It is no secret that the Nations League has not been Northern Ireland’s favourite competition.
But their fortunes in the Nations League are beginning to turn around, with four wins in their last seven matches and they sit top of Group C3 with only one game left to play.
Michael O’Neill is developing a young Northern Ireland team that has bags of potential.
Promotion to League B could be sealed with a draw against Luxembourg on Monday, which could also creak open a back door into the World Cup in 2026.
Let’s take a look at the potential implications.
The story so far
Northern Ireland started their campaign at home to Luxembourg, when Paddy McNair and Daniel Ballard netted in a 2-0 win.
That was followed by the low point – a 1-0 defeat in Bulgaria.
Northern Ireland dominated Belarus in western Hungry but couldn’t find the breakthrough, but they saved their best to last.
O’Neill’s side put in a five-star performance to blow Bulgaria away in Belfast to put themselves top of the group and they cemented that position with victory over Belarus on Friday.
Now, it’s just a point needed in Luxembourg to earn promotion to League B.
The World Cup implications
Winning their Nations League group could also expand Northern Ireland’s possible routes into the World Cup in 2026.
Now, it has to be emphasised there is a lot of football to be played and plenty of ifs, buts and maybes – but stick with us.
Putting the Nations League to one side for the moment, the number of European teams in the 2026 World Cup will rise to 16.
When qualifying begins next spring, the 12 group winners will automatically qualify for the finals in the USA, Canada and Mexico.
The 12 runners-up will qualify for a play-off, and will be joined by four group winners from the Nations League.
Now this is where it gets slightly complicated and Northern Ireland’s Nations League finish becomes all the more important.
The four highest-ranked Nations League group winners who did not automatically qualify for the finals or secure a play-off through the traditional qualifying route will therefore be the nations that move into those extra play-off spots.
The 16 play-off teams will face a one-legged semi-final and final to determine which four teams will join the 12 group winners in the Americas.
First of all, for an idea of who it could be you have to take a look at the current group leaders in the Nations League.
Portugal, Spain, Italy and Germany are the leaders in League A with England, Austria, Turkey and Czech Republic in League B.
In League C, it’s North Macedonia, Romania, Sweden and Northern Ireland.
Now, the easiest and most straight-forward way for Northern Ireland to reach the play-offs or finals is to finish in the top two of their World Cup qualifying group.
Speaking hypothetically, should Northern Ireland top League C3 in the Nations League, but then get a difficult World Cup qualifying draw, O’Neill will want the other Nations League group winners to finish in their top two of their qualifying groups.
While Northern Ireland are in the third tier, they would move their way up the list of rankings of Nations League group winners if the traditional bigger nations qualify or secure a play-off as expected.
In the breakdown of the current League C teams, Northern Ireland are currently ranked at the bottom.
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North Macedonia (13 points)
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Romania (12 points)
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Sweden (10 points)
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Northern Ireland (10 points)
As things stand, if one opening was available to a League C side then as it stands, North Macedonia would be the beneficiaries, and then Romania, Sweden and, finally, Northern Ireland.
The Nations League now has added extra impetus, and all will become a lot more clear once the final matches have been completed.
The draw for World Cup qualifying takes place on Friday, 13 December.
What does O’Neill say?
For O’Neill, the potential World Cup implications aren’t at the forefront of his mind and promotion is his immediate focus.
“We want to progress and get to the next level of the Nations League.
“We’re a little bit unsure of what if affects down the line in terms of World Cup qualification and play-offs.
“I don’t think anyone really knows how that sits until the whole Nations League has played out.”
O’Neill added that it is still “out of our control” and he doesn’t want his side to get “bogged down” in permutations.
“The most important thing for us is to finish strongly in the group.
“We want to make sure in these two games that we take the maximum points that we can.”