We’re just two weeks into the 2024 fantasy football season, and it’s important not to get too caught up in the early-season trap of reading too much into a small sample size. That’s as true on defense as it is at quarterback or running back. But there are a few things we can say with a fair amount of certainty.
There are at least a few matchups for fantasy managers to attack with team defenses. The New York Giants looked better offensively in Week 2 than in the opener, but that likely had more to do with a bad Commanders defense than improvement by Big Blue. The Carolina Panthers are most assuredly a matchup to target – the Panthers have been so gross offensively that first-year head coach Dave Canales decided that starting Andy Dalton at quarterback was a good idea.
But there have been surprises as well – after a dominant performance in Cleveland in Week 1, the vaunted Dallas defense was scorched to the tune of well over 400 yards of offense and 44 points by the New Orleans Saints – at home. After being stunned by the Las Vegas Raiders at home, the 0-2 Baltimore Ravens are barely ranked inside the top-20 fantasy defenses.
Now, some of these things will change – the Ravens and Cowboys will probably improve. The Panthers and Giants will probably not. But until we get a month or so into the season, defensive matchups are admittedly something of speculative exercise.
Of course, who doesn’t love some good old speculation?
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THE NO-DOUBTERS
Cleveland Browns (vs. New York Giants)
Week 1 didn’t go especially well for the Browns defense, although some of the blame for the 33 points the team gave up lies at the feet of an offense that was unable to do anything. But last week in Jacksonville, the No. 1 defense in terms of yards allowed last year got it in gear, logging four sacks and a safety in an 18-13 win in Jacksonville. Last year, the Giants surrendered 85 sacks and the most fantasy points in the NFC to defenses. The Giants were competitive last week but got pasted 28-6 by the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1, and the offensive line remains a major liability. Browns edge-rusher Myles Garrett has sacks in his first two games – look for him to make it three in a row Sunday in Cleveland.
San Francisco 49ers (at Los Angeles Rams)
The 49ers were mostly dominant defensively in the season-opener against the Jets, but San Fran is licking its wounds after a 97-yard Justin Jefferson touchdown played a major part in the team being stunned last week by the Vikings in Minnesota. Luckily, the Rams have just what the doctor ordered for the Niners offense, largely because the Rams locker room is currently filled with doctors. Los Angeles is short wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp and three starters along the offensive line. The Rams got mollywhopped last week 41-10 by the Arizona Cardinals last week, and given all the injuries it’s hard to see how the Rams are going to move the ball.
New York Jets (vs. New England Patriots)
The Jets got their first win of the Aaron Rodgers era last week in Tennessee, and now the team will play its home opener against a New England Patriots team that has been more competitive than most expected so far this year. This isn’t a game without some measure of concern – the Jets lost edge-rusher Jermaine Johnson to a season-ending Achilles tear, linebacker C.J. Mosley injured his toe and the Patriots have actually been a bottom-10 fantasy matchup for defenses in the early-going. But a limited Pats offense is going to crack at some point – like say Thursday night.
Buffalo Bills (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
The Bills had arguably the best defensive performance of Week 2, intercepting Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa three times and returning one for a score in a 31-10 rout. Big plays like that pick-six have elevated Buffalo to the top spot in the AFC among team defenses, and Monday night the Bills play host to a Jaguars offense that has struggled to move the ball this season. Trevor Lawrence and Company have yet to score 20 points this season, and the Jaguars have surrendered the 12th-most fantasy points to defenses two weeks into the season.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers are two of the more surprising 2-0 teams in the league this year, and for the Steelers the engine for that start has most assuredly been edge-rusher T.J. Watt and the defense—the offense has one touchdown in two games. The Steelers are fifth in total defense, second in scoring defense, lead the AFC in takeaways and currently sit sixth in fantasy points among defenses after a pair of solid performances. The Chargers represent Pittsburgh’s biggest challenge of the season to date, but if they can make the Bolts throw the ball to win Pittsburgh has a good chance to open the season 3-0.
