panthers have been better offensively since Andy Dalton took over at quarterback, but Chicago is still a solid fantasy start in a week short on relatively safe bets at the position.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
The Steelers suffered the first loss of the season last week in Indianapolis, but at 3-1 Pittsburgh is off to a better start this year than most expected—and T.J. Watt and the defense get most of the credit for that success. Pittsburgh has been a top-five defense in terms of both yards and points allowed—only the Los Angeles Chargers have been stingier in that latter regard. Meanwhile, the Cowboys got a badly-needed win last week, but the offense isn’t the scoring juggernaut it was a year ago. Start the Steelers, as they say, with confidence.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
Granted, it came against one of the more anemic offenses in the NFL, but the 49ers looked in Week 4 like the defense we expected to see this season—San Francisco allowed just 216 yards of offense, forced three turnovers (returning one for a touchdown), pummeled Jacoby Brissett to the tune of seven sacks and posted the biggest fantasy line of the week among defenses. The Cardinals have scored just 27 points over the last two games combined, which sets the stage for two teams barreling in opposite directions—and a good defensive showing from the Niners Sunday.
Denver Broncos (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
The Broncos have won two games in a row, and it most assuredly hasn’t been because Bo Nix and the offense have been chewing up yardage and scoring tons of points. Just as they did the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3, the Broncos shut down the Jets in terrible weather last week, keeping New York out of the end zone, sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and allowing less than 250 yards of offense. The Raiders got a win at home last week, but the Vegas offense is inconsistent at best and the Raiders have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to defenses this season.
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. New Orleans Saints)
This may sound weird, but it’s true—the Kansas City Chiefs are a defensive team now, and that pendulum should only swing farther in that direction with wide receiver Rashee Rice likely out for the season. The Chiefs are eighth against the run and ninth in scoring defense, and star defensive tackle Chris Jones is coming off a two-sack game in last week’s win over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Saints were an offensive juggernaut the first two weeks of the season, but they have cooled way off since, and playing in prime time at Arrowhead is never an easy task.
New England Patriots (vs. Miami Dolphins)
The New England defense needs a hug—last week’s performance against the 49ers was less indicative of how good the Pats are defensively and more indicative of what happens when an offense goes three-and-out on 37 straight possessions. However, this week the Patriots face an offense that might even be worse than New England’s. Miami was abysmal Monday night against the Tennessee Titans, with Tyler Huntley failing to throw for even 100 yards in a blowout loss. Miami had 184 yards of offense in that game. Total. At home.
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STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Miami Dolphins (at New England Patriots)
Have I mentioned yet that the Patriots are a bad offensive football team? Like dead last in total offense and 31st in scoring offense bad? Like their best offensive weapon is a running back who can’t stop fumbling bad? Like third in fantasy points allowed to team defenses bad. Yes, the Dolphins just gave up 31 points to a winless Tennessee Titans team led by Mason Rudolph (at home, no less), but Week 5 is essentially Miami’s season—there’s a lot of difference between hitting their Week 6 bye at 2-3 instead of 1-4.
Seattle Seahawks (vs. New York Giants)
Starting the Seahawks in fantasy football requires a little selective short-term memory loss—in other words, throwing out what happened in Detroit on Monday night. Even after getting 42 dropped on them by the Lions, the Seahawks are still the NFL’s No. 1 defense in terms of yards allowed, fourth in scoring defense and prior to last week’s Motown meltdown Seattle was a top-10 fantasy unit. The Giants are struggling offensively once again this season—they were held out of the end zone last week and have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to defenses in 2024.
Green Bay Packers (at Los Angeles Rams)
Like the Seahawks, starting the Packers in fantasy requires a bit of selective memory where last week’s loss to the Vikings is concerned. However, there was actually something of a silver lining in that game—the Packers turned the Vikings over three times last week and sacked Sam Darnold twice. The Packers won’t be playing the NFL’s hottest team this week, either—the Rams are short their top two receivers and multiple offensive linemen and have surrendered the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses so far this season.
Washington Commanders (vs. Cleveland Browns)
The Commanders aren’t an especially good defensive football team—Washington is 27th in total defense and 25th in scoring defense. But the Commanders are coming off their best offensive performance of the season last week against the Arizona Cardinals, and this week the NFL’s hottest offense faces one of the league’s worst—the Browns are 31st in total offense, 26th in scoring and have allowed more fantasy points to defenses than any team playing in Week 5. Boy, that Deshaun Watson trade/contract really worked wonders for that franchise. Yes sir.
Las Vegas Raiders (at Denver Broncos)
This call would be a lot easier to feel good about if star edge-rusher Maxx Crosby is able to return in Week 5, but the Raiders got to Deshaun Watson of the Browns three times last week and played their best defensive game as a team of the season. Bo Nix may have led the Broncos to back-to-back wins, but Denver is hardly lighting it up offensively—the Broncos are scoring a whopping 15.5 points per game—good for 28th in the NFL. The Broncos rank just outside the top-10 in fantasy points given up to defenses this season, putting the Raiders on the streaming radar in Week 5.
Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
I’d love to start off this entry by writing something encouraging about the winless Jaguars, but I’m not that adept at fiction and I don’t want to insult your intelligence. The Colts haven’t been especially better, but they draw a favorable fantasy matchup this week against a reeling offense that has given up the eighth-most fantasy points to defenses this season. The Colts aren’t without some talent on defense in players like defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and linebacker Zaire Franklin—Indy drops the Jaguars to 0-5 and quite possibly gets Doug Pederson fired in the process.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Buffalo Bills (at Houston Texans)
On one hand, even after getting pasted on the road by the Baltimore Ravens a week ago, the Bills are still allowing fewer than 21 points a game. The Texans have also been inconsistent of late offensively, possibly because injuries at running back have made the offense more one-dimensional. But the injuries on the Buffalo defense appeared to get to the team last week, and the Bills struggled to generate any real pressure on Lamar Jackson. If Buffalo gives C.J. Stroud that kind of time in the pocket, he’s going to carve the Bills to pieces.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.