Kansas City Chiefs (at Atlanta Falcons)
Some of the shine came off this game Monday night in Philadelphia—the Atlanta offense looked light-years better against the Eagles than they did in Week 1 at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers. But odd as it sounds to say, the Chiefs are a better defensive football team than the Eagles – and it’s not especially close. The Chiefs aren’t just going to let Kirk Cousins throw the ball all over the field with impunity. Their secondary is among the league’s best – second in total defense last year and fourth against the pass. And if the Chiefs can get out to a lead, they will pin their ears back and come after a quarterback in Cousins who isn’t exactly mobile anymore.
STREAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
Seattle Seahawks (vs. Miami Dolphins)
The Seahawks are another of the NFL’s surprise 2-0 teams, although wins over the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots (in overtime) don’t exactly scream “juggernaut.” Those matchups probably have as much to do with the team ranking seventh in total defense and 11th in fantasy points among defenses, and it appeared that the streaming party would end in Week 3 when Seattle hosted Miami’s high-octane offense. However, now that high-octane offense will be led by Skylar Thompson, and once he took the field last week for an injured Tua Tagovailoa the Miami offense did exactly jack squat.
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Carolina Panthers)
Canales’ decision to pull the plug on Bryce Young just two weeks into his second season is a little surprising – until you look at Carolina’s offensive stats. The Panthers are averaging all of 176.0 yards per game – dead last in the NFL. They are averaging 102.0 passing yards per game – only the Chicago Bears are worse in that category. The Panthers have scored 13 points in two games – both blowout losses. And the team ranks fourth in fantasy points surrendered to defenses. Andy Dalton might make the Panthers’ defense better. But he ain’t gonna make them good.
Chicago Bears (at Indianapolis Colts)
The first two games of the Caleb Williams era have been … un-good. Chicago’s supposedly revamped passing attack is averaging fewer than 100 yards a game. But the Bears are 1-1 because of a defense that has more touchdowns through two games than the offense. Anthony Richardson of the Colts might be an electrifying young talent at quarterback, but he has struggled mightily throwing the ball – after three picks a week ago the Colts are tied for the second-most giveaways in the league. Chicago’s defense is keeping the team in games – and it will do so again in Week 3.
Los Angeles Chargers (at Pittsburgh Steelers)
The Chargers are definitely playing Har-Ball – winning games with the run game and defense. The Bolts haven’t exactly faced any offensive powerhouses, but through two weeks only the Tennessee Titans are allowing fewer yards per game. No team in the league is giving up fewer points per game. The Los Angeles pass rush hasn’t been great, but it has been good. And while the Steelers may be undefeated, the team is also 30th in total offense and 26th in scoring offense. This has the makings of a low-scoring game that could be swung by a big play on defense. The question is which team makes it.
Green Bay Packers (at Tennessee Titans)
The Packers have been up-and-down defensively through two weeks – Green Bay didn’t play especially well in Brazil against the Eagles, but the team rallied with a solid performance last week against the Colts that included a sack, three takeaways and just 10 points allowed. Now the Packers head to Tennessee to take on a struggling Titans offense led by quarterback Will Levis who has made two of the most staggeringly bone-headed plays in recent memory in successive weeks. No team in the league has allowed more fantasy points to defenses this season than the Titans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Denver Broncos)
The Buccaneers are 2-0 to open the season, and the defense has played its part, holding the Detroit Lions to just 16 points last week in a win at Ford Field. But big plays have been in short supply, and a result so have fantasy points. That should change this week against the Broncos in Tampa – Bo Nix has struggled in his first two starts as Denver’s quarterback, throwing four interceptions without a touchdown pass. He has also been sacked four times, and the Broncos rank fifth in fantasy points given up to defenses.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Baltimore Ravens (at Dallas Cowboys)
Just about everything that’s being said about one team here applies to the other – both the Dallas and Baltimore defenses head into this Week 3 matchup coming off disappointing outings. Both face offenses that ranked inside the top-six in yards per game and inside the top-five in points per game last year. And both the 0-2 Ravens and the 1-1 Cowboys come into what was viewed not long ago as a Super Bowl preview badly in need of a win – especially the visitors. This should be an exciting affair. But it’s also one where the defenses will quite possibly get torched.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks